Following a strong 2012 season, Michael Fulmer was considered one of the Mets’ top prospects. But after two injury-plagued campaigns and a strong influx of talent, he was on no one’s top 10 list coming into the season. We ranked him at 16 coming into the season and some thought that was too high. Yet after starting the year in extended Spring Training, Fulmer has come on like gang busters to once again be one of the club’s top guys in the minors.
In his last six games at Double-A, Fulmer has a 0.48 ERA with 5 BB and 41 Ks in 37.1 IP. The strikeouts are especially encouraging and can be traced to two improvements. One of the things that Fulmer mentioned working on early this season was his fastball command. Fulmer is regularly in the low 90s but not with a ton of movement, so command becomes even more important for him. And the other is the improvement in his changeup, which has become a swing-and-miss pitch. Fulmer also throws a breaking ball, alternately described as a curve or change depending on which day people see him.
Fulmer suffered a torn meniscus that required two surgeries to heal in 2013. Then last year he had bone spurs removed from his elbow. One of the top goals for Fulmer this year was just to remain healthy. That’s he’s been this productive on top of it in Double-A is very encouraging. A supplemental first-round pick in 2011, if Fulmer can continue to be productive, he’ll add to an impressive stable of Mets pitching prospects.
Triple-A
Dilson Herrera returned to Las Vegas and had just two hits in his first 14 ABs. But he’s returned to hitting the ball with authority, having a 1.026 OPS in his last eight games, with five of his 10 hits going for extra bases. Meanwhile, Wilmer Flores has a .604 OPS over his last 25 games, which includes his big series against the Dodgers.
Logan Verrett threw five scoreless innings with six strikeouts in his first start back with the 51s. In five starts for Las Vegas this year, Verrett has held batters to a .697 OPS and has a 3.27 ERA and a 1.182 WHIP. Meanwhile, Dillon Gee has an 8.06 ERA and a 1.836 WHIP in 22.1 IP in Triple-A. If the Mets return to a six-man rotation after the All-Star break and promote Gee for the job, it will be another decision from the seniority and hope school of management.
Double-A
Gavin Cecchini didn’t make Baseball America’s midseason top 50 list and he didn’t make the roster for the Futures Game, either. He just continues to put up numbers that would look solid for an outfielder, much less a shortstop at age 21. He’s tied for 14th in the Eastern League with a .361 wOBA and everyone above him is older. The next highest wOBA in the league from a 21 year old is the .304 mark by Pedro Severino.
Robert Gsellman has had a tough go of it since being promoted from Hi-A. His K/BB numbers have fallen from 3.36 to 1.88, his WHIP has gone from 0.941 to 1.417 and his ERA has leaped from 1.76 to 4.31 in a similar amount of innings at both stops. But in his last outing, Gsellman allowed just 1 ER in 7 IP and picked up his third win in eight decisions.
Hi-A
Dominic Smith got off to such a poor start in 2014 that he didn’t deserved a mid-year promotion. Smith again got off to a poor start in 2015, but it didn’t last quite as long and his rebound was even stronger. Still, it looks like he’ll be spending the majority of the year in the Florida State League. In his last 27 games, Smith has an .894 OPS, with nearly as many walks (10) as strikeouts (14). Overall, his .369 wOBA is the fourth-best mark in the league.
Logan Taylor is starting to put it together, as he has thrown three Quality Starts in his last four games. Sunday, he threw six shutout innings with eight strikeouts. Injuries have slowed Taylor down and at age 23 he’s a little older than you’d like to see in A-ball. But at 6’5 with a full repertoire, he’ll be given every chance to succeed moving forward.
Lo-A
Eudor Garcia has a .33/.412/.667 line in his last eight games, including three homers. Overall, he has a .746 OPS, one being dragged down by his home park. In Grayston Stadium, he has a .696 OPS while in road parks, he’s tallied a .779 mark. A 2014 fourth-round pick, the El Paso native has put himself on the map with a strong showing in 2015.
Vicente Lupo has had a season to forget in 2015. Maybe it’s an odd-even thing. In 2012, he burst onto the scene with an outstanding season in the Dominican Summer League. A year later he made his professional debut in this country but was nothing special. Last year he posted a .918 OPS in the Appalachian League. But this year he’s had a tough time in his full-season debut, to the point where consistent playing time has been scarce. He earned regular playing time with a quick start in July. But Lupo is hitless in his last five games. Overall he has a .663 OPS this season.
Rookie Leagues
Brandon Brosher has a .945 OPS for Brooklyn … Matt Blackham has 30 Ks in 23.1 IP for the Cyclones … Middle infielder Luis Carpio, who just turned 18, is batting .309 with a .397 OBP for Kingsport … Darwin Ramos has won back-to-back starts and has 23 Ks in 22 IP for the K-Mets … C Ali Sanchez is batting .360 for the GCL Mets … Merandy Gonzalez threw a seven-inning, no-hitter in his last outing.
I have been very interested in Fulmer for several years now. He may be the guy that allows the Mets to make a painful trade in the next year or two. He throws very hard.
On Flores, you do the exact same phony stat analysis as you accuse others of practicing: an arbitrary time-slice to support your obvious bias. Once you start cooking the stats, it really undercuts your point, IMO. If you wanted to pick a date that might possibly be meaningful, it could be when he was shifted to 2B, but that probably didn’t express the story you wanted to tell. Or you could pick July, because ESPN makes it easy, and point out a slash line of .357/.400/.429. Or take the last 10 games and say he’s hitting .395, more comfortable at 2B. With Herrera, I don’t get that sophisticated. He hit .195 for the NY Mets. I’m not saying that Flores has been great, btw, just trying to be fair & balanced (to borrow a phrase).
Dominic has really had an impressive season. Very encouraging to watch as he experienced abject failure and then overcame it. The power seems to be coming. Still a young man.
As for Cecchini, I’m hearing troubling things about the defense of late. He’s come along better than I expected, but still has a ways to go. But my bias is that I tend to prefer more obviously toolsy players. He does have plate discipline. I don’t discount him.
I like Verrett, too, I think he could be a valuable piece, but I don’t buy into the “seniority” narrative you keep pushing lately. That’s Matz & Syndergaard & Robles & Plawecki & Muno on the 25man roster, isn’t it? The only guy this really works for — after you account for the realities of player options — is Herrera. A dead horse.
You’re ready to throw Herrera under the bus over 93 PA (surrounding a DL stint) but each time I point out an equally poor (or worse) performance by Flores in an equal or greater length of time, I’m engaging in “phony stat analysis.” What a crock.
Is your hangup on batting average a clutch to grab whatever you can in support of your flimsy position or is it indicative of not understanding the superiority of OBP and SLG in contributing to run scoring? Because even though Herrera has a worse AVG than Flores, he’s got a better OBP in this stretch (93 PA for Herrera, 97 for Flores). And it’s even worse when we factor BABIP in. Flores holds a 59-point edge here. What happens when Herrera regresses positively to a normal mark? And while Flores has been at a .300 BABIP in his last 97 PA, that’s comfortably above what he’s established as normal for him.
It’s been 108 PA since Flores’ last homer. Have pitchers figured out you don’t throw the ball low and inside to him? Can he deliver power in any other spot? It was one thing when his five game hot streaks would include three homers. It’s going to be hard to live on hot streaks comprising a couple of doubles followed up by three weeks of crappy play.
But at least the All-Star break comes at a good time for him.
Fullmer, another minor league pitcher that has the potential as a major league starter, is added to the stable of blocked starting pitchers. 2015 and the Mets are 2 games from first and 1 game from a play in game with a few good rental players available. Is this stable of pitchers destined for the same fate as Gee, Montero and Verrett? A major league team builds their farm system to supplement the major league team, not the other way around. Trading prospects for inexpensive rentals has the potential for generating more revenue than the cost of the rentals.
Gavin Cecchini should be promoted to AAA since Reynolds is on the DL. Smith is another that should be promoted becuse there is no prospect playing first base at AA.
I don’t think this is necessarily true, Metsense. Promotions should be guided by what’s best for that player’s development, not necessarily filling holes in the organization. (Those are filled by “filler” players, until the true prospect is ready.)
Don’t get me wrong. I think the concept of “ready” has become murky in the minds of many fans. They want to wait and wait and wait until perfection occurs. My idea of “ready” is ready to face the next challenge.
Say what we will about Sandy Alderson, but he’s done some things very well. The development aspect of the system seems to be clicking along very nicely. In the past, I’ve bristled at what I perceived as the blind acceptance of all things Sandy. He was here two minutes and already we heard how he had “fixed” the barren farm system. But I must admit that there’s a lot going right down there, throughout each level (though Vegas is still a bad place).
“Promotions should be guided by what’s best for that player’s development” and in this case it is what is best of both these players developement. “My idea of “ready” is ready to face the next challenge,” and in this case both players are ready to face the next challenge.
The added bonus would be that their promotions would not be taking time away from any of other prospects ahead of them.
Sandy also customarily promotes players in midseson to the next minor league level if they are ready in his opinion. I guess your argument with me is that I disagree with Sandy on these two players but I don’t think my opinion is extreme.