Lost among the team success, the individual exploits of Yoenis Cespedes and Travis d’Arnaud and the Scott Boras soap opera is the performance of rookie Michael Conforto. When he was called up many were fretting that the Mets were foolishly rushing him. But not only has he looked like he belongs in the majors, Conforto is swinging a great bat. Coming into Sunday he’s slashing .289/.367/.521 and he looks much better than advertised in the field, too.
The best rookie “year” by a prospect (min. 100 PA, age 23 or younger) in franchise history belongs to Gregg Jefferies, who in 1988 came up and delivered a 178 OPS+ in 118 trips to the plate. If the 2015 season ended last night, Conforto would rank second with a 144 OPS+. Currently, the second-best mark belongs to Darryl Strawberry, who won Rookie of the Year honors with a 134 OPS+ in 473 PA. Daniel Murphy had a 130 OPS+ in 151 PA in 2008. David Wright and John Milner are currently tied for fourth with 119 marks.
Murphy is an interesting comp, in that both he and Conforto came up in years where the Mets were battling for a playoff spot and both got the long side of platoons in left field.
There are big differences between the two, however. Murphy was converted to the outfield while that’s Conforto’s natural position. Also, Conforto has been considered one of the Mets’ top prospects from the moment he was drafted, while Murphy was a low-round pick who improved as he moved up the ladder. Murphy never had the prospect sheen that Conforto does. Perhaps most importantly, Murphy had a .382 BABIP while Conforto has a more-normal .318 mark.
Conforto is simply doing it all. He’s hitting for a strong AVG, he’s more than willing to take a walk and he’s hitting for power, too. His .231 ISO ranks third on the team, behind only the big seasons of the aforementioned Cespedes and d’Arnaud. And Conforto is providing this power without producing huge strikeout numbers. He currently sits with an 18.7 K%, a full two points below the Mets’ 20.7 team mark.
The rookie is improving his strikeout mark, too. In his last 26 games, Conforto has whiffed just 13 times in 91 PA, for a 14.3 K%.
In his second game in the majors, Conforto had a four-hit game. It seemed as if pitchers immediately changed their approach, looking to paint corners instead of challenging him with their fastball. As we saw earlier, Conforto had some trouble with called third strikes. Seven of his first 18 whiffs were called by the umpire. That’s a 38.9% called K rate, while 23.6% is the average in the majors. Since then, Conforto has been called out on strikes only twice in his last eight punchouts.
Conforto arrived earlier than expected and has done better than even his strongest proponents would have imagined. But there’s still the question of how he’ll do facing southpaws on a regular basis. He has just 12 PA and a .432 OPS against LHP in the majors. However, in 134 PA against lefties in the minors, Conforto posted a .272/.381/.421 mark this year. It’s not unreasonable to project him to hold his own against lefties once he becomes a full-time player.
The rapid ascension to the majors and the instant success of Conforto just reinforces how poor the decision to sign Michael Cuddyer to a two-year deal was. The Mets will be stuck paying Cuddyer $12.5 million next year to be a fourth outfielder and gave up their first-round pick this year to make it happen. Conforto was the initial first-round pick of Sandy Alderson’s to make the majors. If this is any indication of Alderson’s drafting prowess with top picks, the last thing we should be doing is giving those away.
Conforto has been better than advertised. We all knew about his bat, yet I was surprised by his fielding, as he takes decent routes to the ball, and gets it into the infield quickly.
It would be nice to see Conforto to play every game (even against left-handed pitchers) so that he can develop, but we will wait for next year to see that.
The best sign for this kid is the amazing ability to hit for serious power to the opposite field. This ability can produce 35+ home runs if doesn’t change his approach. Another player that has come up through the Mets system and produced. Dare I say it? The next David Wright?
That catch last night was incredible.
However keep in mind, the reason ergot such a great draft is because we sucked so bad. It calls into question why any manager would have wanted to bench the kids in the past couple years in favor of aging vets because “there were gamesto win”. Look at how bad teams get if great drafts in successive years are doing: Astros, Cubs, Twins and with Conforto to a lesser extent the Mets. It pays to be terrible. Guys like Conforto will not get to our round next year.
There’s a difference between having multiple top 5 picks compared to 10-13, like the Mets have had under Alderson. You called it a lesser extent and that’s underselling the difference.
Chris F….are you attempting to write in English? Your post makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
sometimes keyboard autocorrect and a spotty signal on a small phone make it hard to check.
Two things happened at about the time of the trade deadline; the trades for Clippard, Johnson, Uribe and Cespedes, and also the promotion of Conforto and the return of d’Arnaud. Whatever happens with the recently acquired Mets, the team has a solid offensive core in place for 2016 and beyond.
I do find myself wondering: if David Wight had not gotten hurt, if d’Arnaud hadn’t gotten hurt, would the Mets have been so aggressive with the midseason deals? With those two around the offensive picture would not have looked nearly so bleak; nor would the Won/Lost.
If not, it would have meant more pitching strength in minor league system today, but on the other and we might have missed this terrific ride.
Alderson has always claimed the ability to add payroll if needed and he finally did it this year. The question is if that’s because he finally saw the light of a playoff spot or if it was due to insurance money from Wright’s contract.
Anderson reinvested Wright’scinsrance money …. That’s why I get concerned about the payroll moving forward …. Just enjoying this ride right now …. Will worry about 2016 after the world series
My guess is Alderson didn’t have payroll flexibility, at least for a few years; but why give anything away a weakness to the people with whom you might find yourself negotiating?
And of course the Mets’ pitching talent level hit that critical mass, making the midseason trades make sense. How many game starts have been handed over to replacement-level pitchers this season? I count zero; no Dice-K’s, no Chris Schwindens. Makes a difference.
One thought I have about this season is that it has provided proof of the value of having (and spending!) reserve funds at the deadline.
Every deadline move by Alderson had surgical specificity. He went after exactly what the Mets needed at the time — and a time when the season provides a GM with that info.
You sit back, you watch, and it becomes clear what the weaknesses are. I don’t believe you can accurately predict that over the winter. So in a perfect world, I’d make sure that we had an additonal $10 million to add to payroll at the deadline.
Reserve funds of money and of talent to spend, agreed. Pitching talent seems to be especially fungible.
Sandy Alderson is Mark Whalberg on a lonely hill in Iraq. Don’t waste your bullets.
Conforto should be the starting left fielder next year and be a fixture for years to come.He should also replace Murphy in his position in the batting order and take on that responsibility. Conforto has been handled well in 2015 because of the other trade deadline aquisitions. He was eased in and not relied on. I hope that the Mets handle Hererra the came way. Cuddyer should still get plenty of at bats spelling Conforto, Granderson and Duda but he will be an expensive bench player. The qualifying offer should have eliminated Cuddyer from consideration last winter and a different avenue explored.
Cuddyer is an expensive luxury. At his age and given his injury history he shouldnt be playing OF regularly anyway. He can DH, pinch hit, spell Duda and occasionally play OF. That will be his role next year, especially if we miraculously sign Cespedes.
I’m very excited about Conforto and to see how he does next year playing every day and facing lefties regularly. Brian, you’re right that a lot of his hype got lost amid the trades and playoff push. Probably works to the player’s advantage.
Eat a portion of Cuddyer’s contact and move on.
Forget about the money, it’s spent already.
Cuddyer is good 4th outfielder, bat off the bench, veteran guy. Rearrange your expectations & enjoy what’s left of the ballplayer.
James at 12 million dollars? For a fourth outfielder? I didn’t have any expectations to begin with because I didn’t see the value in adding a past his prime injury prone veteran .Paying him 8 and 12 million for whatever games he’s able to suit up for is too high a risk reward. Especially when you’re forfeiting a first round draft pick. Can take part of the 8 million you save and apply it to signing Cespedes.
Mark Simon reporting exit speed of 117.2 MPH on Conforto’s HR yesterday. The fastest by any Met this year, sixth fastest all season in MLB. The sound was incredible. His batting practice hits were equally phenomenal.
I saw from the 4th inning on yesterday, so I missed this live. Hearing this, I’ll go out and search for the replay!
definitely. we were right at the Mets on deck circle (I can send you a couple pix if you like) and had a perfect look and listen of it. It was a Stanton like laser.