Dave Cameron offered his take on removing Matt Harvey last night after five scoreless innings. He pointed out that Harvey was getting ready to go through the order for the third time and this year, batters facing Harvey for the third time had a .710 OPS versus the .646 OPS they have facing Hansel Robles.
The key is to remember that Harvey probably wouldn’t have lived up to those standards either. The choice the Mets made wasn’t to take out a guy who going to continue to be unhittable and replace him with a batting practice machine. In reality, the Mets took out a starter who has been roughly an average pitcher the third time through the order this year, and replaced him with a perfectly solid reliever. It didn’t work this time, and it happened on a national stage, but it’s certainly not ridiculous to realize that letting Harvey pitch deep into games has only a marginal benefit versus handing those middle innings to relievers who are likely to perform at a similar (or better) level.
But is there any difference when Harvey is throwing zeroes, like he was on Sunday, versus what he’s done over the season as a whole? Harvey has made 26 starts this year prior to yesterday and 11 times he’s not given up an earned run after five innings. Here’s how he pitched in those games:
| Date | Performance |
|---|---|
| 4/9 | 6 IP, 0 ER |
| 5/1 | 7 IP, 0 ER |
| 5/13 | 7 IP, 0 ER |
| 5/18 | 8 IP, 0 ER |
| 6/16 | 7 IP, 0 ER |
| 6/21 | 6.2 IP, 1 ER |
| 6/27 | 6 IP, 0 ER |
| 7/31 | 7.2 IP, 1 ER |
| 8/5 | 7 IP, 0 ER |
| 8/11 | 8 IP, 0 ER |
| 8/28 | 6 IP, 0 ER |
So, in those 11 games where he started out with five innings and no earned runs, he added 21.1 IP and 2 ER. In nine of the 11 games, he did not allow a run and he gave up just one apiece in the other two. So, while in general it seems like Harvey was not a better choice than a rested reliever to face a lineup for the third time, it seems that in the particular case where he’s dealing that yes, it does make a difference and we should prefer Harvey.
The flip side of that is when Harvey has already given up runs, the Mets probably would be wise to sub in a competent, rested reliever. In the other 15 starts where he gave up a run by the fifth inning, Harvey allowed 19 ER in 21.1 IP from the sixth inning on.
It’s not surprising that there’s a difference between the splits listed above. But the size of the difference is downright shocking to me. How he can go from a 0.84 ERA to an 8.02 ERA is a bit of a mystery. It’s also a happy coincidence that he pitched exactly 21.1 IP in both halves of this split. It’s extremely likely that the innings when he’s getting knocked around are more stressful than the ones where he continues to put up zeroes.
Nice analysis Brian
Excellent piece of research, and something that the team itself is failing to take into consideration it seems.
Thanks Dallas and Patrick!
At some point I need to go back and do this for the rest of the starts in Harvey’s career to see if it’s still the same huge spread. I still can’t quite get over that 8.02 ERA.
I would like to see this data
This article is the reason Mets 360 is best. Great research.
The huge difference in ERA feels due to the sample size issues.
Otherwise, on days he’s rolling he’s more likely to do better than on days he’s struggled early.
Outstanding and what i like is that your conclusion passes the eyeball test. I agree with MetSense that this is the kind of content that sets M360 apart.