Terry Collins has a lineup dilemma

Who here is kind of afraid of the lineups that Terry Collins is going to trot out against the Dodgers in the National League Division Series? That’s a general question, but more specifically applies to the rotation that the Dodgers will be throwing out against the Mets. The team from Los Angeles will have a rotation with three left-handers in Clayton Kershaw, Alex Wood, and Brett Anderson.

Obviously one of those pitchers is not like the others, but the Mets as a team have not been entirely successful against southpaws. That’s not completely accurate in and of itself, though, so bear with me. The team has a wRC+ of 99 for the season (though in the second half that’s jumped to 117). Against left-handers their wRC+ for the season sits at 102. That’s kind of surprising, but if we delve a little deeper we see that they have a wRC+ of only 79 when facing lefties as lefties.

Basically, the team’s left-handed hitters have generally been bad against left-handed pitchers. We need only analyze individual players to confirm that, with one notable exception. Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy, and now Michael Conforto would be considered this team’s primary lefties, with at-bats from players like Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Kelly Johnson, and Darrell Ceciliani sprinkled in there. It’s not pretty.

• Granderson wRC+ 54
• Murphy wRC+ 75
• Conforto wRC+ 27
• Duda wRC+ 146

There are a couple of notes here. First, Granderson hasn’t been this bad against lefties since 2010. In fact, he’s been quite good against them in recent years. The problem is that each season is a small sample unto itself, and when we break it down to platoon splits on any given year we’re looking at even smaller samples. However, going by his overall career wRC+ of 87 against lefties we can see that sitting him against the tough ones is probably the right call, at least when there are other options available.

Second, it’s pretty unfair to include Conforto on that list because he only has a whopping 12 plate appearances against left-handers. That’s three less than Jon Niese. He’s included here because he’s the presumed future left fielder and Terry Collins has made a conscious choice to prevent Conforto from facing left-handers for essentially his entire time on the major league roster. It’s not entirely clear why this was done except to keep getting at-bats in for players like Michael Cuddyer, who had been awful but has flourished in a platoon role. Conforto struggled against lefties in Hi-A this year, but did quite well against them in AA with a slash of .333./414/.490 and an OPS of .904. Whatever the reasons were for shielding him, it’d be foolish to throw him into the fire at this point.

Third, Murphy has actually been pretty solid against lefties over his entire career but he too has had ups and downs. His wRC+ has ranged from above average to lows in the mid-70’s (including this year’s 75). Perhaps it’s simply a down year for him against lefties. Finally, Duda is just mashing lefties. Of course, last year he was absolutely awful against them and he hasn’t had tremendous success against them over the years. On the surface it seems that Collins is going with current performance and the hot hand instead of career norms. That’s generally a good thing, especially when it seems to be working as well as it has for the Mets.

The dilemma here, then, is what will Collins do with the lineup against the many lefties the Dodgers will throw at him? Do you really sit Granderson, Murphy, and Conforto for potentially four of the five games? The numbers suggest that yes, at least against southpaws, that’s exactly what you do. It seems simple on the surface, but it’s more complex than that. Can Collins stomach, and justify, sitting some of his best players in such games?

It’s easier to do for Murphy since his overall wRC+ of 110 places him firmly in the middle of the pack performance-wise. Conforto, on the other hand, is second (142) to only Yoenis Cespedes (164) on the team in wRC+ for the season, albeit with limited time facing lefties. Granderson has been a revelation at the top of the lineup and there’s not a single player on the potential playoff roster that would come close to filling that role over so many important games.

The Mets have been able to use platoons to their advantage much of the year and there will be options for Collins should he choose to stay the course and leverage what’s been working for him. Wilmer Flores is an option to fill in for Murphy and, as mentioned earlier, Cuddyer has done well in a platoon. But again, we’re talking about four of five of the most important Mets games in almost a decade. It’s a perfect storm of circumstances for the Dodgers. Their lefty-dominated rotation is taking on a team where half of their best hitters are lefties. They, in a sense, have negated some of the Mets’ most potent weapons.

How will Collins respond? Will he go with what’s been working for him so far or will he revert to getting his veterans and best, though flawed, players into the most important games of his career? His comments about starting Duda, Murphy, and Granderson against a left-hander today suggest that he’s at least considering leaning on them during the division series. Which games, though? How many games? What would you do?