“Well, the New York Mets or Washington Nationals are going to win the NL East and neither is a very good team. They’re not as good as the Cardinals, Pirates or Cubs; they’re probably on par with the Arizona Diamondbacks and maybe not even as good as the Milwaukee Brewers, who have a .426 winning percentage in baseball’s best division. (The NL Central currently has the fourth-best winning percentage outside the division of any division since 2006.)
Yes, geography can be just as important as constructing the team on the field. That’s baseball in 2015.”
Source: David Schoenfield, ESPN.com
Yes, the NL East is terrible, we agree on that. But there are a couple of things that, in my opinion, Schoenfield is just plain wrong.
Let’s start off with a fact, not an opinion. Geography has played a role in determining who makes the playoffs for a lot longer than 2015. Let’s go back to 1984, when the Mets won 90 games and didn’t make the playoffs because they played in the NL East. That year they were 44-28 against the NL West. That’s a .611 winning percentage or 99 wins over an entire season. The Padres won the West that year with 92 wins. They were just 37-35 against the NL East. That’s a .514 winning percentage and 83 wins over a full season.
Here’s an opinion: The Nationals are not going to win the NL East.
Here’s an opinion backed by facts: The Mets’ record is buttressed by having played in the NL East but the Mets’ lineup in the last week of August bears no resemblance to the lineup in May when the Cubs, Pirates and Cardinals went a combined 9-2 against the Mets. On May 24, when the Mets lost to the Pirates, 9-1, the lineup featured only two players with an OPS above .700, led by Curtis Granderson and his .716 mark. Meanwhile, last night’s lineup featured these OPS marks:
.924 – Yoenis Cespedes
.890 – David Wright
.862 – Travis d’Arnaud
Granderson had the day off last night and he now has an .807 OPS. And Lucas Duda will be back for the playoffs and he has an .818 OPS mark. It’s a lot different from the days when the Mets were batting guys fourth and fifth who were batting under .180, which, yes, actually happened.
In their last 51 games, the Mets are 32-19. Even if you take out their games against NL East foes, they stand with a 24-17 mark, a .585 winning percentage and a 95-win pace over an entire season.
Are they the class of the NL? No, no they are not. But if you judge their worthiness for the playoffs based on their record when Dillon Gee was starting, Buddy Carlyle and Bobby Parnell were relieving and Eric Campbell, Darrell Ceciliani and Daniel Muno were in the lineup – you’re going to have a very warped idea of what the team is actually now like.
If the Mets can get their pitching settled and keep their hitting healthy they can be a major impact team in the playoffs.
“Yes, geography can be just as important as constructing the team on the field. That’s baseball in 2015.”
2006 Cardinals
Really, he should just drop the “in 2015” and he’d have himself a cogent thought.
21-12 vs NL West also. We couldn’t beat the Pirates or Cubs this year, but went what, 3-3 or 3-4 vs Cardinals?
Eff him
Just the typical ESPN bomb throwing to get attention.
Dead on Brian.
Lots of Met haters and National’s apologists (…if I hear they have “a good run in them” one more time Im gonna scream) out there right now. Remember every single talking head made it clear that the Nats were the class of the NL and even the MLB…sure fire lock for the post season. And the Marlins were the second best team…then the Mets…
yadda yadda yadda
It hurts to be that wrong. Lots of people are gonna have to eat crow. So be it. I might add, me too. Were a new team relative to May 1, but its hard not to recognize this team is the real deal.
Im in.
Believe in Miracles
Met Power!
Amazin’
Bye Bye Birdies
Whatever…it takes.
3-4 knock out starters and a competent offense with a return to form from the back end of the bullpen.”” .
Forget the Name on the front of the Laundry!….. anyone discounting that basic description knows Zippo about baseball!!!
Very often the process of *getting to the playoffs* is a much different mechanism than *winning in the playoffs* and winning the world series. Getting in most typically involves consistent all around play over a long season. THe Mets are currently constructed to compete for a spot, and I hope they make it. Once in the playoffs- success is very often determined by transcendent performances by individuals over a short bursts of time – Reggie Jackson, Papi, Kung-Pao-Panda ;-), and even more often by supernatural pitching performances like we saw by Baumgartner. The defense for the Mets is So-so. The bullpen- worrisome. But they can field a more than representative lineup and if the starting pitching rises to the task- if they perform as they have, and the bullpen holds, they can win in the playoffs. The Mets can win a World Series as currently constructed. Favorites/Shamavorites. Once you’re in- anything can happen. Now- they have to play in. This is playoff baseball, for all intents and purposes. Enjoy
Meanwhile from a commenter on MMO:
Great to hear from Tim Kurkjian: “The Nationals better win 9 out of every 10 games if they’re going to catch the Mets”
Given the records, divisions and head-to-head games, it’s hard to argue Mets are as good as the Pirates or Cubs. But the Dbacks and Brewers? Seriously?
from the article:
“maybe not even as good as the Milwaukee Brewers, who have a .426 winning percentage in baseball’s best division.”
Lol…
So that means he thinks the Nats are probably not even as good as the Rockies?
+1
Just another “expert” who has never spent one second in professional baseball in any sort of capacity talking out of his ass. In 1973 my only concern was not that the Mets were a good team, but that they were going to win Game Seven of the World Series. These no-talent fools know nothing so they write nothing.
From my perspective, most of the broadcasters are reporting on the Mets accurately and with enthusiasm. The story is a fantastic one, regardless of one’s affinity to the Mets. In fact, I would guess that many fans of other teams are very tired of the Flores narrative by now. In other words, this is hardly a “Mets vs the world” scenario. Yes, they were written off by most people, including many fans, as having a legit shot at the playoffs. This was true until the August streak. Now they are in the process of another Mets miracle. I dont think many people predicted this. Yes, there was a lot of hope but I don’t think many fans were very confident in the playoff chances before Aug.
Just my two cents.
The issue I, and many others, have with this piece is that it still looks at the Mets as the team from May/June and not the one that currently takes the field. If the Mets had TDA, Wright and Cespedes in their lineup then, the record for May/June would be completely different. It’s one thing for a fan of a team besides the Mets to make this mistake. It’s another matter completely for a national writer to do the same. Schoenfield isn’t a talking head/stuffed shirt who doesn’t know better.
Thanks for setting the record straight, Brian! Excellent piece that puts ESPN in general in its place. Geez, I miss the late 90s when that channel was entertaining and informative. Haven’t watched it in years.
Who cares what Shoenfield or anyone says- Especially regarding predictions?It’s of no consequence. The game is played on the field, not in the pressbox, in blogs, or “expert interviews”. The game takes 3 hours- and every bit of it is determined in those three hours on the field. No amount of bloviating changes that. I’m just watching the games and enjoying. I am interested in analysis and coverage of how teams are playing- But predictions? zzzz…..