With Juan Uribe still being hampered by his chest injury, news has come out that Kirk Nieuwenhuis will be on the roster for the NLDS. It stinks not having Uribe available. But for anyone who appreciates guys who bust their tail and maximize their talent, seeing Nieuwenhuis getting a chance to participate in the playoffs is a nice thing.
By now, you probably know Nieuwenhuis’ story. A three-sport star in high school, he received football scholarships from Division I programs but opted to focus on baseball and ended up at an NAIA school. From there he was a third-round pick of the Mets in 2008. Dismissed by many because of his small-school roots, Nieuwenhuis hit at every level in the minors and earned his way to the majors in 2012.
While he’s spent significant time in the minors each year since making his MLB debut, Nieuwenhuis is still somewhat of a fan favorite. Sure, everyone is a bit horrified by his strikeout rate. But fans are also intrigued by his power, speed and defense. He’s capable of playing all three outfield positions and now has about a full year’s worth (1,308 innings) of time in the field under his belt. UZR shows him with a 2.2 rating while DRS has him at 8. Additionally, both systems show him as positive in his time in CF, even though UZR did not like his work there in 103.1 innings this year.
Now the question with Nieuwenhuis appears to be if he’ll ever make the jump to full-time MLB player. He was on target to establish himself this year but two different organizations ended up giving him the boot, not the greatest vote of confidence for his chances going forward.
Things looked rosy for Nieuwenhuis after he posted a .259/.346/.482 line last year. Back in 2010, here was a blurb on Nieuwenhuis as a prospect:
If he continues to develop and everything falls right, Nieuwenhuis could be a .250/.350/.450 guy in the majors with 20-HR, 20-SB potential. That’s pretty much the definition of Nate McLouth.
McLouth was an All-Star in 2008 and he ended up with a 10-year career in the majors. Nieuwenhuis only had 130 PA in 2014 but his line prorated over 500+ PA would have looked right at home if snuck unto McLouth’s Baseball-Reference page.
But the thing about Nieuwenhuis’ 2014 stint with the Mets is that it came with a .361 BABIP. What would happen if/when the hits stopped falling in for him? Well, we saw that in 2015. For the year, he had a .280 BABIP and was able to post only a .645 OPS. Distributed evenly, that would have been enough to have kept him employed in the majors all season as a backup OFer capable of playing center. But it wasn’t that way at all.
Nieuwenhuis had a .143 BABIP when the Mets cut ties with him in mid May. And in 10 games with the Angels, he had a .231 BABIP and a .436 OPS.
You probably guessed he hit much better in his second stint with the Mets. Thanks to six homers in 77 PA, he finished the year with a .922 OPS over his final 37 games. In addition to his power, the BABIP gods were smiling on him again, as he posted a .366 mark in the category.
As Juan Lagares and his fans found out this year, you cannot count on super high BABIPs for non-elite players showing up yearly. It’s one thing for David Wright to post BABIP marks of .335 and above eight times in 11 years. But since 2000 only 19 players have amassed 3,000 PA with a BABIP of .335 and above. In that span, 343 players reached 3,000 PA, so only 5.5% of the players did it.
For his career, Nieuwenhuis has a .326 BABIP in 693 PA. Does he have the ability to produce a high BABIP going forward? It’s certainly possible but you probably wouldn’t want to wager on it.
The tricky thing with Nieuwenhuis is his strikeout rate. Even when he was hitting well in his second stint with the Mets in 2015, he had a 29.9 K%. If a team is going to employ Nieuwenhuis, it has to accept that high strikeouts are part of the bargain.
At the end of the day, we have an extremely streaky player who’s going to strike out a lot regardless if he’s in a hot streak or a cold stretch. That may not be an ideal profile for a reserve in the playoffs. But for a fourth/fifth outfielder in the regular season, it’s a perfectly acceptable one.
Let’s look at reserve outfielders in 2015. There were 67 OFers this past year to have between 100 and 300 PA. Nieuwenhuis ranked 44th with a 79 OPS+. And this was a season where he did not have a high BABIP.
Nieuwenhuis probably cannot fall much from his 2015 output and remain on an MLB roster. But considering that his BABIP this year was 20 points below what we consider “normal” and 46 points below his career mark, our default assumption should have him regressing at least a little bit in a positive matter.
Yet it’s easy to say that in theory and another thing to live with in reality, especially if the hits aren’t falling in. In his first stint with the Mets in 2015, Nieuwenhuis had a 42.5 K%. Combine that with a .143 BABIP and it’s hard to convince anyone to wait on regression. No one shed a tear when the Mets initially moved on from Nieuwenhuis – or John Mayberry Jr., for that matter. It’s not an easy thing for any organization to do, waiting for regression. It’s certainly not easy for the player, either.
But this is where being a good guy comes into play. To the best of my knowledge, Nieuwenhuis didn’t slam anyone on his way out the door. Eventually, he got a second chance in 2015 and he made the most of it. Contrast that with Dillon Gee, who spoke out against the way he was handled and didn’t get the second chance that Nieuwenhuis did. Shoot, they created a spot for Tim Stauffer but wouldn’t do it for Gee. They also gave a second chance to Eric Young Jr., who also handled himself well when he left the Mets. There’s a lesson in there somewhere.
The bottom line for me is that Nieuwenhuis as the team’s fifth outfielder is fine for 2016, when he’ll still be a pre-arb player. And if he gets off to another poor start, we should probably give him longer than mid-May before replacing him. He’s produced for the team before, he doesn’t hurt you defensively and from all indications, he’s a team player.
He’s just not a very good ballplayer. Simple as that. I loved him coming out of the minors in 2012 to replace the injured Andres Torres. He slashed .325/.386/.475 in 2012 before Torres came back, but from May 1st until the all-star break he hit a mere .241 with a .640 OPS. He never was able to handle not starting on a regular basis.
You pointed out that he never really slammed the door on the way to Vegas, but that could be argued. If I recall, he said that it was “embarrassing” being called up and sent down so often. I don’t consider that “talking trash” but it was interesting.
The kid has gone through more than any player on the roster; from his countless promotions and demotions, to his appearance with the Angels, to his pinched nerve, and his countless heroics for this team since 2012 he deserves this chance to play in the postseason. I would rather have den Dekker as a 5th outfielder, but Nieuwenhuis is a great guy and a grinder. I hope he gets a big hit in this series, and he should get the chance to be a 2016 Met.
Do you have a source for that “embarrassing” comment? Sounds like something a commenter on MetsBlog might say
The reality is that Kirk is an extra piece and an adequate 5th outfielder. A better player continues to work hard at decreasing the bad outcomes and increasing the good ones. I would not be surprised seeing him in a package for another big fat for 2016. Mets need one more game changer. Hard to spend a lot of tine agonizing about someone who is an extra player on the team. And den decker did not do much for the Nationals.
Somebody has to be the 25th guy. I don’t think there’s anybody on the planet who thinks he’s a potential starter. When guys pass through the waiver wire without a blip, that should tell you something.
Kirkkkkk tore up Spring Training because pitchers weren’t throwing their quality off-speed pitches. He is a guy who a good ML pitcher can handle, with more holes than Swiss cheese. Terrific glove and a good attitude. The definition of a Replacement Level player.
Wish Uribe was healthy.
Makes me wonder about how Nimmo fits into the picture.
Nimmo needs to succeed at Triple-A before worrying how he fits in the majors. A .418 SLG and an .810 OPS at LVG is not good. That said, I expect him to turn in a strong year in Vegas in 2016.
“Nieuwenhuis as the team’s fifth outfielder is fine for 2016, when he’ll still be a pre-arb player.”
But he is not good enough or consistant enough to be a platoon center fielder with Lagares if Lagares does not learn to raise his OPS. The Mets offense falters when the back of the lineup is Lagares-Tejada-pitcher over any length of time. The Cespedes aquisition showed that more offense from centerfield made this team better. Next year may end up a platoon and I am uncomfortable giving Kirk that many at bats.
If you run a straight platoon, here are the career marks:
Lagares vs. LHP — .753 OPS
Kirk vs. RHP — .736 OPS
AVG NL CF in 2015 — .737 OPS
I’m not advocating for this; I’m pointing out that if this happened, it would be fine.
LH bats with some Pop, Legs, and an “adequate” or better CF glove tend to hang around.
He’s had a few opportunities that have fallen to him, including this Post Season chance. I always hope that something will stick for a guy like Newee. The Contact rate and the K’s and The quality of contact (although rare) add up to Hit and Miss…a high BABIP rate, with a Too Low BIP rate. if he could hit at 20% k rate, he’s a decent 4/5 OF’er
At a 20% K rate, Kirk is a starting OF.
He’s got 693 lifetime PAs in the majors, about a year’s worth for a guy who plays 155 games. He’s got a 31.5 K rate and a .326 BABIP. If all of a sudden he makes 11% more contact, that’s 76 more balls in play. If we give him a .300 BABIP — that’s 23 more hits. That gives him a .269 AVG. Holding his isolated OBP and SLG standard — that’s a .269/.343/426 line.
But normal guys just don’t cut 11% off their K rate. Barry Bonds did it from his rookie season but I can’t think of anyone else who did.
Is Kirk really worth this discussion
Comments like this annoy me. Negativity for no reason. If you don’t like talking about a guy — don’t talk about him. Clearly others feel it is worth discussing. Go piss in someone else’s cornflakes.
c’mon….. the guy found his way on to a Playoff Roster, after a truly miserable season! He’s putting a thumb print on the history of baseball…maybe he has “A Moment”…??? …baseball history is filled with “unlikely guys”.