Yoenis Cespedes has spent all of four seasons in the MLB, and has already had a stellar career. According to Baseball-reference.com, over a 162-game average he has a batting line of .272/.320/.489 with 30 home runs, 35 doubles, 11 stolen bases, 106 RBI, and 96 runs scored. Those are All-Star numbers to be sure, and could even translate into MVP numbers this season. In his time with the New York Mets, those numbers have blossomed into a batting line of .308/.353/.680 with 16 home runs, 10 doubles, four stolen bases, 41 RBI, and 35 runs scored. He’s done all that in just 40 games. Adding to the illustrious hype, Cespedes and his agent recently renegotiated a deal to allow the Mets an extended re-signing period after 2015 is done, and it is easy to see why people are so jazzed about him returning in 2016.
But we are getting a bit hasty, aren’t we? Cespedes’ numbers as a Met are purely unsustainable, and it’s easy to see why when we extrapolate over a full season. The last time a player drove in more than a 150 runs and scored 140 more was Alex Rodriguez in 2007. And hitting a home run nearly once every two games isn’t going to happen over an entire season either. Unless Cespedes is at the pinnacle of becoming the best player in the entire game, he will likely have a healthy regression back toward his career numbers so far. Those are still ridiculously good numbers mind you, but are they worth the extremely large contract Cespedes is setting himself up for?
To be completely fair, Cespedes has been unbelievably good since being traded from the Detroit Tigers to the Mets. Considering he could help the Mets reach the playoffs (first time since 2006), and possibly even the World Series (first time since 2000) what we traded away is pittance compared to the return. He has been a “win” in every conceivable, measurable way. But he will be costly to keep around.
The Mets currently have a lot of money tied up in the outfield with Curtis Granderson and Michael Cuddyer. Keeping Cuddyer is not a reason to not re-sign Cespedes, but it would mean he would have to be moved, while eating almost all of that remaining $12.5 million contract. While for most any club, that would be a reasonable exchange, the Mets have not proven to be a reasonable club when it comes to spending money over the past several years. When considering that same Cuddyer contract was seen as a major free-agent signing for this New York club less than a year ago, it would be a rather dramatic change in culture to see the Mets start throwing money around to keep Cespedes.
There are several other factors to consider as well. Michael “can I please get a picture on BR” Conforto‘s play should make him a lock to start next year, so that’s one less spot in the outfield, and an extremely inexpensive one at that. There is also Juan Lagares and Brandon Nimmo to consider, but again neither is a reason not to re-sign Cespedes. Granderson has been having a resurgent season, and doesn’t look to be leaving any time soon. Meanwhile the Mets, in an attempt to reach the playoffs, did trade away a lot of young pitching talent which could have gone to replenish the rotation in the next few years. As a result, the Mets starters will have to start getting extensions sooner or later, and handing out roughly $20 million to Cespedes for an extended period of time will definitely impact how that plays out.
This isn’t to say that there isn’t some feasible way where Cespedes and his miraculous production can’t stay in New York for a long time. But based on everything that the Mets have done, even just a few months ago, it doesn’t seem likely. The only possible scenario where Cespedes stays as a Met is short-term. Maybe a high salary, low years deal could be worked out if Cespedes is more interested in championships over money. I’ll give that an educated guess of that happening at 10%.
The only way we’re really going to keep Cespedes around and still have a decent team around him is to trade Matt Harvey or Jacob deGrom. One of those pitchers will bring back a tremendous return as far as replenishing the pitching in the minors goes. Meanwhile either one’s exit would release the financial obligation that is baring down in the next couple of years. As Harvey has more service time, is likely due a raise sooner, and has an unfortunate habit of irritating the faithful, all signs point in his direction. If keeping Cespedes really is the goal, this way you can kill two birds with one stone.
Will any of these things happen? Who cares, we’re in first place! None of this is meant to stifle the euphoric emotions permeating the Mets fanbase. It’s just something to consider. We’re all going ga-ga over Cespedes, and honestly who wouldn’t? He’s been phenomenal. But the calls for him to remain a Met are somewhat short-sighted. It would take an awful lot of wrangling for that to work. Could it work? Sure. Stranger things have happened after all. For instance, have you heard the story about the team that was the best, then the worst, then best again all in one season? I heard they made it a very memorable year.
“The only way we’re really going to keep Cespedes around and still have a decent team around him is to trade Matt Harvey or Jacob deGrom.”
This is a false statement.
Be careful throwing “Only” out there.
The Mets could simply spend the money to keep Cespedes and return to having a “Big Market Payroll”
You’ve hit upon the largest point though. The Mets don’t “need” Cespedes in 2016. They have Granderson, Conforto, Cuddyer, Lagares and Nimmo already on the roster which makes Cespedes more of a luxury.
Trading a pitcher to sign an outfielder is not a move that I understand.
Agreed, poor phrasing. However, I’ll do that trade for several reasons. Cespedes’ play has been outstanding, and he makes the Mets a tremendously better team. Pitchers also get hurt more often, and produce less WAR on average. That’s breaking it down very generically, but I think a fantastic position player is more valuable than an ace pitcher.
Hi, my name is Metsense and I am a Cespedesholic.
Can you blame me? I watched six years of some crappy, penny pinching baseball and on August 1st Roy Hobbs and Wonderboy walked through the door!
I realize what he is doing is movie like and unrealistic to be sustainable over a season. I will take his career season line for the next two or three years. His presence in the line up solidifies this order as a center fielder. It is a .150. OPS increase over what we had before with still solid defense. How many times have the Mets signed a free agent that just can’t perform in NY? Yeonis has shown he can handle the challenge. Citi Field is hopping and the revenue is pouring in! This team is poised for a dominant run. I normally am opposed to large free agent
signings but this has already proven to be a special case. I am all in and would go as high as 7/154 because Cespedes will probably not settle for less than Ellsbury money in the same city.
Yes, 7/$154 is about where I’d go, too. (I seem to agree with 95% of everything Metsense writes.)
Would be great to get him for 6/$140.
With Cespedes, I think Mets are frontrunners to repeat division title. Without him, I don’t know.
BTW: I do not trade Matt Harvey.
Not this year, at least. Dude is a great pitcher and will be better next season.
I’m not in favor of giving Cespedes a 7-year deal. But if we do, I hope we front-load the deal for once, instead of all on the back-loaded deals we always seem to sign.
I respectfully disagree. I think that the Mets have caught lightning in a bottle here and should “do what it takes” to sign him. Especially given the newly crowned diva Matt Harvey, the Wilpons would be wise to sign Yo to keep the turnstiles spinning. In my opinion, the long term contracts in all sports never look good towards to later years. It’s merely a way to spread money out and comply with salary cap rules. So if the Mets sign Yo for $150M over 7 years, get 4 years of all-star productivity and remain viable pennant contenders through 2019-20, I think we’d all be happy.
I think if I asked you in June about the wisdom of signing Cespedes to a 7-year, nine-figure deal in the offseason — you would have dismissed it out of hand.
Things change and certainly they’ve changed in this particular situation. He’s going through an extended hot stretch and has been better than anyone could have possibly dreamed. I’m okay for granting that things have changed for the better. I’m not okay saying he’s gone from a 116 OPS+ guy to a 183 OPS+ guy.
If I thought he would deliver a 150 OPS+ from 2016-2019, I’d be okay with the seven-year deal. I’m just not convinced he would do that in one of those four years, much less do it four times in a seven-year deal.
I’m loving that he’s on the Mets now and would like nothing better for him to continue to bash this way against Kershaw, Greinke and whichever other pitchers he faces in the playoffs. And if he does, I’ll certainly re-visit my thoughts about the seven-year deal.
Brian, nobody in their right mind wants to give him a 7 year contract at that price from a baseball productive point of view. In the business profit world it probably makes more sense. The Mets have room to sell 10,000 more seats per game. That is a lot of revenue.
I’m not saying you’re wrong.
I’m saying it’s that mind-set that leads you to sign Ryan Howard to a 5-year, $125 million deal with an option. Nobody outside of a handful of people in Philadelphia thought that made sense. And it didn’t. The baseball production point of view should always be front and center.
I think short, heavy salary contracts will become more popular.
FWIW, I would trade Harvey this off-season in almost any scenario. It is hard for me to imagine what he could do to turn the fans around, realistically speaking. He could be incredible for another 15 innings (or whatever Boras decides) for the rest of the season and toss a great game in each of the playoffs, but the unprecedented special handling that the Mets will need to do to accomodate him will not be lost on the fans. I could be wrong, but the Mets fanbase appreciates the lunch-bucket kind of player, not the prima donna.
I agree with Aging Bull regarding the fan base attitude toward Harvey. Trading him this off season should net a return of 4 or 5 young players to replenish the farm. He is controllable for 3 more years, and those will be relatively low cost. However, I’m not sure if he is ready to proceed on an all-in basis for any team until he gets that mega contract. I’ll take a lesser talent that is willing to be all-in.
As for Cespedes, I wouldn’t go past 5 years and $125 mil. If that’s not enough to get him, we may have to say “Its been nice,” and hope our younger everyday players are starting to come through. One thing for sure, the Wilpons will dump a few of the higher paid veterans like Murph, Colon, Clippard, Uribe, and maybe trade Niese to keep total ayroll down.
I strongly disagree with Old Geezer and Aging Bull, both of whom by their handles should remember how Tom Seaver became portrayed as a “prima donna” in the papers (by Dick Young especially, but it wasn’t just him) and shipped out of town. Seaver was as aloof and superior as Harvey.
I don’t care that “the fans” are in a snit over Harvey’s concern about his health. He is in his first year back from TJ surgery. No sane person believes that he is in the same boat as a perfectly healthy pitcher who has not had the surgery. Of course Harvey needed special care and handling this season. Again: He just returned from TJ surgery. It doesn’t make him soft. It makes him, and the entire organization, credibly cautious.
I won’t go into how it all played out, since clearly there were mistakes all around.
So the fans are in a snit over Harvey. Okay, fine. Do you trade him for anybody? What package do you want? And why won’t that potential trading partner just sign Jordan Zimmerman or David Price?
Next season, it’s not at all clear that Zack Wheeler will come back and be effective. I don’t think you can count on that. And guess what? He’ll need special handling, too. Not because he’s some kind of spoiled creep, but because he’s coming off a career-threatening injury. Then the Mets have Noah, Matz, and de Grom. Awesome. But it the Mets trade Harvey, and just one of those guys goes down, suddenly the Mets rotation goes from outstanding to merely pretty good. There’s nobody in the minor leagues that compares; that well has run dry, at least for a few years, maybe more.
I would not at all be in any rush to trade away Matt Harvey. Up until this injury, he’s only been a guy we’ve all recognized as a fierce competitor and a great talent. If he’s also a bit of a jerk, so what. Come the playoffs next season, and the year after that, I very much like the idea of that guy on the hill for the New York Mets.
Again, rule of thumb: When you are fortunate enough to have a talent come along like Matt Harvey, you consider yourself lucky, and you keep him.
I was not promoting a rush to trade Matt Harvey, mind you. I was just trying to make sense of a supposed large signing. Harvey will get paid one day, but if it’s not going to be by us, then perhaps we should get as much as we can for him sooner rather than later. A Cespedes deal will greatly impact what pitchers we will and won’t be able to keep, that’s the point.
James I agree. The Met’s don’t know if and when Wheeler will pitch. Will he be effective? How many innings does he pitch? You don’t trade Harvey just because he has Boras as his agent. Alderson has dealt with Boras before and will be in no hurry to move Harvey. He’ll likely be able to pitch 200+ innings next season. How many can the Met’s count on for Wheeler? Signing Cespedes should be the priority for the off season for the Mets.
Sandy has stated that the Mets will increase payroll as revenues rise. According to a recent article in the Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/15/sports/baseball/as-mets-rise-city-starts-to-change-its-pinstripes.html), “the Mets are averaging 31,257 a game this season, a 17.6 percent rise from last season”. Also, TV “viewership is up 62 percent, to 240,091 a game. And games are averaging 324,195 viewers since the Mets acquired the slugging outfielder Yoenis Cespedes on July 31”. The data seems to suggest that ownership might be inclined to increase payroll in order to sign Cespedes.
Sounds like cheap owners to me.
On Cespedes, if you don’t go at least six, I don’t think you’ve got a shot. My gut tells me that seven is a fair offer — and that’s where I’d draw the line.
Let’s call it 7/$160. He is 29 years old, that brings him to 36. There’s plenty of money in the budget for this contract.
Two years ago the Mets signed a 32 year old Curtis Granderson @ 4/$60, bringing him to his age 36 season.
Signing Granderson was the right risk two years ago, and the Cespedes contract would be a comparable risk with a much greater upside.
Cespedes is the far more talented player.
If the Mets sign Cespedes there is absolutely no need to trade Harvey. Signing Cespedes and going into 2016 there would be no holes in the line up. The weakest link is the two headed shortstop who is actually average. Hererra at 2B is the risk or gamble but Johnson on the team would reduce the fallout of a Herrera bust. I would not trade Harvey for at least two years and in that time span offer him an extension. Baseball is a business and in those two years Harvey will be giving the Mets some really good pitching. If an extension is unfeasable then trade him before he walks and you get nothing.
Exactly, you’d get nothing. I’d leverage two good years of Matt Harvey against insuring the future of the minors. But I’m cautious.
Wait, what? You’d trade away Matt Harvey to improve the minors?
Did I read that right?
You also have 18 million coming off the books with Murphy and Colon
Ding, great point! I think that money can help bring Cespedes in. But that’s also money not going to keep pitching.
The Mets don’t need to pay the pitchers for at least a couple of years. This club has a realistic shot to contend for the World Series right now and over the length of Matt Harvey’s contract.
I’d try to grab the brass ring, fill the stands, sell the merchandise, watch the ratings rise, and see where we’re at down the round.
Paying the pitchers is a non-issue for me at the present time.
I agree with Robby. You can apply the money the Met’s will save from not re-signing Murphy and Colon. That’s nearly 19 million there. Moving Cuddyer and eating half of his salary would give the team an additional 6 million. More than enough to sign Cespedes Lagares should be your 4th outfielder with his affordable salary. You non-tender Gee and trade Niese saving an additional 14 million that can be applied to players in arbitration. Parnell and Blevins are also FA’s who will not be re-signed. Payroll should be higher next season from increased ticket sales this season and playoff revenue (hopefully 110 million). You don’t have to trade Harvey. Not necessary to have a knee-jerk reaction to the in fighting between Boras and the Met’s.
I think I had a full leg jerk reaction, but that’s not why I think he’d make a good trade.
Cepedes real jetk he did not play for mets anymore he spin t hy e mets like a top just day it cepedes this cocharoche i donot want play lazy cochroche