The New York Mets are on a roll these days and the baseball world is taking notice. They’ve been the focus of MLB ad campaigns and even stealing the back pages of the New York newspapers from their cross-town rival Yankees.
Yes, life is good currently in Queens these days, but it almost wasn’t this way. In fact, if fans and media had had their way this past winter, the Mets would’ve been without three of their major contributors now: Daniel Murphy, Jon Niese and Wilmer Flores.
After a flurry of moves in the past few weeks to get the team beyond the competitive point and to the point of being legitimate contenders, we can easily point out what Mets GM Sandy Alderson has done well. It’s a little more difficult to give him the credit of showing patience and foresight to not deal these players.
There’s a country song by a former Mets hopeful and celebrity superstar singer Garth Brooks that’s called “Unanswered Prayers”. In this song, he writes about how he and his family ran into his old high school sweetheart. He begins to reminisce about old times and how much he swore that she was “the one”.
He recalls praying and sincerely wishing for her to be his for the rest of his life. Then, he remembered the present day as he looked into the eyes of his family. He thanked God for not answering that prayer.
As fans, we are in the same position now. Had the baseball gods answered our prayers, we would not have had so many clutch hits from Murphy this season, including the game-winner against Colorado the other night.
We wouldn’t have had the tear-jerking moment of Wilmer Flores breaking down at the news of his trade, just to be given multiple standing ovations the next day including one for a game-winning home run in extra innings.
We, also, wouldn’t have been able to see the dominant streak Jon Niese has been on as of late that has been a crucial part of the team’s rise into first place.
First, Daniel Murphy’s contributions (.281 AVG, 8 HR and 42 RBI) can not be overlooked. At the end of last season, nearly everyone was screaming for the team to trade Daniel Murphy, citing that he is such a bad fielder that he costs the team. The theory is that his defense is more of a detriment than his offense is an asset.
Given his $8M salary this season, it’s not hard to see why people were frustrated with every indecision and even more so with every error. The fact is, however, that Murphy has been pretty good at second base this season.
Keeping one other major point in mind, the Mets have needed Murphy even more since David Wright began his long and uncertain road to recovery. They have needed the veteran presence in the everyday lineup and they have certainly needed a good bat in the order with a vacancy at third base.
While playing his usual position of second base, he has four errors in 193 chances or a .979 fielding percentage. Is that terrific? No. But, it’s not horrible when compared to others that are supposed to be better overall at that position.
For example, Kolten Wong (.268 AVG, 11 HR and 49 RBI) of the St Louis Cardinals has ten errors in 526 chances or a .981 field percentage or Addison Russell (.241 AVG, 7 HR and 30 RBI) of the Chicago Cubs with nine errors in 386 chances or a .977 field percentage.
In order for Murphy to be on that pace, his entire fielding performance this season has to be considered. That means adding his time at third base with his six errors to total ten in 298 chances. Given a full season up to this point, perhaps Murphy would have a few more totaled but certainly less at second base than Wong.
Compared to these worst fielding second basemen, his offense is far better than either option. It’s more on pace with Brandon Phillips of the Cincinnati Reds (.288 AVG, 8 HR and 40 RBI), with the exception of stolen bases (17).
In the case of Murphy, his above average offense makes up for his average (at best) defense more often than not. His ability to gain the clutch hit also must be considered. If he had not missed time this season, he may actually be more on pace for the beloved Troy Tulowitzki (.290 AVG, 15 HR and 59 RBI) whom most people wanted to see Murphy traded for.
Next is Wilmer Flores. His contributions (.254 AVG, 11 HR and 44 RBI), to this team, this year have been nearly invaluable. His open display of emotion which helped to bond this team aside, his play on the field has been give and take just as the aforementioned Murphy.
When talking of Flores, his glove must be the first part of his game to be discussed. He has ten errors at SS this season in 309 chances or a .968 fielding percentage. Is that average at best? Not really. However, there are two things to keep in mind.
One, if we are going to simply dismiss his fielding abilities, then his time at second base must also be considered. At second, he has zero errors in 124 chances. That creates a .983 total fielding percentage in 433 chances. At the very least, this shows that he can defend at a decent rate in the major leagues.
Secondly, he may not be the sure-handed defender at SS that we all want, however, when compared to everyday veterans, he measures up to a few. For example, Ian Desmond of the Washington Nationals. Desmond has 22 errors in 453 total chances. Also, Sterling Castro of the Chicago Cubs has 18 errors in 470 chances.
When comparing his errors per chances ratio (roughly 3 out of every 100), Flores would be around 14 total errors as a SS. This is far fewer than either of these full-time shortstops. That is closer to Jean Segura of the Milwaukee Brewers (14 errors in 431 chances) or Freddy Galvis (12 errors in 440 chances).
While he’s not close to leaders like Andrelton Simmons of the Atlanta Braves (3 errors in 481 chances), he’s not too far from the middle of the pack.
When examining the offensive side, he matches up favorably in all major categories in the NL. He ranks fifth in home runs (11), eighth in AVG (.254) and sixth in RBI (44). All are respectable totals given his inexperience. He has only become better as the season has gone on.
In July, he batted .299 and is hitting .308 so far in August. Given a slow start that had him making up a lot of ground, his .254 AVG isn’t bad. His power numbers have cooled off recently, but the one he has since the All-Star break was one of a walk-off variety. He has shown himself to be a streaky hitter, so the power most likely will return.
One last thing to keep in mind is his age. At the age of 24, he’s still learning and getting better. This is only his second full season and the first in which he has had 100 or more at bats.
Had Alderson traded him, the team would lose a player with a bright future in exchange for a veteran with only a little more upside than Flores at the cost of possibly losing a young pitcher in a deal that included him.
Finally, where would this team be without Jon Niese? With all of the talk in February about Matt Harvey returning, Jacob deGrom coming off of a Rookie of the Year award campaign, the potential debut of Noah Syndergaard, not to mention the presence of Bartolo Colon and Zack Wheeler, it seemed that Niese and teammate Dillon Gee were the odd men out.
As everyone continued to second guess and speculate, Alderson waited for the right deal. It never came. Zack Wheeler injured his throwing arm and Niese became in demand once again.
As Gee became injured to begin the season, Niese continued to be a consistent contributor in the rotation. With the sudden emergence of Stephen Matz, he pitched his way into the six-man rotation conversation.
He’s had some hard luck losses and some games where it just wasn’t there along the way, but in the past few months, he’s been as good as any pitcher in the league.
In his last ten starts, his ERA has dropped from 4.21 to 3.46. A dramatic change like that is proof that he is definitely figuring something out. In fact, in that span, he has only had one stinker (six runs vs LA on 7/24) and three of his five losses in that same time frame were one run differentials. If any of those games broke another way, Niese would have a record much better than the current 7-9 mark that he’s sporting.
In his eighth season, Niese has not been anything other than a .500 pitcher (59-60 career record) that displays the talent to be more. If this season has shown anything, it’s that perhaps, he’s finally reaching that next level with all of the talented competition in that rotation to keep up with.
As the resident veteran of more than five years service, his example is critical to the phenoms that are on display daily for the Mets.
Had he been traded, the team would be scraping for another way to figure out how to stretch out the younger pitchers innings with Matz, Wheeler and Gee all currently injured. That, in and of itself, is a major, yet underrated, factor for the potential success of this team in the long run.
In closing, the New York Mets have pulled the right strings at the right time this season. Among those strings are the ones that GM Sandy Alderson didn’t pull.
How different would this season be right now without the several key hits from Daniel Murphy and Wilmer Flores. This team has endured the losses of David Wright, Michael Cuddyer, Travis d’Arnaud, and poor season performances from Kirk Nieuwenhuis,John Mayberry Jr and, the previously named, Michael Cuddyer on the offensive side as well as the losses of Zack Wheeler, Dillon Gee and Stephen Matz on the rotation side of things this year.
The continued play of Murphy, Flores and Niese have been instrumental pieces to the puzzle this year. It has been important to the team to add depth in every phase of the roster, however, it’s the depth that they haven’t lost that has made a significant difference.
This season, even at this point, would be considerable altered had most of us had our way this past winter. Perhaps, then, we all should be thankful to the baseball gods for those prayers that went unanswered.
That’s a great read and analysis. As I’ve posted before (I can’t remember where) if you listen to fans in the stands soon you will be a fan in the stands. Thankfully, Sandy Alderson does what he feel needs to be done and not what the fans and the media think should be done.
The fans are not idiots, and I don’t buy the narrative that Sandy looms over us in all his infinite wisdom.
The fans, collectively, were saying that the bench was weak, that the Mets needed another real bat, that Flores was not a true shortstop — and that SA should not trade any of the elite young pitching already in the majors. We, the collective, knew that this team would not compete unless he acted to address those areas.
I’m glad he finally listened and did what was clearly necessary.
I agree on Niese.
As much as I would like to give Flores a chance for the future, his present is hardly irreplaceable.
Murphy has not had a good year. Give me a break. The twenty bouncer through the left side the other night? LOL. Now, if you want to bring up the ninth inning bomb off Cishek in Miami, then heck yea! But, Murphy hasn’t been good: no steals, not close to 40 doubles, numbers are normal for him but for a MLB player, not too good this year.
FWIW, I don’t think errors is a particularly valuable tool when comparing defensive ability.
The problem with Flores at SS wasn’t so much the errors — though they count too — but his inability to get to balls. He didn’t have the ability to make the great play that good shortstops sometimes make.
But you know, JP, I do think you overstate Flores’ defensive shortcomings somewhat; or perhaps I should say, the extent to which his shortcomings actually result in losses.
Obviously bad infield play will hurt a team’s groundball pitchers. I think Flores did at least some of the things one expects from a shortstop pretty well, to wit: he has a good enough arm for the position; he doesn’t have particularly bad hands; he nearly always has an idea of what should happen next when he manages to glove the ball, unlike certain Murphy’s we could mention. He is not terribly error-prone.
He does not have great range, to state the obvious. But how much is actually lost by losing two or three percent of ground balls that a good shortstop might have made?
Teams have lived, prospered even, will no more, or even less range from their shortstop. There are three old timers I can think of who had range no better than Flores, who had a habit of showing up in MVP voting’s. Those would be Lou Boudreau, Dick Groat, and Derek Jeter. The first two were slower than Flores (Brodreau, a Hall of Famer, was the slowest man in baseball in his time, and Groat was plenty slow as well), and Jeter was less quick/more unquick than Wilbur. I think those three guys had seven top-three MVP votings between them, including to first’s.
All three were champions, at least once each, because they hit, and their lack of range didn’t result in a net loss of value. Of course, Flores isn’t producing at the plate like those three.
I imagine Flores’ defensive play would be more costly to some other team that put more baserunners on. The Mets, though, lead their league in fewest baserunners per nine. To some extent the Mets stinginess with the Walks limit the damage Flores’ defense could cause.
I am glad Flores isn’t the regular shortstop; he’s better and more comfortable at second. But I thought he played the shortstop position to a draw; I felt for him, frankly, a kid trying to establish himself while manning a position everyone said he could not handle. If he had hit a little more the discussion would have taken a very different tone.
Although this is fascinating to read, it simply cannot measure the effect of what might have happened if trades were made.
All we need to do is look at the Jays right now, or hell, even the Mets. We see that moving players around has the potential to make a real difference. I love where we are at and happy that what is happening is looking good.
Good point, Chris. Also, just look at the Rockies, who have given up entirely. Which is only fair, because the day they traded Tulo, management sent the same message to the clubhouse. Reyes looks absolutely miserable.
Do you think with Niese it’s finally not having to go up against another teams 1 or 2 where those pitchers stifle an offense as opposed to facing another teams 4-5 where your offense has a better chance? Less pressure to be perfect has allowed him to relax and be a better pitcher. Let’s all remember he’s only a year older than Degrom but seems to have been here forever.
My only problem with Niese is that slight tear in his rotator cuff. He’s one tweak away from Santana/Webb/Wang land where his career could be over in an instant. This makes him untradeable. Thankfully we have pitching depth.
How many starts in a row does he have to make until he stops being an injury concern? We’re up to 35 now
37.63
That d’Arnaud caught today — day game after a night game — just about confirms my theory of Recker as personal caddy to Colon. TC couldn’t start Recker two games in a row, even though in a normal world Travis earned the day off today before the Bucs series.
I think management knows that Colon is at a crossroads right now. They need him to function as an acceptable #5 — and soon, #6 — pitcher. They must be wary of the clubhouse implications of sending him packing at this point. I don’t think it would sit well with the players. He’s going to get every opportunity to turn it around, even if it involves Anthony Recker.
That’s my theory anyway.
Frank, your article appears to be revisionist history.
“trade Daniel Murphy, citing that he is such a bad fielder that he costs the team.” is not the reason that fans wanted Murphy traded. They wanted him traded because he was in a walk year, getting paid $ 8M and fans were hoping to flip him for another offensive piece (possibly in a SS package) They had Flores and Hererra in the wings. No other team valued Murphy that much.
In Flores “He has only become better as the season has gone on.” is an erroneous statement. His .596 OPS in June without power pretty much cost him the starting shortstop job.
Jon Niese was the bait last winter in order to obtain an upgrade at shortstop (so that Flores could move to 2B and get something of value for Murphy.) No team took the bait, so much so that Alderson almost almost ended up trading Wheeler.
It wasn’t that Alderson was smart in holding these players, it was more that nobody wanted them. Alderson did pass on May 27th in a Gee for Uribe deal though.
I like all three players, Niese, Murphy and Flores and they all have been an important part of the resurgence, but not in the way it was painted in your article. I guess I have a difference of opinion.
Alderson eventually landed Uribe and got Johnson, Cespedes and Clippard. That was what gelled this team into a unit. Prior to June 24th, Alderson was an indecisive GM who had watched a good start to the season disappear. After June 24th, he became a decisive GM, making shrewd moves with his minor league system and bringing in the necessary reinforcements. Those moves may earn him GM of the year if they win the division, and he would deserve it.
I like your comment, Metsense, and also agree that Alderson deserves plenty of credit for making those deadline moves.
Not trading for a shortstop was the best non-move for Alderson. Unless he is going to acquire Addison Russel for next to nothing, it was great for him to stand pat (at that position).
Russell*
One of the best move he made was to bring Kirk back. If people really examined the turn around of the team it started with his 3 home run night and continued with his 4 for 4 game. Strike outs went down and if some of his solidly hit balls found holes his average and RBI would have been greater. Tired of the knock on Kirk from some people that never played the game but consider themselves experts.
While I see your points about each player’s value, and I agree mostly, had Alderson not made the moves he did, those three players would not have been the driving force behind a major playoff push most likely.