George Constanza once had a summer all to himself. But that was nothing like Michael Conforto‘s summer. The young left fielder for the New York Mets was honored by the organization on Monday by being named the 2015 Sterling Award Minor League Player of the Year. Surely it goes without saying, but the award is extremely well-deserved. He catapulted up three levels of baseball in one year, putting up a .811 OPS in St. Lucie before unleashing a .899 OPS in Binghamton. It’s a mere .892 in New York so far. He slammed 12 home runs and drove in 56 runs in his first 91 games above college. He outperformed his competition so well that he was promoted all the way to New York just a little over a year after being drafted. It literally boggles the mind.
Since being called up directly from Double-A Binghamton in late July, Conforto has a amassed a batting line of .285/.363/.540 with eight home runs, 23 RBI and 27 runs scored in just 48 games. Advanced statistics tell an even more impressive story. His ISO is a whopping .241, his wRC+ is 147 and he has a 1.8 fWAR in just a little over a quarter of a season. That last number represents the fifth-best among Mets position players this year, and only Yoenis Cespedes has a better wRC+. This has been a breakout year for the young rookie, and it looks as though the sky is the limit.
Mets fans who clamored for Conforto’s drastic promotion are heralding themselves as geniuses today, and rightfully so. After all, the Seattle native has done little wrong in his first two months of major league baseball. Not only has he brought with him from Double-A the very consistent bat he was known for, he’s also provided more power than even optimistic prognosticators thought. Steamers predicted a 91 wRC+ for the remainder of the season, and most people would have taken that as a successful debut. His defense has been solid as well, as he’s displayed average speed and a strong, accurate throwing arm. In fact, the only thing he hasn’t done much of yet is hit lefties. Considering he’s only had 11 ABs against them though, that’s to be expected. And that is mostly due to him being one of six outfielders on a division-leading team, and the powers that be assuredly want his ego to stay high. Look for that to change immediately next year.
So what does the future hold for the best minor league player in the organization? Well for starters, he’s probably not going back to the minors. Even if the Mets somehow are able to pony up the six-year contract Cespedes is apparently searching for, it would be foolish for this club to send Conforto back down just so Michael Cuddyer can earn his paycheck. While the Cespedes signing is still very unlikely, if it happens the Mets would be better off packaging Cuddyer and Juan Lagares in a trade. Then an outfield of Conforto, Cespedes and Curtis Granderson can run amok around the National League.
Conforto’s place is all the more certain if Cespedes does go somewhere else, as that would mean the offensively-challenged Lagares would be back in centerfield full time. Either way, Conforto will probably at least platoon with Cuddyer and other outfielders for at least three to four starts a week beginning in 2016. That seems like a good recipe to ease him into a full time position facing both righties and lefties. Should Cuddyer stumble or get hurt, then the youngster is there to assume the role for his own, and hopefully not give it back. As he will be entering just his second full year of professional baseball, and 23rd year on the planet, there seems to be a tremendous amount of growth potential for the Mets best prospect.
Perhaps the best quality about Conforto is his knack for using the whole field. He’s hit home runs from the left field foul pole to the right field foul pole, and impressed commentator Keith Hernandez on more than one occasion with his pop. While his grounders are mostly pulled, his linedrives and flyballs are already finding the gaps. As he gets used to the league and becomes more comfortable in his role on the team, this inherent ability should help him blossom into one of the best young hitters in the NL.
Maybe this is me getting ahead of myself, but there isn’t much to dislike about young Mr. Conforto. He plays the game extremely well at a young age, and for very little professional experience. To me, that’s intangibles. That’s not a word you hear about much anymore, but this kid might just have it.
Now if only we could get him a picture on B-R.com.
Conforto not playing against LHP is the single dumbest thing this organization has done this season. There is no second place. It is stupid beyond belief. It is Trumpesque. The guy will sit on the bench for the entire NLDS except for one game against Grienke; he’ll probably hit a HR.
I am amazed & staggered by how many people are okay with this abject idiocy. These must be the same people who didn’t want him to come up in the first place, because he’d be ruined and, after all, what’s the big urgency anyway? He can hit LHP next year. Right, because: no reason!
The team has decided that they will not even look at him against LHP. He won’t get the opportunity. Because, um: no reason!
Juan Lagares? Michael Cuddyer?
In five years, I hope we don’t all remember how perennial All-Star Conforto sat idly on the bench and watched helplessly as the Mets struggled to score in the NLDS.
Everything in his track record indicates that he can hit LHP. Terry and Sandy have taken an outstanding young hitter and reduced him to a platoon player before he even gets the opportunity to help the Mets win.
Frustrating.
It’s so frustrating, in fact, that I am made crazy by a post like this that can talk about what a great player he’s been while just lamely glossing over the fact that the Mets refuse to play the guy against LHP. Why are you okay with it?
It’s the classic episode of “The Simpsons,” when Homer has put together a stacked softball team. In the final inning, he pinch-hits for Strawberry because they brought in a lefty.
Platoons in general can be smart and effective. But there are times when TC becomes a Platoon Robot. It’s the LOOGY thing on the other side of the ball. Very good players transcend platoons.
Let’s see what the young man can do. Of course, it’s probably too late. Totally unfair and unrealistic to have him face Kershaw without any preparation vs. LHP.
It’s anti-intellectual.
It’s choosing “not knowing” over “finding it.”
It’s choosing ignorance over knowledge.
I hate it, hate it, hate it.
Thank you very much.
I agree that he should have been giving more ABs versus lefties earlier. I think putting a rookie in a platoon can be damaging. But I also think Conforto is talented enough to cope and grow with experience. So I don’t mind as much. But I understand your frustration.
And I think the Mets have done stupider things this season.
Cuddyer plays against lefties and has been every bit as productive as Conforto since the dl trip. Why bury the guy they thought so much of and risk Conforto failing?
Risk Conforto failing?
Risk it?
Seriously?
There’s some huge risk in seeing how he performs against LHP? He’s going to do that much worse than Juan Lagares? He’s going to crumble in the face of a new challenge?
What if he succeeds?
Anyway, this has gone on since he got here, it’s been pre-ordained. He’s not going to get a chance to help the Mets win a game with his bat, the best hitter this organization has brought up since David Wright.
OTOH, the decision has gifted roles to Cuddyer and Lagares, so everybody’s happy.
I still believe that it’s an indefensible position for anyone to argue that he should never get the opportunity to hit LHP.
Not even a little curious?
Just to follow up on the options vs. LHP:
Cuddyer has been very good during his career against LHP. This year he has an OPS of .736 vs. LHP, slugging only .362.
Lagares is also good against LHP. He’s got a .775 OPS in 2015, compared to the .603 he’s put up against RHP.
Neither player is bad. And I’m not advocating that they never play. Or for that matter that Conforto always plays. I am saying that — very simply — it would have made sense to find out how Michael Corforto performs. After all, his OPS is .943. But he’s only gotten 11 ABs vs. LHP. I figure that’s one start and sporadic, late-game PAs vs. random relievers. Hardly a shot.
None of this even discusses Granderson’s .162 BA vs. LHP.
So there has been plenty of room to “risk” giving Conforto ABs.
Then you get data, assess the evidence, and make an informed determination.
Oh well.
Not playing Conforto against lefties is the single dumbest thing this organization has done this year.
Wait, that’s my point!
James, well said.
He is going the other way after being pitched inside.
He has it all.
He has power, skill and the humility to learn.
Let him grow! Let him in against lefties. This is someone very special and may be the next David Wright for us.
He is smart.
I appreciate how Cuddyer has taken him under his wing. Conforto seems to love learning, too. He seems to love the game.
Imagine the numbers he would have put up in Vegas?
Vegas? Imagine the numbers he puts up in a full season in the Show!!
I give full credit to Depo & C. for having him on radar and him being their #1 selection from the get go (although Schwarber was a nice catch!). I read a couple articles recently about the draft and his selection, and how absolutely giddy the FO was that he made it to 10th position in the draft. The kid can play, and will hit lefties.
It’s hard to believe he played in the Futures Game in July!
James, I know what TC has said, but let’s wait for the playoffs to come before we see what the lineups look like and how he is played (or not).
Chris, if starting Conforto against LHP in playoffs was even a remote consideration, wouldn’t it be even more outrageous not to give him any practice at it for more than two months? You can’t suddenly say, “Hey, changed our minds, meet Clayton!”
Only an insane thought process could bring them to that decision.
Again, this all might ultimately be the right short-term decision — Cuddyer might do great! — but it would be a choice not based on any solid information. Maybe Conforto hits lefties as well as righties. We don’t know, and that’s my point.
We haven’t been intellectually curious enough to find out.
I hear ya. But we all know playoff baseball is not regular season baseball. The strategies are different, the rosters look different, and implementation of plan looks different. I think its more magnified because of how dumb September roster look.
All the sudden starters are in the pen, all the sudden the pitcher/player balance is different, and without a question the strategies change. We know people get different assignments when there is no more tomorrow. If Lagares cant hit lefties, then expect Conforto in.
If we have the great fortune to win the pennant, it will indeed be interesting to see how TC makes this happen.
Discussing this with a friend, at least part of the decision-making process was to keep Cuddyer and Lagares involved. They had roles. Otherwise, maybe there’s less happiness in the dugout.
I do believe that the vibe and chemistry of the team has been part of the success. Which is why I take all 6 starters on the postseason roster. It just feels wrong to dump Niese after all these years. I think if he gets a spot, he’ll rise to the occasion.
In the case of Niese, Cuddyer, and Lagares, all three are signed for next season. Not necessarily the guys you want to go out of your way to alienate.
I really enjoy reading your perspectives James. However this time I just completely disagree. I could not care less about what Niese thinks about being left out of the post season. This is about winning games not pandering to players who’s ego can be injured. You want to play in October? Play better in the regular season. This is big league baseball, not the minors in Little League. Niese has repeatedly shown he gets eaten alive more times than not. I dont believe for one second that because he lived through the hard times hes owed a roster spot in the post season.
Vibe and chemistry do matter. But surely everyone must realize post season baseball is a different beast altogether. And shame on Wright and Cuddyer if they havent prepped this club for changes that have to come.
Leave Niese off the playoff roster? At the absolute least Niese can serve as the essential loogy, so Mr. O’ can go F.
To me, I have more confidence in Niese than I do in Verrett and Gilmartin and Goeddel, who are all young & inexperienced &, so far, underwhelming.
Niese deserves a spot in the postseason over any of those three. He’s earned it.
At this time, the Mets have so many OF tools at their disposal that I have no problem with their current use of Conforto. Their success speaks for itself, IMHO. For 2016, however, Conforto has to be an everyday player. He’s a legit 30+HR, 100+RBI guy, who is batting close to .300 and is among the league leaders in assists for left fielders (although I’m sure he will have less opportunities next year as word gets around the league about his strong, accurate throwing arm; why not have him switch outfield positions with Granderson next year?). Conforto (and Travis d’Arnaud, in my opinion) are two key but unsung heroes in the Metsies’ recent surge to the top.
Editor’s Note – Please do not capitalize words in your post, as that is a violation of our Comment Policy
Regarding Conforto and Baseball-Reference: buried in the “Leaders/Batting” title are records of rookie players. Michael Conforto currently has the 16th highest WAR compiled of Major League rookies, and all but two of those ahead of him have at least twice as many Plate Appearances as Michael. The exceptions are Miguel Sano, the new Designated Monster of the Twins, with 123 additional PA’s, and Devon Travis of Toronto, who has 82 more PA’s than Conforto.
Conforto is actually doing something pretty special here. So, I went to the gold standard of big rookie splashes in less than half a season to see how he stacked up, namely, with one Willie McCovey.
Well, McCovey had a crazy 55 games, quite a bit beyond what Conforto has managed. I did note two things: one, that McCovey did, in fact, play against both righthanders and lefthanders in that first season; it was the next few seasons when the Giants platooned Willie. And he hit lefthanders like crazy; his stat line was .340/.407/.660 against lefthanders, no less…!
But then there’s this, a tool not available in 1959: McCovey’s Batting Average on Balls In Play for that third of a season was a cool .382. To finish the thought, McCovey did actually show a typical platoon split over the course of his career, and his BABIP was actually rather low, .273. Those rookie numbers did actually happen, but they weren’t of predictive significance — except for the detail of McCovey going on to be a great player.
In one normalized McCovey’s numbers and compared them to Conforto’s…….no. Won’t go there. But what Conforto is doing is special.
Hey guys, I love Conforto, but let’s not coronate him yet. Pitchers will try to make adjustments. Let’s see how he progresses.
As for the platooning, yes he should have had more opportunities against lefties.
However, TC and Mets fans have waited a long time for a pennant race, so I understand the line-up platoons.
And JP, no it’s not the dumbest thing done this year. In my mind nothing compares to wasting a roster spot on EOF.
At least with O’Flan they didn’t know what they had initially. Why Eric Campbell made the team out of spring training over Matt Reynolds is more egregious if you ask me. Don’t care for Reynolds? The Mets had several other better options, and Campbell had already shown what he couldn’t do, in the second half of 2014.
I like your points Norme.
Norme, O’Flaherty did not work out, but I actually think it was a good decision to give him a look. He was a struggling lefty, but with a large body of success behind him. The Mets brought him over, gave him some opportunities, and he failed. They’ve moved on.
I think it’s was smart. They took a cheap flyer on the guy.
The distinction is that the process was correct; the result was beyond their control. If they use him in any meaningful situation this year, then, yes, that would be criminal.
Likewise, DED, teams need guys at the end of the bench. I never hated Campbell as a 25th guy. He just played far, far too much. When it was clear they needed a 3B, it was obvious that Campbell wasn’t the guy.
Of course Conforto is not a platoon player in the future. It is becoming apparent that he is going to be an all star leftfielder batting 3rd for at least the next six years for the Mets.
On August 1st he was just a AA rookie finding his way. His hitting helped the Mets take the division lead but Cuddyer and Lagares were also a part of the resurrgence. Things are working so there is no reason to change things up.
2016 will turn the page and Cuddyer will become a replacement for Conforto, Duda and Granderson. I hope the Mets ease Herrera into the 2016 infield rotation like they did Conforto. It is great when a rookie can contribute but is not relied on to be a savior.
The plan is to have Conforto on the bench for 80% of the NLDS without ever knowing if he could do the job or not. He’s the great hitter who doesn’t get off the bench.
And at the same time, everybody agrees that he gets to hit LHP next year. And the year after that, and so on.
I believe in this year. We should have seen how he’d perform and made an informed decision based on results.
Instead they put him in a box and didn’t let him out.
I think he’s a better hitter and fielder than Michael Cuddyer. I think he’s a better hitter than Juan Lagares. I think he’s special.
This was very poor postseason planning.
But I’ve promised myself that I’d stop writing about this, so that’s that.
They should have taken a look at the kid.
Rookie of the year?