In their last 50 games, the Mets are 31-19, for a .620 winning percentage. If they were to play at that pace over an entire season, at the end of the year they’d have 100 wins. Their record is more than supported by their run totals, as they’ve scored 218 and allowed just 160 in this span. Those totals make their Pythagorean Record 33-17.
Meanwhile, the Nationals’ record over the past 50 games sits at 22-28. Their run results show they should be closer to .500, as they’ve only been outscored by four runs in this span. Still, we’ve got the Mets with a five-game lead, playing at a 100-win pace for 50 games versus a team that has been playing at essentially a break-even pace for nearly one-third of the year.
Previously, the Mets seemed to have a fatal flaw with a terrible road record. But even that’s turning around now. In their last 23 road games, the Mets are 14-9. That’s a remarkable comeback given that they were 11-26 away from Citi Field earlier in the season.
The Mets have six games remaining with the Nationals, including the last three of the year in Citi Field. The Mets’ goal should be to have the division clinched before that series so they can rest people for the playoffs and establish their pitching rotation for the NLDS.
No doubt some of you are horrified reading that last graph, thinking it’s a jinx to talk about the playoffs and so easily dismissing that last series of the year. But as we stand here with a week left to go in August, the Mets’ concern should be with the Dodgers and the National League West, not the Nationals.
A five-game losing streak by the Dodgers, during which time the Mets went 4-1, has left the two teams with identical 67-56 records. With the Cardinals seemingly having best record in the National League all sewn up, it appears that the NL East and NL West winners will square off in the Division Series. And the Dodgers’ recent poor play has put the Giants back in the thick of the division race, too.
The Dodgers hold a one-game lead on the Giants. They are getting ready for a three-game set in Cincinnati and after that, they do not have to travel further east than Colorado the rest of the way. Their final 14 games of the year are against division foes, including four on the road against the Giants.
Meanwhile, San Francisco does not have any extended travel left on its schedule, either. But down the stretch in September, the Giants will travel across the bay to play three games against Oakland. After that they return home for the final seven games of the season, four against the Dodgers and three against the Rockies.
The team with the better record will have home field advantage in the division series. If the two teams are tied, it goes to head-to-head record. The Mets hold the tiebreaker over the Dodgers, as they took the season series, 4-3. The Giants and Mets split their six games so it would move to the next tiebreaker, division record.
The Mets should end up with a better division record. Currently, they are 30-17 versus their division mates, while the Giants are 27-23 against the NL West. The Mets’ recent strong play on the road doesn’t make home field advantage as crucial as it was eight weeks ago but if push comes to shove, everyone would prefer a potential final game to be played in Citi Field.
So, would you rather face Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke or Madison Bumgarner and the rookie who no-hit the club? Would you rather square off against Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson and the ghost of Jimmy Rollins or the team that’s won three of the past six World Series? It’s really pick your poison. The only good news is that the Cubs and Pirates square off against one another before the winner facing the Cardinals. So the Mets will not have to face a team that went undefeated against them until the NLCS (if at all.)
The Mets are streaking, the Nationals are spinning their wheels and the NL West champion is looming. Hopefully New York will have home field advantage. If the Mets want to maximize their chances of both winning the division and gaining the right to be at home in a series-deciding game, they should stop giving starts every fifth day to a guy with an ERA heading towards 6.00 in his last 18 starts.
We’re trying to win games here.
Nice piece, but that was a long, winding road to say “cut Colon”.
+1
+2
still love reading joura’s post tho.
Thank you for the kind words.
However, anyone who read this and thought it was all about getting rid of Colon needs to work on their reading comprehension
I kid out of love.
Strange happenings in the NL. The Mets are now tied for 4th best record with the Dodgers who are, similarly to the Nationals falling short of expectations. The Diamonbacks are as close to first place as the Nationals are, and even San Diego at 2 games under .500 is only 6.5 games back. The Dodgers have almost identical home road splits to the Mets which is kind of crazy when you think about it. The big difference is in the trend – Mets are trending up with a cake schedule the rest of the way, while the Blue are trending towards falling apart. Meanwhile, in the Central, the Pirates are now only 3.5 back of the Cards. But they can’t beat the Cubs, 3 behind them. Truth be told, The Pirates are the one team I don’t want to face in the playoffs. The Mets may be the first division winner to clinch in the NL. Can you believe that?
Long way to go. As a fan, I’m just not there yet.
Either the Dodgers or the Giants would be a tough assignment for the Mets, but given the choice I would prefer playing the Dodgers. I believe the Giants lineup stacks up favorably with the Dodgers, with Belt and Brandon Crawford emerging at stars; and there is the item of Clayton Kershaw’s postseason record to consider.
As a team, the Dodgers have spent and spent to field the most talented team in baseball, only to come up small year after year. In the past 20 seasons the Dodgers have played 33 postseason games, which admittedly in itself is some measure of success; their record over that span: 6-27.
It’s hard for me to wrap my head around Brandon Crawford being a star but you’re right.
I feel better about TC matching wits with Don Mattingly than with Bruce Bochy.
To think, not only are we talking about the Mets taking the NL East, we’re discussing the potential for home field advantage in the NLDS. Craziness.
Not sure which poison I would prefer. The Dodgers one-two of Kershaw/Greinke is formidable (past post-season performance notwithstanding), but the Giants just go on these ridiculous post-season runs that don’t make any sense.
One thing that occurred to me: are the Western Division teams really that good offensively, when one considers that they play Arizona and Colorado 18 times a year each?
No big statistical onslaught to follow here, but I did look up the Dodgers’ numbers against those two teams, and I can report that in 25 games so far against those two opponents the Dodgers have hit 36 home runs and 56 doubles.
I think overall that playing 19 games at Coors would be evened out by having to play 19 games a piece at spacious AT&T and Petco Park.
“the Mets’ concern should be with the Dodgers and the National League West, not the Nationals.”
No! Those who do not study history are condemned to relive it. The major concern should be the Nats. It’s not over ’til it’s over.
+1
But I’ll take the Dodgers, all day every day.
Sorry but I’m a bit confused. The Pirate-Cub winner facing the Dodgers? I thought you have the Met’s playing the Dodgers? Didn’t the Giants send Heston back to AAA? I’ll take the Dodgers every time over the Giants. Can you imagine TC playing his match ups with Bochy?
Yes, you are definitely confused.
Where did you get the Wild Card winner facing the Dodgers?
Edit — I see where the confusion came from and I corrected it to read Cardinals.
Best record gets the wild card game winner. As it stands, that looks like StL v either Chicago or Pitt. The Mets would get the winner of the NL West. Im just guessing that the Mets will not pass the Cards at this point.
With the Dodgers in urgent care, I get the feeling the Giants will win the West.
If our record against the east keeps piling up, we may have the better record for that series.
The Dodgers in the playoffs could be dangerous. I always think back to that DBacks team that won behind Unit and Kechup Sock. Two great pitchers is sometimes all it takes. That being said, I am not ready to talk about the playoffs when we have 6 remaining games against the Nats.
Totally agree, Matt.
Premature.