Earlier today, we had a comment left on the site suggesting that if the Mets don’t re-sign Yoenis Cespedes, that they turn to Justin Upton as an offensive replacement. While Cespedes is likely helping his chances to earn a big contract with his play since arriving in New York, it’s hard to make that same case for Upton in his new digs. Has Cespedes surpassed Upton as the most desirable free agent outfielder this upcoming offseason?
Let’s start with Upton. Prior to 2014, he was dealt somewhat unexpectedly for the second time in his career, going from the Atlanta Braves to the San Diego Padres. The surprise wasn’t so much that he was traded, but that he was traded a month after the Braves ditched Jason Heyward. Both outfielders were free agents following the 2015 season and the conventional wisdom was that the Braves wouldn’t be able to sign both of them. Once they traded Heyward, most assumed they would be extending Upton. Instead, the Heyward deal was just the start of a salary-slashing offseason for Atlanta, one which has left it with a 54-79 record and the possibility of a last-place finish in the NL East.
Upton made his MLB debut as a teenager and after he put up an .899 OPS at age 21, it seemed the sky was the limit. That season he hit 26 HR and had 20 SB in a season where he played just 138 games. After a down season in 2010, Upton had perhaps his best year in the majors at age 23 in 2011. He compiled a .385 wOBA and a 141 wRC+ en route to posting a 6.3 fWAR. Upton finished fourth in the MVP voting and was clearly established as one of the top young players in the game.
But he hasn’t matched that age 23 season since. After a disappointing year in 2012, he was sent to Atlanta. He improved year over year in both 2013 and 2014, giving hope that he would return to earlier heights. Instead, Upton has taken a slight step backwards here in 2015. Thought to be the superstar on an up-and-coming team in the Padres, instead he’s been a power hitter (24 HR) and nothing more on a squad fighting to reach .500 at 64-69.
Meanwhile, Cespedes joined the Mets at the trading deadline as a sort of consolation prize. A deal for their first target, Carlos Gomez, fell apart and the Mets seemed to overpay for the leftovers. The Mets wanted a center fielder and while Cespedes had played the position previously, he seemed to fit better in a corner. Plus there was the worry that maybe he wasn’t the best guy in the clubhouse, since this marked his third trade in a year.
But Cespedes looked immediately at home in center and has been better than advertised with a bat in his hand. In his brief time in New York, he has a .950 OPS, with 10 HR in 129 ABs. He’s also hit two triples and swiped four bags in this stretch. And few will forget his great throw to third base to nail a runner in the Pirates series. Viewed by some as nothing more than a hitter, Cespedes is cementing a reputation as a five-tool player.
So, who do you prefer – Cespedes or Upton?
The two players are virtually identical in wRC+, with Upton holding a lifetime 121-120 edge. But Upton was playing in the majors at an earlier age, bringing down his totals. Upton holds a .358 to .343 edge in wOBA. Let’s call it a slight edge for Upton.
In the field, Cespedes was a better corner outfielder than Upton, an edge that only increases if Cespedes holds down center for a club. Let’s call that a solid edge for Cespedes.
Upton holds an 18-7 lead in SB this year and holds a 3.8 to 3.3 lead in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric. Again, let’s give a slight edge here to Upton.
Perhaps the biggest edge for Upton comes in being nearly two years younger. He was born in August of 1987 while Cespedes’ birth was in October of 1985.
Cespedes has been invigorated since his trade to New York. The guy he’s been in his last 30 games has been outstanding. But we just can’t ignore the other 500-plus games of his career, where he hasn’t been this productive. And what’s driving Cespedes’ surge? Has it been the move to the Big Apple and a playoff race? Or has it been 14 games against the Rockies and Phillies?
In the 14 games against those cellar-dwelling teams, Cespedes is batting .318 with an .818 SLG, thanks to two doubles, two triples and nine homers. In his other 16 games with the Mets, he’s batting .270 with a .381 SLG.
All the games count and we can’t just ignore what he’s done against two of the other 14 teams in the league. But we shouldn’t view him as a .950 OPS guy moving forward, either. He’s a good player in the middle of a hot streak and the Mets are benefitting tremendously from his recent production.
But it’s not a slam dunk that he’s moved past Upton as the premier free agent outfielder. Some clubs may prefer Cespedes’ ability to play CF while others may prefer Upton’s longer MLB track record and younger age. It will be interesting to see who commands more money this offseason.
I see no way Cespedes stay with the Mets. even if Sandy, Fred and Jeff offer a fair contract. Look at what GNats offered Desmond, it was more than fair, yet his or his agents greed turned it down. He won’t get that offer again next year, anywhere. If the Mets do make a fair offer to Cespedes his greedy agent will look at it like a starting point to where the biding will begin. Cespedes has been the Glue that has made the Mets line up successful. Upton’s not bad, but not as good as Cespedes, who strikes out much less.
They’ve given Cespedes a starring Role in a Pennant Chase…and a CF Job!!!!…. his price is going way up.
Worth considering: How much is your first-round draft pick worth to you?
Sign Cespedes, it won’t cost you a player (and money slot) in the draft.
BTW, Brian, you were absolutely right about the Braves this season.
Not sure what the criteria is for “premier”, but if we’re talking about pure dollars, i’d say it’s neither of the two and instead i’d go with the guy who mentioned earlier in the article, Jason Heyward. He just turned 26, and could probably contend for the first 11 year contract if he were to have a monster postseason.
As for Upton vs Cespedes, the fact that Upton is 2 years younger should easily push him ahead of Cespedes for the guy that will be more sought after.
Cespedes will be 30 next year. Woe be the club that signs him for 6 figures.
As you know, I’m a big Heyward fan.
But I think the fact that he’s a defensive star corner OF hurts him. He’s never matched his rookie season from an overall production mark and he doesn’t give you the long ball on a consistent basis. He’s getting a boost from his new home park this year, as his road numbers (.729 OPS) look very similar to last year’s numbers (.735 OPS).
He may end up with more money due to length of contract but I don’t think he’s getting Cano money and I expect both Cespedes and Upton to get more per year.
It’s closer than you (or I) think
Justin Upton and Cespedes both have around 120 OPS+ and wRC while Jason Heyward has a career 114 OPS+ and 117 wRC.
So statistically, he’s only about 3-5% worse with the bat.
Against Upton, his defensive prowess should easily make up that difference.
Against Cespedes, his 20 sb potential plus added defense makes up that difference.
And that’s all before you factor in ages. I believe he’ll be the youngest player of this stature to reach free agency since A-Rod. I think that some GM will bite and he’ll get 250+ million.
I’ll take the under.
Fantastic comparison! It seems you’re right that Upton still has the edge in overall production, age and speed. Cespedes would probably have to become a full-time CF to make up the difference.
Enough with this talk of Cespedes! Has anyone actually watched this team play this year? I mean all year?
The problem with the Mets has not been the absence of the long ball. There were at least a couple of dozen winnable games where a single at the right time would have won the game. The Mets need players with good speed that can hit for average. Cespedes and Murphy are 30 and probably at their peaks. They won’t be worth the money asked for.
And mostly they need to get rid of Kevin Long who has no clue to turn around the offense. The talent is there already.
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How about a trade for PUig and/or Castro, two,guys whose values are way down?
Seems to me the Mets need a guy who can play CF, since they’ve already got Conforto & Granderson in the corners. Cespedes can do that, then shift to RF in two years. Can Upton?
Correct that Heyward is a fine player. Love the glove. Seems like the Cards will retain him, though I think the $250 million number is insane.
A Met signing of Upton or Heyward would put Granderson in centerfield. No thanks. All three outfuelders are good players but Cespedes is the best choice for the Mets. All large free agent signings are risky and do not come with a guarantee. I would take this risk because the Mets would be replacing their weakest offensive player with a player that has been a difference maker. I would be dissappointed if the Mets don’t make him a competitive offer of 5/100 to start off negotiations.
Heyward is an awkward looking offensive player, but he’s pretty effective. I think of him as similar to Jayson Werth. He may not have spectacular offensive upside, but he also seems Bust Proof— he does many good things that show up when he’s not dominating with the bat. He may consider a 4-6 year deal and an opportunity to re-cash when he’s early 30’s