The New York Mets continued another week in first place, amazingly enough. The starting pitching has been good, the bullpen has been shaky and the offense has been streaky at best. With all of this inconsistency, it’s a wonder the team is still holding on to their spot atop the NL East.
They have been able to do so due to a timely losing streak from the Washington Nationals. The Nationals have lost recently against the NL West while the Mets were being swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates over last weekend. Since then, both teams have rebounded and remain on parallel streaks.
One thing the past week has shown the Mets is that they need to learn how to play in close games against good teams rather than relying on other teams to beat their competition. Times like this give players experience that can make or break their careers. It’s also in times like this where a player with such experience is beneficial.
Enter David Wright. He is the only player still on this roster from the last time the Mets made the playoffs. His experience is crucial this time of year. He is slated to return to the lineup next week against the Philadelphia Phillies after a long recovery from a hamstring pull and, eventually, a diagnosis of spinal stenosis.
While his playoff experience is a wonderful attribute to a roster that has little of it, with the few veteran exceptions of Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, Michael Cuddyer, Juan Uribe, Tyler Clippard and Kelly Johnson, it would be unfair to Wright and to ourselves to think that he will return to anything close to the All-Star we’ve known in his career.
There are a few important reasons to remember why his return may not be as successful as we all hope: his diagnosis, the change in his swing and his Citi Field stats.
First, in order to understand how the diagnosis of spinal stenosis will affect David Wright, we have to understand what it is. It’s a degenerative condition of the spinal cord, directly impacting the discs, in which various locations of the spine can experience a narrowing. This narrowing indirectly causes pressure on the nerves by compressing the spinal cord and the discs.
This compression and pressure causes intense pain and sudden loss of mobility. It’s a condition caused by arthritis and/or extreme wear and tear on the body over a number of years. There is no cure for this condition, only continued treatment.
As the symptoms get worse, so the treatments get more drastic. In other words, David Wright is not going to ever completely heal from this. As a result, it’s most likely that he will never regain his best form again. Could this be the main cause of the rash of minor, nagging injuries that he’s endured the past few seasons that have plagued him?
It’s possible. As the body deals with one injury, it over-compensates by using its other parts and those other parts begin to get injured or stressed as well. The best case scenario for Wright with this diagnosis is a return to play in a limited role or full-time role and try to get as much production as he can on his good days and rest on his bad days.
The worst case scenario is, unfortunately, that he can’t adjust to the speed of the game at the MLB level and pushes himself beyond his physical limits, thereby rendering himself immobile. As fans, we ought to be hoping for is something in between these extremes. That way he’s still an effective part of this team and his iconic image can remain untarnished.
Secondly, as a result of this recovery, Wright has had to adapt by making slight changes to his game to limit the chance for painful flareups. One of these, seemingly minor adaptations, is to his swing. While he hasn’t shown pain with his new stroke, he also hasn’t show power. His contact has been clean, but line-drive capability at best.
As this is being written currently. Wright is 4-15 with four singles, two runs scored and no RBI. He also has four strikeouts in those 15 at bats in his Class A Port St Lucie rehab stint. That’s 4-15 with four singles. In Class A ball. In addition, he has three errors in the field.
If he’s struggling to adapt with the new swing and his health at the lowest level, how much more so will he struggle the first few games against MLB pitching? Sure, it may be the Phillies, who he has great career numbers against (.310 AVG, 10 HR 43 RBI last three seasons vs Philadelphia), but it’s still an MLB team.
The defensive adjustment is not the biggest concern as the speed of his movements in the field between the two levels is not too much different, though an unbalanced or ill-advised throw may be all it takes to land him on the DL with spasms.
It’s his adjustment offensively that is in real question. If he struggles the first few games, he will press to try harder. It’s his nature and one of the characteristics that has endeared him to the fans.
In this case, however, that would be the worst thing he can do. The harder he works, the higher the likelihood of a flareup. Should he be able to do well enough at the highest level to contribute, there is a a good chance that contribution would be as a gap hitter, not as a true power threat we all expect him to be.
Finally, if all of that wasn’t enough, there is the largest pachyderm in the room that we all forget to talk about. David Wright has had a well-documented struggle in the Mets home of Citi Field. In 1,455 at bats in the new ballpark, Wright has a .283 AVG, 46 HR and 202 RBI. Compare that to the 70 HR, 247 RBI and a .318 AVG in 1,280 at bats at Shea Stadium.
In other words, fewer at bats, more home runs, more RBI and an AVG that’s 35 points higher in the old place. This is especially important as the team plays 18 games down the final stretch in their friendly confines. He has clearly not been able to adjust his potential to the new stadium, since 2009.
With half of the remaining games in an important pennant race being held there, it’s safe to say that he’s not going to adjust to the stadium now. With this said, his new swing may help his AVG as it will produce more line drives, but it most definitely will not help his power.
In closing, we should embrace his return with tempered enthusiasm. The Mets, themselves, have said that they are planning to only utilize him in a limited capacity until his back proves to be 100%, which may not be until next season. As pointed out earlier, 100% may never be a realistic goal again due to his diagnosis. It’s due to these factors that his return may be either short-lived or short in expectations.
With this in mind, let’s hope for the best but brace for the worst while being prepared for something relatively in between. It may not be what we want from the one Mets player who has been the face of this franchise and MLB for so long, but there comes a time when the game marches on by and our favorites fade into the history of it.
While that’s hopefully not the case for David Wright this season, it’s certainly a sign that the sun may very well be setting on a solid Mets career. Let’s expect the team around him to be better for his presence, not necessarily for his performance. Then, they can dedicate one last hoorah for him, struggles or not.
With that expectation, it will be easier to cheer for him and this team that we all love.
You lower your expectations, I hope he comes back and rakes.
I think we all hope he does. Given the reasons I stated, however, I doubt it. I really hope I’m wrong.
Same here, except I’m just not going to be disappointed if he doesn’t rake.
I agree about the injury stuff. It’s a condition that is never going to go away. I don’t think anyone knows how things will go for hi from here on out. It’s fair to temper expectations.
I disagree about all the stadium stuff. That’s all pretty irrelevant at this stage and not really true. Wright has adapted to Citi just fine. Just b/c he didn’t hit as great there as he did in Shea, doesn’t mean he hasn’t adapted Citi is (or at least was…they’ve made a few changes) a tougher park to hit in than Shea…so his Citi numbers not being quite as good doesnt mean he’s doing something wrong. His numbers at Shea were ridiculous. Offense is all down throughout baseball from where it was back in the Shea years – so even if the Mets weren’t playing in a park like Citi the past few years, the numbers might have been down from what they were 7-8 years ago. Wright was one of the best players in the game playing half his games in Citi in 2012 and 2013. His numbers at Citi have generally been very good most years compared to what others do there
The health issue changes his swing. His swing changes the type of hitter he will be. The park adds to that difficulty, fences brought in or not.
He’s done just fine in the park though. A number of great years there. So I don’t really think that part of things is much of an issue
It’s a brutal park on RH power hitters.
And I don’t see his power returning
Ive been saying this for days in chatter. His return is not a time machine to 2006. He hasnt faced sustained major league pitching in nearly a year. Keeping him caged at A+ is the equivalent of sticking our heads in the sand. Worse yet, hes making throwing errors. As it stands, Uribe is the best third basement we have. Id bring Wright on slowly and hope he can catch back up to full speed baseball. My expectations are so low, I have exactly zero. I neither expect him to hit or field well.
Uribe is hitting about .160 as a Met. His defense has been solid but his bat atrocious. Wright doesn’t need to do a whole lot to be better than Uribe
Wright is doing ok in A+. What on earth makes you think hes gonna be better than .160 not having seen majjor league pitching in ages? Hitting is timing, and he hasnt had nearly the kind of PAs to get back to real pitching. Look, I hope hes awesome, but I dont expect he will be.
While what he is capable of doing is unknown at this point…hitting .160 is a pretty low bar. I have no reason to assume he’s completely incapable of being better than that.
This injury/condition is a significant problem and nobody knows how he’ll be able to play. But just in terms of the layoff aspect of things he played great when he first came off the back issue in 2011 after missing 2+ months and only having about 25 PA in rehab, played well when he got back from the hamstring issue in 2013 when he missed almost 2 months and didnt even get a chance to get into any rehab games. And he got off to a crazy good start in 2012 when he barely played any ST due to injuries. This situation is a bit different than those prior situations, but he has shown the ability to play well after long layoffs in the past
You are dialing back the hands of time to a different David Wright when you appeal to 2011 and 2012…thats not the guy of the last couple years. Furthermore, he’s missed almost a whole year, with an injury that will limit his swing, and hes approaching 33 yo, so he’s in his decline years.
Look, I think the world of Wright. Peeling back the layers of this web page, I have many times applauded SA for making him a lifetime Met. I actually met him at the winter meetings right after he announced his contract extension. Im a David Wright guy.
But I think there needs to be some sanity in assessing his return exactly like the article demonstrates. He’s not coming back as Captain America. Ultimately, we have almost no indication how well he will perform. Him just returning is a positive, but lets not imagine he’s going back to the future and its 2011.
I didn’t say he’d be as good as he was in 2011, 2012, or 2013. I was simply using those situations as a reference for how it’s not completely impossible to miss a bunch of time, see very limited rehab action and come back and play not terribly. I acknowledged this situation wasn’t exactly the same given it’s a longer period of time and not an “injury” that will heal. But he has shown himself capable of being able to play well off a long layoff so just from that standpoint missing time and rehabbing just in A level games…it isn’t necessarily a complete deal breaker on being a decent major league player
I never said he’d come back and be the .900 OPS David Wright. I was simply saying I don’t think it’s impossible for him to do better than the .160 average Uribe has provided thus far. It’s a pretty low bar. There is a lot of room between what Uribe has done and what Wright did back in his prime. As I said, I have no idea what Wright is going to be able to do…he may play well, he may struggle, he may get hurt again after 3 games. I just don’t think it’s completely lacking in “sanity” or any “reason on earth” to think that he can come back and hit better than .160. If there was no way he could hit better than .160, he probably wouldn’t bother to come back.
You wouldn’t believe how many fans are treating this like the second coming. It just amazes me how unrealistic we can be as a fanbase.
I understand what you are saying, but I think the whole “second coming ” is a bit harsh. It has been a roller coaster of emotions for everyone involved and to see hI’m back in action battling is very important to the team.
There have been other “second comings” that have been a lot more irritating, imho
I Completely understand the hard work going into this rehab. I’m not saying it’s not a good thing. I’m pulling for him. Im saying that fans overall have put too much hope in this one addition this season and I fully believe he will struggle or be a good part-time player at best. Does he add to the chemistry? Absolutely! Does his presence help? Yes! I mentioned that in the article. I also mentioned that even the team isn’t expecting as much as the fans are. All I’m asking for is a temper enthusiasm.
Stats don’t measure intangibles. Cespedes hasn’t knocked the cover off the ball since coming to the Mets but there was a palpable spark in the clubhouse upon his arrival. Hopefully, Wright’s return triggers another win streak.
I mentioned that his addition would be beneficial. I Just don’t think it’s in the way that most fans are hoping.
Worse case scenario……Wright is only going to be a part time singles hitting player. If true, then the (current)lineup should have Murphy and Flores playing 3B/2B…they are the hottest hitters at the moment. Also, no more Granderson against lefties.
Frank,
I think your piece is pretty well thought out. A very sober look at David Wright and
the reasonable expectations for his contributions. Good work!
Frankly,my expectations couldn’t be lower.
Today I’m more aggrieved by the Harvey day off scenario and how that thought process weakens the bullpen for 6-7 games while the team is fighting for its postseason life.
That’s a lot of negative to put on a team just to save 7 innings off Matt Harvey’s arm. The guy is going to walk in three years.