Yesterday, Charlie wrote an article at the site discussing, among other things, the contributions of Sandy Alderson to the NL pennant winners. A couple of people in the comments were not overjoyed with Alderson receiving praise. One felt that Omar Minaya should receive more credit than he gets and another thought that the rebuild took too long and that Alderson should have acted with more urgency sooner.
The last season of Minaya’s tenure was 2010 and the Mets went 79-83 in that season. Alderson took over a team with stars on the major league roster but one that had suffered numerous injuries the past two seasons and one that was maxed out financially. With very few dollars at his disposal, Alderson had to get creative with trades or make do with the talent on hand and hope for health and bounce back seasons. He opted for the latter and we know how that worked out.
But instead of rehashing Alderson’s performance from 2011-2014 and the four years of sub .500 ball played by the Mets, let’s look at the other poor teams from 2010 and see how they fared. Did it take Alderson too long to put a World Series-caliber team on the field? There were six teams in the NL to finish with a worse record than the Mets in 2010. Here’s how they did in both previous and subsequent years:
Brewers (77-85) – Milwaukee finished with 90 wins in 2008 but proceeded to win 80 games the following year before dropping three more in our comparison year. The Brewers rebounded to win 96 in 2011 but they lost that year in the NLCS and have finished no higher than third in the NL Central since then. This year they were 68-94 and they face a long battle back to the land of 90 wins again.
Astros (76-86) – Houston finished under .500 two of three years before 2010 and finished in third place the one year they topped 81 wins. After 2010, they bottomed out in a way the Mets never did, looking to get high draft picks. The low point was a 51-win season in 2013 but there were also years with win totals in the 50s in 2011 and 2012, too. So the Astros finished below .500 in seven out of eight years before returning to the playoffs in 2015.
Cubs (75-87) – Chicago went from 97 wins in 2008 to 83 to 75 in our comparison year. The Cubs proceeded to go 271-377 the next four seasons, which allowed them to draft Kris Bryant (#2 overall) and Kyle Schwarber (#4 overall) in back-to-back years. Those youngsters were instrumental in leading Chicago to the playoffs this year for the first time since 2008.
Nationals (69-83) – Washington finished .500 or below six consecutive seasons before our comparison year, including back-to-back 59-win seasons in ’08 and ’09. They were also under .500 in 2011 before breaking through with a 98-win season in 2012. The franchise had eight straight seasons of mediocrity or worse. The ’12 team broke through thanks to back-to-back overall number one picks Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, along with high dollar free agents Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche.
Diamondbacks (65-97) – Arizona won 90 games in 2007 and then strung together these win totals: 82-70-65-94-81-81-64-79. That’s .500 or worse seven times in eight seasons and the one time they were good they were bounced in the NLDS.
Pirates (57-105) – Everyone knows this story. Pittsburgh is the team that wandered in the desert for 20 years before finally topping a .500 record in 2013. They’ve made the playoffs three straight seasons. That may not make up for the 20 years that went before but you’d definitely want to be a Pirates fan right now over the D’Back or Brewers. And likely the Nationals, too.
OK, we saw that none of the teams turned things around in a year or two. But did a new GM/front office come in and make an immediate difference? Here’s how our teams ranks on that front:
Pirates – Neil Huntington was hired on 9/25/07 and had his first winning season in 2013.
Diamondbacks – Kevin Towers was hired on 9/22/10 and the club had a winning season in 2011.
Nationals – Mike Rizzo took over on 3/4/09 and had his first winning season in 2012
Cubs – Theo Epstein took over on 10/22/11 and had his first winning season in 2015
Astros – Jeff Luhnow took over on 12/8/11 and had his first winning season in 2015
Brewers – Doug Melvin took over on 9/25/02 and had his first winning season in 2008
So, the Pirates had their first winning season after five losing years with their GM. The D’Backs had success immediately but how much of that was because of the moves of Towers? Here’s what Jonah Keri of Grantland said on the subject:
”Much of the credit belonged to others, however, with former scouting directors Tom Allison and Mike Rizzo and former GM Josh Byrnes having drafted, developed, or acquired many of the players (including Justin Upton, Montero, Gerardo Parra, Josh Collmenter, Ryan Roberts, Daniel Hudson, and Ian Kennedy) who turned in excellent 2011 seasons.”
Plus, the fact that Towers was unable to sustain his early success certainly counts against him. To no one’s surprise, he was relieved of his duties in September of 2014.
The Nationals had their first winning season after three losing years with their GM. Rizzo cleaned up on his first overall draft picks and took advantage of ownership’s deep pockets. The Cubs and Astros also cleared .500 after three losing seasons with their GM. Both teams had longer stretches of poor play before the GM took over and had the benefit of much higher draft picks.
The Brewers had five losing seasons under Melvin before notching two playoff appearances in four years. But a fourth consecutive losing season following the last playoff appearance in 2011 cost Melvin his job.
Meanwhile, the Mets had four losing seasons under Alderson before advancing to the World Series in 2015. While other new GMs did it a year earlier, those franchises had longer stretches of poor play before they took over than what Alderson did. They reaped the benefit of better draft choices and had more available payroll to import new players.
One can certainly argue that Alderson should have tried to bottom out to reap the better draft picks. However, it’s quite likely that he had a mandate from ownership to try to win as many games as possible to keep attendance from cratering.
The bottom line is that Alderson has done a fine job of trading veterans for prospects and has done well drafting in the middle tier of the first round. He was able to build up the farm system so he had the necessary pieces to trade prospects for veterans when he deemed the time appropriate, even if some of us would have liked to have seen him cash in a trade chit or two at the 2012 AS break.
Of course, it’s still too soon to make a definitive statement on Alderson’s tenure with the Mets. It’s wonderful that he’s gotten the club to the World Series, which none of the other six GMs from our comparison group have been able to do so far. But Huntington and Rizzo have multiple playoff appearances to their credit and few will be surprised if Epstein and Luhnow do the same.
Alderson will have to keep the Mets as regular playoff threats or else he will suffer the same fate as Melvin and Towers. The young core that Alderson has brought up to the big leagues – and yes, he’s not responsible for bringing many of those initially into the system, so credit to Minaya – positions the club to be perennial playoff participants the next several seasons.
As a fan, it seems like he’s done a good job.
Just re-read this piece before posting and thought of a potential criticism – why look at only teams worse than the Mets in 2010? Why not look at teams that were close to them and better? There were three clubs that fit that bill – Marlins (80-81), Rockies (83-79) and the Dodgers (80-82).
The Marlins won 87 games in 2009 but 2010 marked the beginning of six straight losing seasons. The Rockies made the playoffs in 2009 but have posted five consecutive losing campaigns after finishing with 83 wins in our comparison season.
The Dodgers broke free of the Frank McCourt reign early in the 2011 season and buoyed by ownership with deep pockets – they had the highest Opening Day payroll in 2015 by over $50 million – have ripped off five straight winning seasons, including three straight playoff appearances. Los Angeles has won the division title six times in 10 seasons under GM Ned Colletti. They also won the West the year before he was hired. The 2010 season was the only time under Colletti the Dodgers have finished under .500 in a decade and the franchise only has two losing years this century.
I love the GM timeline comparison. Nicely done. My biggest issue with Sandy was some of free agent signings, particularly in the bullpen. I’m not sure you can blame him as much as ownership and the injuries to Harvey and Wheeler for the rebuilding delay. If he had looser purse strings and fewer Tommy John surgeries, Sandy could have certainly got us here a year sooner.
We’re in the World Series. It’s a reasonable length of time. However, the biggest issue with contracting the time is Simple: we did not have the pitching needed to succeed in the post season until this year.
Nice job, Brian.
Someday (I hope) a book will be written detailing the history of the Mets under the present ownership. Perhaps we will learn the interactions between Alderson and his bosses. My personal belief is that the Madoff fiasco created a situation where ownership was more interested in surviving than winning. The selection of SA as the GM (thanks to Bud Selig) was the perfect mating of an impaired ownership and a value-oriented GM.
The team that began the 2015 season was never going to win the pennant. The mid-season moves made by Alderson, and the collapse of the Nats, changed that. Astute moves, good luck? Take your choice.
David wright has no home runs and he stinks. Retire wright you are killing the mets
Instead of going on talk shows maybe David wrong should get his butt in the cage and try and hit a homer off someone not named Ricky bones
“The bottom line is that Alderson has done a fine job of trading veterans for prospects and has done well drafting in the middle tier of the first round. He was able to build up the farm system so he had the necessary pieces to trade prospects for veterans when he deemed the time appropriate, even if some of us would have liked to have seen him cash in a trade chit or two at the 2012 AS break.” sums but my feelings on Alderson also.
He is overly cautious and it has cost him on two trades.(Davis for Joyce and Gee for Escobar). He has not pulled the trigger on a straight up major league player(s) for major league player(s) trade (but almost in the Gomez trade). This being overcautious may have contributed in slowing the winning process down.
Alderson deserves the credit for getting the Mets to the World Series and positioning them as a successful team for the next several years.
I agree with Metsense in that Alderson was too greedy in making trades. He wanted the home run and wasn’t happy with a base hit. Britton was also available for Davis. While we don’t know what his financial restraints were, and there definitely had to be some, Alderson had to keep dumpster diving to bring in “MLB talent”. My thought is that the potential losses of Murphy and Cespedes may leave this team back where it was (if this team doesn’t change its all or nothing approach), but I’d rather win the World Series first and then start worrying about that.
I’m not worried about immediately reverting to sub .500 finishes if we lose those two guys. We have a solid replacement for regular-season Murphy already on hand in The Dilson and if Lagares can return to his 2013-14 form in the field, he’s an acceptable CF option. I’d still view SS as more of a problem for the team.
Regarding Brian’s comment, one thing: assuming all the arms remain attached next season, and that Wheeler does make his appearance come July; at that point the Mets will have the most strikeout capable rotaton I have ever heard of, ever. Strikeouts are outs, of course, and when the opposition is K’ing it isn’t hitting grounders into the hole. So to that extent the shortstop problem will be less of a problem.
It is clear that you and I disagree on how much Flores’ defensive play costs the Mets. And you may well be right; but I keep remembering all those pennants the Yankees won with Jeter manning short — and I do believe that Wilmer is as good a defensive shortstop as their beloved captain.
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Defense is only part of the issue.
He hit better than I expected this year and improvement going forward is certainly on the table. But he doesn’t walk and he doesn’t post high BABIPs so if he’s not hitting homers, you’ve got a problem.
The first projections for 2016 are out on B-R and it has Flores essentially matching what he did in 2015. I think The Dilson would hit at least that much over a full season (B-R projection shows him with a .734 OPS) and his defense would be better. As for CF, Lagares posted a 4.0 fWAR in 2014 thanks to his great defense. Flores had a 1.9 fWAR last year and FanGraphs uses the defensive metric that views Flores in the most positive light. Check out his bWAR, which was 0.8 in 2015.
I maintain that if Cespedes and Murphy depart and they replace with internal options — Flores is still the weak link of the team.
So far as what Flores has contributed offensively to date, agreed. I like the stroke — or at least I like it when he’s swinging well, which sounds counterintuitive, even to me, but I know what I mean — and I expect there’s a bit more in the bag than what we’ve seen so far.
For him to be a successful full time player he’s going to have to hit a bit more and cut down on the out-making significantly, the two being related, of course. The Baseball-Reference projections are interesting; but hardly meaningful when considering any single player; they are composed of actuarial trendlines averaged out, which is not often how actual individuals progress or regress.
I’m just not ready to pass over on Wilmer Flores the hitter; I want to see the Second Act.
There is no reason to believe that the Mets will just rewind the ha dis of time now that they made the WS, and perhaps may win it. We have the pitching staff of a generation, in place trough 2018. There will be massive revenue from the post season. If Murphy leaves and Ces leaves, don’t expect to see our June line up in 2016.
Brian, thanks for putting out an objective assessment with facts. Benchmarking versus other situations is a great approach.
So why only consider 6 clubs and not all 30? So let’s go.I’m going to look at the past 10 years (or longer only if a team sucked for so long) a team went from under .500 to over .500 and record each time they did it.
D-backs: 09-11. 2 years.
Braves: 06-07 1 year, 08-09, 1 year
Orioles: 98-12 14 years
Red Sox: 12-13 1 year
Cubs: 10-15 5 years
White Sox: 07-08 1 year, 09-10 1 yearm 11-12 1 year
Reds: 01-10 9 years, 11-12 1 year
Indians: 06-07 1 year, 09-13 4 years
Rockies: 06-07 1 year, 08-09 1 year
Tigers: 08-09 1 year
Astros: 07-08 1 year, 09-15 6 years
Royals: 04-15 11 years
Angels: 10-11 1 year, 13-14 1 year
Dodgers: 05-06 1 year, 10-11 1 year
Marlins: 06-08 2 years
Brewers: 06-07 1 year, 10-11 1 year, 13-14 1 year
Twins: 07-08 1 year, 11-15 4 years
Mets: 09-15 6 years (4 under Alderson)
Yankees: never had a losing season
A’s: 07-12 5 years
Phiilies : not applicable
Pirates: 93-13 20 years
Padres: 08-10, 2 years
Giants: 05-09 4 years, 13-14 1 year
Mariners: 04-07 3 years, 08-09 1 year, 10-14 4 years
Cardinals: 07-08 1 year
Rays: 98-08 10 years
Rangers: 05-09 4 years, 14-15 1 year
Blue Jays: 04-06 2 years, 09-10 1 year, 11-14 3 years
Nationals: 04-12 8 years
As you can see, history is littered with teams with 1 or 2 year turnarounds. The Mets were statistically probable to have a winning season in Alderson’s first season (as 75% have done so in the last 10 years), and they had a chance in 2011 when the team was 46-43 and an even better shot in 2012 when they were 46-40 at one point. The fact that Alderson took 4 years to take his team from under .500 to over .500 puts him in the bottom 25 percentile
But, you may counter that and say that Alderson wasn’t look for a quick cheap fix to get a quick high. He wanted to build up everything and lay a foundation for a long term “dynasty” that could make the postseason for many consecutive years.
But the problem with that is that Alderson hasn’t achieved that. I see many people already giving Alderson credit because they think he’s created a team that can win for many years, when in fact history is filled with many one and done teams.
In fact, over the last 15 years, only 10 teams have put together consecutive postseason streaks of 3 or longer and only 4 teams have 4+
Tigers(11-14) 4 years
Angels(07-09) 3 years
Dodgers(13-15) 3 years
Twins(02-04) 3 years
Yankees… you all know
A’s(12-14) 3 years
Phillies(07-11) 5 years
Pirates(13-15) 3 years
Cards(11-15) 5 years
Rangers(10-12) 3 years
If Alderson does manage to make 2 more postseasons and join this exclusive list, it doesn’t matter how long it took him to going in the beginning, go ahead and praise away. But the problem is, we’re not even close to there yet.
So for now, the only criteria we’re left to judge him with is how long he took to turn the team around, and by my calculations, It took Too long.
Thank you for the time you spent researching this.
I think if you polled the other 29 GMs in baseball about the long-term chances of the 2015 Mets, the overwhelming majority of them would say that the Mets were well-positioned to continue to be a playoff-caliber team the next 3-5 years. Obviously they haven’t done it yet. If you want to be a strict constructionist on that point, you’re welcome to that position.
And that was the exact same position the Nats were in 4 years ago, and look at where they ended up
So why bother play the games? Let’s just discuss at the beginning of the year who should win and just anoint the winners that way.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/preview15/story/_/id/12588378/expert-team-predictions-2015-mlb-season
According to the “smart” folks at ESPN, in 2015, we should be looking an AL playoff field of the Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, with possibly Angels/Tigers as the wild cards and on the NL side: Nats, Cards, Dodgers, and Pirates/Marlins.
I don’t think what the overwhelming majority says means a damn when it comes to reality, but you’re welcome to believe in the mumbo jumbo they release every year.
At no point did I say to ask the people at ESPN.
If you polled the GMs that question about the 10 clubs who made the postseason this year, you’d probably get a majority of yes responses to 9, if not all 10 teams. Yet it’s more than likely that half of the teams in the postseason this year will not be in it next year and some will probably not see the postseason at all in the next 3 years.
You put a lot of work into this, that’s clear. From my perspective, the milestone is not a .500 winning percentage. That’s not even relevant, sorry.
While I agree that he brought in two of the five starters, he was able to (for the most part) choose the right players to bring in for the offense. He chose Curtis Granderson (2 more years) and Michael Cuddyer (1 more year) over Michael Bourn (probably two more years) and Shin-Soo Choo (five more years).
He also chose Wright over Reyes, decided to dump Mike Pelfrey, kept Murphy, and actually cut Jason Bay.
However, he signed Chris Young, dumped Justin Turner, traded Angel Pagan, and actually allowed Chris Schwinden to start more than one game.
Make no mistake I’m not a huge fan of Alderson, but he has pushed the right buttons about 75% of the time- which has led the team to a World Series appearance. (Not much else to ask for)
The “Bones” of a winner are in place….and it took too long…and they certainly squandered the 2014 Season (IMHO).
OK…. the question going forward is now just one thing—Does Management/Ownership have an ability and mindset to commit to winning? It’s now about a willingness to “write some checks”, and that includes doing it smartly. ….and it would , necessarily, mean writing some big checks.
The highwater mark of the 2014 season was when they were 15-11. On 6/1 they were 27-29 and at the All-Star break they were 45-50 and at the trading deadline they were 52-56.
At what point should he have made a move to go all-in on 2014 with Harvey out for the year?
Any judgement of a GM must include an assessment of the willingness of ownership to provide the necessary tools to build a winner. We’ll never know if Alderson would have been more successful working for a Mets owner willing and able to spend more than the Wilpons. All GMs make mistakes and Sandy has made his share, as did Omar and even Frank .
I really think a better avenue for our thoughts would be to enjoy the upcoming WS. During the off-season we’ll have plenty of time to dissect every facet of the Mets. We’ll also learn if ownership will use the profits garnered this season to increase the payroll in a significant manner. To fall back in this area would be a slap in the face to Mets fans.
My feelings 100%. “! really think a better avenue for our thoughts would be to enjoy the upcoming WS.” Well said.
I am looking forward to great Mets360 content about the upcoming series, matchups, strategy, tendencies, etc. Second guessing SA is not very interesting to me. THere seems to be a lot of energy for that here. To each his own.
This team is in the World Series. No one and I mean no one ever suggested this was possible. The idiots on this site who are picking through their feces right now complaining about timelines are simply children who haven’t been around long enough to appreciate how difficult it can be to get to this point. This is Aldersons forth pennant. If the Mets win it will be his second World Series victory. Alderson had all sorts of opportunities to trade Harvey, DeGrom, Thor and Matz and he didn’t do it. He gets Cespedes for nothing and some whiners start citing how great a pitcher Fullmer is. I have been watching this team since 1964 and I have seen the good, the bad and the ugly. Now I have to endure the stupid and the childish when I visit this site as well. If the people who run this clownmobile of a blog don’t like what I write or the manner in which I express myself then take your thumbs out of your mouths and delete this post. At this point I couldn’t care what you think. Buy the ticket. Take the ride. Alderson is the best Mets GM since Frank Cashen and this team is lucky to have him. Please excuse me but the smell of unchanged diapers is beginning to make me ill.
If you want to engage in an honest discussion about this topic, there are plenty of adults of all ages who are more than willing to do that.
However, your M.O. is to make a put-down of others, mention how long you’ve watched the team and then run away.
In your last post on the site on September 12, you left this little gem:
“Don’t bother to write any insulting rebuttals, I never read them anyway.”
If you want to impress us, quit mentioning how old you are and instead write a post where you come across smarter than a fifth grader.
several points i feel compelled to make here….
1. fourth place, not forth place. ( yeah, fellow readers it bugged me too )
2. i’ve been reading this blog for the past few years, and while i might not always completely agree with the post opinions, or other comments, they are, for the most part, highly informative, and give you something to think about as a mets fan.
3. if you’re that unhappy with this site, why do you bother to come here, much less make such negative & childlike comments.
4. i’ve heard that the product called Depends is a top rated diaper. perhaps you might convince your mom to visit you & your roommate Fley in the basement to change you more than once a day, and that odor problem you speak of will dissipate along with your unwarranted hostility.
5. a pox upon you sir. oh, er forget that, you got it covered….