When it comes to Juan Lagares, expect the unexpected

The Mets are in a race for the playoffs and most nights Juan Lagares is on the bench. It’s not something most of us, much less his avid supporters, pictured coming into the season. Yet, viewed within the roller coaster ride that’s been his career with the Mets, it makes perfect sense. Lagares’ rise to the majors was anything but typical and his career path continues to make more turns than a two-lane mountain road.

Most of the top Latin ballplayers sign in July when they’re 16. But Lagares was a latecomer to baseball and did not sign until he was 17. He was a raw shortstop but instead of being given plenty of time to hone his skills, he was placed in a full-season league at age 18. Lagares spent parts of four seasons in Savannah and converted to the outfield in his third season in the South Atlantic League.

In his fourth season in Savannah, Lagares finally produced a good year with the bat, putting up a .777 OPS in 307 PA and earning a promotion to Hi-A. But he struggled mightily in St. Lucie, earning a return ticket to Hi-A in 2011. That year would be the breakout season that would put Lagares in the front of prospect hounds’ minds.

Lagares had a terrific year in the Florida State League, putting up an .873 OPS in 335 PA. That earned him a ticket to Double-A, where he performed even better. In 170 PA at Binghamton, Lagares put up a .903 OPS, thanks in large part to a .439 BABIP. He returned to Binghamton for the 2012 campaign, which was spent entirely in Double-A. That year he put up a more normal .337 BABIP and saw his OPS fall from .903 to .723 which cooled his prospect status, considerably.

The conventional wisdom at the time was that Lagares could play center field but was probably more suited for a corner spot. He did set a personal-best with 21 steals, however. It seemed he was destined for a reserve outfielder role. Lagares could hit some singles, run and cover all three outfield spots. That was the type of profile that could get you to the majors; it was not one that you would expect a club to be so excited that they would buy out your arbitration years plus one year of free agency.

We’re so used to players getting bad breaks in the game of baseball. But all of the planets aligned for Lagares in 2013. After wowing observers in Spring Training with his defense, Matt den Dekker broke his wrist. Collin Cowgill was told he was the starting center fielder and then lost his job after one week and was sent to the minors after 52 PA. The corpse of Rick Ankiel was brought in and he was terrible, as expected.

Meanwhile, Lagares opened the year in Las Vegas, where he put up a .346/.378/.551 line in 82 PA. Also, this was the Mets’ first year with their Triple-A affiliate in the desert. We knew that the league and the park inflated offense but no one knew yet how to properly view numbers produced there. In Buffalo, those would have been insane numbers. In Las Vegas, they were considerably less impressive.

By our research, those numbers translated to a .306 OBP and a .363 SLG in the majors.

But the result in 2013 was a promotion to the big club. Lagares mostly sat on the bench after his recall. He didn’t hit but he looked like a complete natural in center field, making a mockery of those minor league reports that said he was better suited for a corner spot. And then Lagares went on a hot streak at a perfect time.

From June 20 to August 1, a span of 113 PA, Lagares posted a .340/.384/.524 line. Combined with his defense, which was now at Gold Glove levels, he looked like a future All-Star. Anyone who pointed out that he had a .442 BABIP in this stretch was viewed as nothing more than a killjoy. Lagares was a success in a season where good stories were hard to come by in the majors for the Mets.

In the final 54 games of 2013, Lagares recorded a .212/.255/.291 line over 218 PA. His OPS struggled to exceed his SLG from his earlier hot streak. In the fans’ mind, that didn’t matter; the story had already been written. But the suits had a different take. Instead of viewing CF as a position wrapped up for the next 15 years, they saw a potential problem, instead.

Chris Young was imported prior to the 2014 season. He would fill one of the corner outfield spots but he was there if necessary to take over in center if Lagares failed to reproduce his numbers from a season ago. Here’s how Adam Rubin reported the situation in November of 2013:

”This is an issue that came up with Chris, and I actually think there were other clubs that offered to play him in center field without condition,” Alderson said Tuesday afternoon. “In our case we talked about Juan, talked about his defensive ability, his need to be more productive offensively. We didn’t rule out Chris playing center field by any means. But I told him, and I think Terry [Collins] told him as well, that the best player defensively — assuming that there’s productivity offensively — will play center field.”

Still, conspiracy specialists insisted that Young was brought in only to play center. However, Young started the year injured, Lagares hit right out of the box and the bottom line was that Lagares kept his job.

While the front office was rightfully skeptical about Lagares following the 2013 season, it discarded those fears without hesitation following 2014. First, Lagares signed a long-term deal that included an option for the 2020 season. Then they sent den Dekker out of town, eliminating the system’s best option for CF should anything happen to Lagares.

The Mets went all-in on Lagares as a star.

Meanwhile, the fact that he played only 121 games and ended the season on the disabled list was not considered a worry. Neither was the fact that Lagares needed a .341 BABIP to produce a .703 OPS in 2014. The average CF posted a .726 OPS last season.

The 2014 season ended early for Lagares because of an injured elbow. And the elbow continues to be a problem today. There are even rumors he may need TJ surgery to fix it. Additionally, Lagares has also had problems with his ribs this year. The various injuries have affected him on both sides of the game. He’s seen his UZR/150 fall from 25.3 to 6.5 this year. And Lagares has a .253/.280/.336 line after 378 PA.

It’s important to note that his current .616 OPS comes with a .300 BABIP.

Meanwhile, the Mets imported Yoenis Cespedes at the deadline to be a big bat in the middle of the order. And most nights now, Cespedes is roaming CF while Lagares sits on the bench, only to come in as a late-inning defensive replacement. Cespedes is built like a tank but if nothing else passes the eye test in his brief time in Citi Field. Obviously, he’s nothing like 2013-14 Lagares out there. But no one dreads seeing a ball hit to him, either.

Cespedes was brought on as a rental, a guy to play for a couple of months and then move on to greener pastures. But since he’s been here, the fans have welcomed him with open arms and at the very least, Cespedes is saying all of the right things. Again, from Rubin:

””This is something I can’t control,” Cespedes said through an interpreter Tuesday afternoon. “I don’t know what the front office is thinking about. But with what I see so far, I would love for everything to work out and stay as a Met for a long, long time, because I like the atmosphere.”

It’s very possible this is nothing more than an athlete playing the PR game. But let’s say the Mets make the playoffs and make a little noise along the way, too, with Cespedes playing a key role. Is it beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Mets would let him walk? And with Curtis Granderson turning back the clock to 2012 and Michael Conforto ready to take over in the other corner, wouldn’t Cespedes fit best in center?

To be sure, it’s a lot of speculation. But if this situation actually developed, Lagares would be the odd man out. It would be a remarkable turn of events for 99% of players in MLB. But if it happened to Lagares, it would just be the latest in a career that has never played out in an ordinary way.