The haunting phrase “7 games up and 17 to play” has been brought up a lot lately, especially in recent days, after two Met losses and two Nationals wins quickly turned a 9 ½ -game lead into a 7 ½ -game lead. Thankfully, the Nationals lost last night so the lead is back to 8 games. Last weekend we were all feeling confident, but as Mets fans know all too well, once you feel confident, that’s when things can go south in a hurry.
We all thought it was a lock in September before the Phillies got hot and the 2007 Mets stopped winning. As did the 1995 Knicks, up by 6 with 18 seconds left before Reggie Miller impossibly scored 8 points in 9 seconds. New York fans are scarred by these types of disheartening collapses and they loom in the back of our minds alongside jilted lovers and rejection letters.
There are 16 games remaining and the Nationals are a formidable team with a weak remaining schedule. Plus we end the season with a three game series against them. Why can we be confident this time? Five reasons.
1- Do the math
The magic number is currently 9, meaning any combination of Mets wins and Nationals losses totaling 9 will clinch the division title for the Mets. Despite the gap between the Mets and Nationals closing a bit this week, Baseball Prospectus still gives us a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs. This includes the remote possibility of earning a post-season berth as a wildcard. FanGraphs has us at a slightly more modest 98.6 percent to win the National League East.
For the final series of the regular season (Nationals vs. Mets at Citi Field just in case you didn’t know) to even matter, the Nationals will have to win 12 of their next 13 games, while the Mets do no better than 7-6 in their next 13. Here’s a breakdown of what the Nationals will have to do to stay within three games of the Mets going into the last series.
|
Mets |
Nationals |
| 13-0 | ELIMINATED |
| 12-1 | ELIMINATED |
| 11-2 | ELIMINATED |
| 10-3 | ELIMINATED |
| 9-4 | ELIMINATED |
| 8-5 | 13-0 |
| 7-6 | 12-1 |
| 6-7 | 11-2 |
| 5-8 | 10-3 |
| 4-9 | 9-4 |
| 3-10 | 8-5 |
| 2-11 | 7-6 |
| 1-12 | 6-7 |
| 0-13 | 5-8 |
If any of the more unlikely scenarios should happen, the Nationals would come into Citi Field for the last series showdown three games behind the Mets. They would first have to complete a 3-game sweep of the Mets on the road to tie, then win a one-game playoff, which would also be on the road based on head-to-head record (Mets currently up 16-10). If it should get to this point, can anyone imagine the Mets getting swept four games at home with the season on the line?
2 – Look at the schedule
Other than three games apiece vs. the Nationals and Yankees, the Mets have 10 remaining games against bad teams – the Reds, Braves and Phillies, against whom we are a collective 27-8 this season. With the three Braves games at Citi Field, it’s hard to fathom not winning at least six or seven of these games. This weekend’s highly anticipated subway series with the Yankees is also at home and will feature Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey on the mound. Can we take two of three? You bet we can. Going 8-5 or even 7-6 over the next 13 games shouldn’t be that tough and that would likely eliminate the Nationals from contention and put Bryce Harper’s bat, Stephen Strasburg’s arm, and Jayson Werth’s beard in the rear view.
3 – Look at the roster
Besides David Wright, this year’s Mets team’s only connection to the 2007 team is a loyal and cautious fan base that can’t shake the epic collapse from nine years ago. This team has better pitching, more depth and more heart than the 2007 team had. Plus, “we have a Cespedes.” The remarkable depth that this team now possesses both on the bench and in the bullpen allows us to withstand injuries, rest veterans, play the hot hands and allow Manager Terry Collins to play the splits and capitalize on match ups. The 2006 Mets were fantastic and could/should have won a World Series. But the 2007-2009 version had older players who got injured and lacked the depth behind them to fill the voids.
Additionally, the 2015 Mets have a balance of veterans coming back from injury or playing in a contract year and young kids trying to make their mark who all have something to prove. It’s a formula that has worked for the New England Patriots for years. A hungry team is a winning team.
4 – Look at who’s running the show
Say what you will about Collins’ in-game decision making and handling of the bullpen, but it’s undeniable that this team plays hard for their skipper. Collins also seems to have lady luck on his side, looking like a genius when some recent questionable moves panned out (Kelly Johnson and Kirk Nieuwenhuis hitting pinch hit homers, Hansel Robles shutting down opponents in extra innings, etc). Willie Randolph is a good guy and a respected baseball man, but at some point his team quit on him.
General Manager Sandy Alderson has gotten a lot of praise for building a formidable young pitching staff and bolstering it with shrewd mid-season trades. He quietly possesses the bulldog determination of a hard-throwing closer. The Mets will not collapse on his watch. If things start to go south, you can bet that he’ll step in to right the ship, whether that means roster moves or introducing new strategy.
5 – Two words – Aaron Heilman.
The Mets flopped in 2007 because closer Billy Wagner and setup man Duaner Sanchez were both injured and Heilman blew five of six save opportunities down the stretch. Heilman was a solid setup man for a few years, but throughout his career he was a disaster as a closer, saving just 16 games in 47 tries for a horrifying 34% save percentage. If the unthinkable were to happen and Jeurys Familia were to go down, Tyler Clippard and Addison Reed both have closing experience. Hell, Anthony Recker could probably step in and save more games than Heilman.
Take a deep breath, Mets fans. We got this.
If we hadn’t swept the Nationals in DC I’d be nervous. That was the Nats’ chance to make a run and they literally blew it. Now that said, I felt just as confident about the 2007 Mets. But as you said, the only connection to that collapse is David Wright and laundry. With the magic number at 9, I feel confident about our chances.
No, I can’t say I felt as confident in ’07 as I do now. This team is deeper, hungrier, has waaaaaaay better pitching, and a Cespedes. The ’07 team had none of these things. Plus, the division itself was much better. In addition we’re done with the pesky Marlins. They are busy skull effing the rotting corpse of the Nats. Time to worry about catching the Dodgers for home field.
The only reason I was confident in 2007 was because at the time the idea of blowing a 7-game lead with 17 to play sounded insane even by the Mets’ standards for letdowns.
Have to feel confident. Obviously the math is increasingly on our side. Mostly these Nationals don’t appear to have that kind of run in them.
Yes, the series in DC was huge. The Nats led all three games. The Mets starting pitching was poor. If they won two, it would have been a much tenser situation.
They didn’t. I’m chill.
And yes, scored playoff tickets!
In 2006, I sat in a Des Moines Iowa Bar (Hotel Fort Des Moines) surrounded by Cardinal fans. Seeing my beloved Mets drop games to the Cards killed me. At least the catch by Endy Chavez gave me reason for hope. 2007 was another story but 2006 was my heartbreak…………….
RobD, the heartbreak stays with you. What this fan base needs is a championship. That goes double if you’re also a Knicks fan like me.
There is no connection with 2007 except our Met DNA, and a legacy of fear and not performing at critical junctures, except occasionally. For Mets fans to be jittery, is hardly a surprise. In Atlanta last weekend, I brought a sign that said “See You in October” and a Mets fan behind me started yelling at me to hide it, lest I jinx the team. The PIX11 camera put it on TV! Antsy? For certain.
As former Mayor of Panic City, I still can see 2 reasons to cover my eyes with a blanket and just hope for the best. First, our starting pitching has gone to crap. In dont care about what anyone says, the month-by-month ERA of the starters has done nothing but climb since July. Aside from Noah’s fabulous start in Atlanta, its been thin pickin’s. Second, the “other worldly” offense will have a difficult time sustaining what it has done. This feels like a brush fire more than a sustained burn. I just hope the smoldering part is enough to sustain.
The math makes it clear the kind of collapse needed to not take this would be monumental, especially so given the schedule. With 10 games against literally the worst teams in the sport, it looks inconceivable.
Let just hope we dont see Nieuwenhuis, Lagares, Campbell in the OF, and Johnson, Uribe, Flores, and Wright on the infield with Recker catching too often. That team could go 2-14 pretty easily.
That lineup you described was Terry overplaying his hand with righty vs. lefty matchup. Unless there is a series of injuries, Campbell and Recker don’t belong in this lineup before we clinch.
I am a little concerned with the pitching as well. Niese has been mostly awful for the past month, deGrom looks tired (note drop in arm slot and flattened plane on his breaking pitches), Harvey is on innings watch. These guys should all get some rest before the post season and hopefully that helps. And hopefully, Sandy assembles the right bullpen (no O’Flaherty please) and the right rotation (sorry Niese).
I too, along with friends and family, have been totally irrational about things that might jinx the team. My primary Mets hat is totally tattered but I’m afraid to replace it in season.
I agree, but we can’t get too cocky. Anything can happen in this game…it ain’t over ’til its over!
There’s not going to be a collapse. And even if there is the Nat’s don’t have the consistency in their offense (other than BH) to catch the Met’s. Their starters have been just as inconsistent and their bullpen is their achilles heel. The Nationals have been losing to inferior teams as of late. As for the Met’s schedule Matt. The games you expect to win are the ones you usually lose. Those weak teams that are out of the play off race see this as their opportunity to do some damage. I, like Chris worry about our starters. Niese has been awful lately and Colon very inconsistent. Are deGrom, Harvey and Syndergaard starting to wear down? What is Alderson’s plan for the young starters when they reach their innings cap? The next few weeks will be interesting but I will not celebrate until I know for a fact the Met’s have mathematically clinched.