At the All-Star break the Mets appeared to be buyers heading toward the trade deadline. They’ve lost five of seven since then, largely due to an anemic offense that desperately needs a jolt. The bad news is we are now just two games over .500 and behind the surging Giants, as well as the Cubs for the second wild card. With three more games against the Dodgers, the Mets could be under .500 by the end of the weekend. So, maybe we’re sellers now?
On the bright side, our primary playoff competitors – the Nationals and Cubs – haven’t been playing their best ball either, so we currently sit three games behind the Nationals in the National League East and also three games behind the Cubs for the second wild card. So, if we can muster a win or two this weekend, the schedule lets up a bit with a day off and then a series against the Padres. The next nine games are at home where the Mets are 32-15. Following the home stand, we head to Florida for three games a piece against the Marlins and Rays. We’re still in this thing. Let’s got get a bat or two!
Depending on what the market dictates, who’s available, who on our roster opposing GMs show interest in, and finally, how the Mets play over the next week, Sandy Alderson could take any of four approaches to the trade deadline.
#1 – Go for it! We’re buyers.
Not too many teams wouldn’t want to get their hands on one of the Mets young aces. Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and even the injured Zack Wheeler, are all potential number one starters who are cost controlled for at least another two seasons. They all have tremendous value and any one of them could be the center piece of a blockbuster trade that could bring back a franchise bat. Problem is, the young franchise bats like Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper and Mike Trout aren’t going anywhere. The Mets option would be to go all in on a guy like Troy Tulowitzki, Joey Votto or Prince Fielder. Assuming they could stay healthy for a few years, we’d likely get two or three seasons of high level production before getting stuck with an enormous dead weight contract (see: Howard, Ryan). Back in the 1980s the Mets made such a move to get Gary Carter, who similarly gave us two big seasons before really showing his age. However, Carter proved to be the missing piece and helped us win the 1986 World Series, so no fan questions that move. If say, Tulo, could be that piece, maybe it would be worthwhile. However, Tulo wouldn’t be joining a lineup with speedsters and table setters he could drive in like Lenny Dykstra, Mookie Wilson, Wally Backman and Tim Teuffel. And he certainly wouldn’t be sandwiched between a .300 hitting Keith Hernandez and home run hitting Darryl Strawberry. He’d be joining a lineup that features no speed, little power and a lot of .250 hitters. While Tulo, Votto or Fielder would certainly improve our offense, the sacrifice of a big arm plus a massive salary commitment is not worth it at this time.
#2 – Wait til next year. We’re selling.
We could throw in the towel on 2015 and focus on next season when the salaries of Daniel Murphy, Bartolo Colon, Bobby Parnell and Dillon Gee all come off the books and we get back our injured players like Zack Wheeler, Josh Edgin, Jerry Blevins and hopefully David Wright. In the meantime, we could try to trade any of the soon-to-be free agents, as well as other non future core players like Jon Niese, Ruben Tejada and maybe some of the relievers. We could bring back prospects to restock the farm system and open up a spot in the rotation for Matz when he returns and in the infield for Dilson Herrera. This approach would further kill the morale in the team’s clubhouse and alienate an already frustrated fan base. This approach would be an awful business decision that would result in an empty Citi Field in August and September. For attendance and TV ratings, Alderson would be wise to avoid this option.
#3 – Stand pat. Do nothing.
This is the option that would anger Mets fans the most. It seems inconceivable, yet this is what we’ve done each of the past few seasons. Lots of pre-deadline chatter leads to a press conference where Alderson explains that the right deal didn’t present itself and that the August waver deadline is the more likely target. If he punts this year, he’ll be looking at an empty stadium.
#4 – Play chess. Go for it now and next year.
Rather than trying to target the exact right fit, Alderson should check in with every single general manager to find out what they’re needs are and who is available. Maybe we make one big trade with a team like the Brewers or Reds who have a need for youth and several players who could help us. Or maybe we make a series of small strategic moves or bring in a third team if needed. Alderson needs to be creative here. This option is the way to go.
Aramis Ramirez and Scott Kazmir have already been traded. With Kazmir off the table, Niese gains value, particularly the way he’s been pitching. The Dodgers could certainly use him and they have a surplus of outfielders. Outfield should be the number one priority. Carlos Gomez, Justin Upton, Jay Bruce or even Gerardo Parra would not only improve the lineup, but they’d allow Terry Collins the flexibility to platoon Michael Cuddyer at first with the struggling Lucas Duda. In that scenario, Cuddyer could also DH against AL teams and we could give Curtis Granderson and Juan Lagares some rest. And, get this, we’d actually have someone on the bench who hits better than .200. At the same time the right package of prospects should be able to net us Ben Zobrist or Martin Prado – a seasoned veteran who could play multiple positions this year and next. Such deals might not be enough to put the Mets in the playoffs this year, but it would be enough to keep the players motivated and the fans interested, and those are two of Alderson’s top job responsibilities.
Our only move will be promoting Conforto, which they have just done.
The problem with articles like this is that they go a long way but don’t say anything. To make a trade one does not need to give away Top Talent, like Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz or Zack Wheeler. The Mets can make a trade for someone who can make an impact and not trade a young superstar pitcher.
Consider the Aramis Ramirez deal. The Pirates took on some salary and traded a player who reached AAA this season. Now, Ramirez isn’t a “Top Talent” but he would seriously improve the anemic lineup.
Options 1-4 are irrelevant. The Mets are in a situation where their pitching is Top Flight and their hitting is pitiful. The only option is to make what deals you can to improve the offense without trading one of those 5 players. The key here is that Alderson can’t take a bad contract for a minimal prospect investment.
Consider Carl Crawford. The Dodgers could afford to move Crawford without too much enui but Crawford is owed over $40 Mil through 2017. Even should the Dodgers kick in cash the Met ownership would not be willing to increase the payroll.
The other issue is that the “Top Players” are so shiney that players like Michael Fulmer, Brandon Nimmo and Gavin Cecchini look like lumps of coal in comparison.
So Alderson won’t make deals and he’ll probably be fired but the only people to blame are the owners.
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I actually think some trade will happen. I’m not even sure why I think so, it not a logic based prediction. I’m just channeling my inner fortune teller.
One negative thing to keep in mind is that when Sandy says he is not trading any of his four top pitchers, that tells us a lot. It is a clear sign of a guy looking for cover, afraid or unable to do anything big.What if the Cubs offered Kris Bryant for Matz, and tossed in Addison Russell. Sandy wouldn’t do that deal?
Now relax, I get that the Cubs wouldn’t do that deal. But my point is, there is no good reason to publicly say a number of guys are off limits.So to get back to my thought above, why would he say it? He wants to plant the seed that everyone is demanding those guys (you want Alexi Ramirez we want deGrom!!!!). He does this all the time. In 2013 the word was everyone wanted Wheeler. In 2014 it was everyone only wanted Noah. And other teams keep making reasonable trades. So perplexing.
Yesterday Sandy Alderson made it a point to tell the writers, “I know you don’t believe me.”
Whose fault is that?
This time he’s trying reverse psychology.
Too much whining. Conforto is now here, darnaud is coming back soon, and the trade deadline is still 8 days away so sandy still has time to add another piece. The problem is all these teams demand one of our young arms even for a utility guy like zobrist so you cant blame sandy for being hesitant
Looks like we’re about to send some marginal prospects to the Braves for Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe. It’s a start.
Johnson/Uribe is a great trade…two professional ballplayers/bats….it provides flexibility and allows for further moves.
This will test this manager’s ability to mix, match and optimize.
Uh-oh.
+1, +2, and +3. We know what happens when Collins has options…
Our first impression of Chris Johnson:
http://www.ajc.com/videos/news/braves-kelly-johnson-reacts-to-trade-to-mets/vDXnLp/
I like the Uribe/Johnson deal. Replaces AAAA players with legit major leaguers. Now we need one more deal. Despite his quality defense, I’m done with Lagares. He’s useless at the plate. I want to see a trade for Gerardo Parra. He fits a need and won’t cost premier talent.
Parra would be a fit and not cost too much, only some minor league pitching. If Wheeler is on the trading blocks, then I think a package for Jay Bruce would be the route I would take.
Alderson turned down Gee for Uribe on May 27th. His inability to make a decision stopped the Mets from having a useful player for two months. There was no excuse not to make that trade because Uribe is still a better player than Muno or Campbell. Gee had no future in the Met plans.
I liked Ramirez better than Uribe at this point and he could have been had.
Johnson and Uribe for two minor league pitchers that would never have seen the locker room of Citi Field are the kinds of trades that a potential playoff team makes.
Just reading some reports, the Brewers think there will be a lot of interest and the price moved up. The last grasp Sandy made before promoting Conforto was going hard on Parra.
I feel like the Brewers are the right team to deal with. Could package prospects for Parra and Segura or swing a bigger deal that includes Wheeler and/or Lagares for Cargo. Reds have some hitters but I dont see a perfect fit. votto i too pricy, Phillips is long in the tooth and Bruce is limited. Lokk how he performed last year without protection from Votto and Phillips. Reminds me if Bobby Bonilla – put up great numbers when protected by Bonds and Van Slyke then dissapointed in NY.