The L.A. Dodgers have won the NL West for the third straight season because they have two of the best starting pitchers in baseball. Three-time Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw and 2015 Cy Young favorite Zack Greinke form the top 1-2 punch in the majors. Kershaw led the league in strikeouts, while Grienke led in ERA. Combined the duo was a staggering 35-10 with 501 strikeouts in 455 innings. Despite this formidable duo and home field advantage, the Mets are going to win this series and here’s how.
The Dodgers have a terrific closer in Kenley Jansen. The imposing right hander struck out 80 batters in 52.1 innings en route to 36 saves and a ridiculous 0.78 WHIP. The good news is that the bridge from Grienke and Kershaw to Jansen is as rickety as the Tappan Zee. Beyond Jansen, the Dodgers bullpen includes righties Juan Nicasio (32 walks in 58 innings), Yimi Garcia (8 HRs allowed), Pedro Baez (3.49 ERA), and Chris Hatcher (3.82 ERA) and the lefties JP Howell (1.4 WHIP, .273 BAA) and Adam Liberatore (4.30 ERA).
While there’d be no better tone to set than to knock out Kershaw in game one like a new inmate cold cocking the biggest guy in the prison yard, that’s not likely to happen. The Dodger ace gets rocked about as often as Matt Harvey has dateless Saturday nights. Our best bet is to run up his pitch count by fouling off lots of pitches (Daniel Murphy, Michael Cuddyer, Ruben Tejada) and artfully drawing walks (Curtis Granderson). If we can keep the game close and get Kershaw off the mound after six or seven, we’ve got a chance to deliver a knockout blow in the 7th or 8th inning.
The same strategy can work against Grienke. It has to, because the typical Mets strategy of stacking the lineup with lefty bats (Michael Conforto, Kelly Johnson) won’t work against this righty. Grienke’s splits are just ridiculous. Lefties and righties both hit under .200 against him this season. The good news is, we don’t need to score more than a run or two off of him or Kershaw. Just draw a few walks, lay off the first pitches, run the counts deep and get them out of there after six or seven innings.
Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard can match them inning for inning. There’s been a lot of talk about the shadows at Chavez Ravine. How well do you think the Dodgers lineup – nothing special aside from first baseman Adrian Gonzalez – will fare against the blazing fastballs from deGrom and Syndergaard coming out of those same shadows?
Keep it close, knock ‘em out early and we’ve got the superior lineup, bench and bullpen to beat them in the late innings. Following this game plan should result in a split in L.A. before coming home to Citi Field and Matt Harvey on the mound likely against lefty Brett Anderson (.284 BAA) – a mismatch if there ever was one. Game four, also at Citi Field, will likely feature a rested Steven Matz against a lefty leaning lineup and either a short-rested Kershaw or one of Mike Bolsinger (1.35 WHIP), Alex Wood (4.55 ERA) or Carlos Frias (1.47 WHIP).
Mets in four. LGM!
I think that will be the plan in the series and is the reason that Flores and Lagares are not starting in Game 1. They don’t take pitches and they don’t walk.
Dodger middle relief is the difference in the series. If they pitch well or the Mets can’t capitalize on their deficiencies then the Dodgers will have a strong chance.
Then again, things don’t usually go as planned. Still, the Mets in 4.
Totally agree. If we win – and we can – we will look back and Granderson and Murphy will have been key to chasing at least one of the two aces early.
I just hope that Mueph doesn’t cost us with one of his brain farts.
It’s almost showtime! I’m getting geeked up a little by little and by game time, I will need to be left alone big time!
I’m with TexasGus. I’m so amped up I can’t concentrate at work.
Stoked as well but am at ACL music fest. Seeing Gary Clark Jr and Foo Fighters. Mets on MLB when I get home. LGM!!