Mets fans’ apprehension is informed by the past

The Mets lost last night in excruciating fashion. We should be used to that by now, and the team did have a four-and-a-half game cushion going into it, but a loss like that still stings. The fact that the Washington Nationals were able to shave a game off that lead didn’t help. The collective “uh-oh,” heard from Far Rockaway to Canarsie, was as familiar as it was loud. On top of that, the team and its fans now have an off-day to digest exactly how close a two-game sweep of Baltimore was, how it could have taken another day off the schedule and lowered their magic number to 39. We can all reflect on how bad the bullpen has looked for the past five games. We can all debate whether or not getting swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates last weekend portends September doom, despite not losing any ground in the standings. The Nationals have now won two straight against the hapless Colorado Rockies and will lose their “game-in-hand” status as they conclude that series tonight. Much has been made about the lack of strength of the Mets’ remaining schedule, but the fact remains that the Nats’ docket doesn’t look a whole lot better. All those who predicted that the NL East race would be a dogfight down to the very last games would appear to be correct.

Yes, we’re starting to hear some Washingtonian footsteps. However, the number-crunchers seem to be coming down on our side. This morning, even after last night’s angst, Fangraphs’ playoff odds doohickey has the Mets chances of winning the division at 62.1% and of making the playoffs in any capacity at 63.5% Washington, by contrast, clocks in at 37.9% chance to win the division and 39.9% to reach the playoffs otherwise. And a hard look at the two teams’ records shows that if the Mets play a pedestrian .500 in final 42 games, that will give them 85 wins and force the Nats to go 25-18 to match them. So for as much as our nerves attack us during these heady pennant race days, we can look to these numbers and breathe a little bit easier.

I know, I know…

A safe wager can be made that 99.9% of us reading and writing here are older than ten years old, so we’ll all remember what it was like in 2007. There, I said it – I invoked the season that dare not speak its name. Down the stretch that year, it looked like the Mets had everything locked up tighter than a drum. We know the phrase all too well: “seven up with seventeen to play.” On September 12, the Mets beat the Atlanta Braves, their fifth win in six games. We fans, having survived a campaign where something just…wasn’t quite right… suddenly found ourselves using $100 bills to light cigars – metaphorically, of course. The Mets were going to waltz into the playoffs and get revenge on those dirty birds from St. Louis. This really would be our year. As we all know, after September 12, the Mets stumbled through a 5-12 skein while the Philadelphia Phillies did the waltzing, to the tune of 13-4, stealing the division and shutting the Mets out of the playoffs – there was only one Wild Card berth back then – altogether.

While all this was going on, brave noises kept emanating from Queens. “We’ll be OK,” was the overriding refrain. Carlos Delgado famously told New York Magazine, “We’re so good, sometimes we get bored.” Meanwhile, the Rome that was the NL East title burned to the ground. The thing is, we’ve been hearing similar things this year, but they’ve been coming from our nation’s Capital. “I don’t give a crap what the Mets…are doing,” groused Bryce Harper on the heels of being swept at Citi Field. “This division is ours to lose,” grumbled Jayson Werth a week later. All this while the Nats were falling below .500 and nationwide media began to notice. The team that the MSM had anointed as the prohibitive favorite to represent the NL in the 2015 World Series woke up on Monday morning 58-59.

The thing to remember is that this is baseball, y’know? Nothing’s ever easy. There are no foregone conclusions. The games are played on the field, not on paper. We need to look at Fangraphs’ projections with the same kind of skepticism we held for the crowning of an NL champion in March. So yes, this division may very well be a dogfight to the bitter end: three games vs. Washington at Citi Field the first week of October. But having gone through the wringer a couple of times before, Met fans know enough not to take anything for granted.

Keep those hundreds in your pockets, everybody.

Follow me on Twitter @CharlieHangley.