The Mets were looking to make a move in the 2014 offseason that would improve the roster and make the Mets contenders for the Wild Card (that’s right… before the seasons we were hoping to be contenders). Michael Cuddyer was the man Alderson picked and, because none of us are perfect, I thought it was an okay deal.
Cuddyer profiled, if healthy, to sit behind Lucas Duda and provide some lineup protection to the one truly potent power bat in the Met lineup. The deal, two years at approximately $10 Million per, wasn’t over-the-top and it seemed that it was a safe, albeit less than we wanted, move.
It turned out that Cuddyer was virtually useless to the Mets in 2015. Sure, he was hurt for part of the year but between the emergence of Michael Conforto and the acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes, Cuddyer was sitting on the bench behind Juan Lagares waiting for playing time. That’s $20 Million dollars and draft pick for what essentially has become the Mets 5th outfielder.
Wait a second, draft pick? We lost a draft pick too?
Yes, dear readers, the Mets gave up the 15th overall pick in the 2015 draft to sign Cuddyer and that pick would ultimately go to Milwaukee. Here’s what people said when we signed Cuddyer:
Who We Got: (FA) Michael Cuddyer, OF/1B – “The move is a bit of a surprise. Cuddyer was thought to be out of the team’s grasp after the Rockies last week made him a qualifying offer, which would have paid him $15.3 million in 2015 and forced the Mets to give up their first-round pick if they signed him.”
Now, here’s the draft profile from the man who was selected 15th overall:
Who We Missed: (#15) Trent Clark, OF – “…If he makes the majors, it’ll be because of his bat, which projects to be at least above-average in the hit and power categories. If Clark continues to add power, his run game probably becomes even less a part of his game, which is a trade-off a lot of guys eventually make.”
The Mets obviously regret the signing for multiple reasons and it’s still too early to see what anyone from the 2015 draft will become. The man selected by the Brewers where the Mets would have drafted has been, sadly, excellent. Playing 55 games between the two levels of Rookie Ball he’s debuted with a .854 OPS and 25 stolen bases. There is little question whom Met fans would rather have right now.
The Mets might not have selected Clark with that 15th pick. They could have selected: James Kaprielian, Brady Aiken, Phil Bickford, Kevin Newman, Richie Martin, Ashe Russell, Beau Burrows, Nick Plummer, Walker Buehler, D.J. Stewart, Taylor Ward, Mike Nikorak, Michael Soroka, Jon Harris, Kyle Holder, Chris Shaw, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Nolan Watson, Christin Stewart, Kyle Funkhouser, Ryan Mountacastle, Daz Cameron, Tyler Nevin (Son of Phil Nevin), Jake Woodford, Nathan Kirby, Austin Riley, Triston McKenzie, Alex Young, Peter Lambert, Eric Jenkins, Thomas Eshelman, Donnie Dewees, Scott Kingery, Antonio Santillan, Brett Lilek, Austin Smith or Chris Betts instead. Something tells me that someone on this list will be a truly great player and I know I’ll never forgive Alderson for denying me the opportunity to have a Mets jersey with “Funkhouser” on the back.
These are the reasons that signing free agents who are given qualifying offers is such a difficult thing to swallow, this is why the Mets should extend a qualifying offer to Daniel Murphy and this is why Michael Cuddyer will be remembered as one of the worse signings in recent history.
I don’t like saying that “Trent Clark” is the man who Alderson missed. There’s no telling who he would have picked if the choice had come his way. I would have much rather have had Daz Cameron anyway.
It’s the same deal with the Mets signing K-Rod instead of drafting Mike Trout. Minaya would probably not have drafted some kid out of southern New Jersey.
However, it has become quite clear that Cuddyer is one of the biggest busts in the last 5-10 years in the front office. Like you said, it would go a long way for the Mets to extend the QO to Murphy- and have him reject it.
On a positive note, Desmond Lindsay looks pretty good.
If you read the article I believe I list every single player between Trent Clark and Desmond Lindsay.
My point was that Alderson could have picked any of the outfielders you listed, or any other player picked in between for that matter. I completely agree that Alderson messed up, it’s just that Trent Clark is not the person Alderson specifically missed out on- it’s all of the players picked in between Kolby Allard and Desmond Lindsay.
It would be the same as saying the Marlins missed out on Kevin Plawecki and Matt Reynolds for signing Jose Reyes. Yes I am aware it was a different system back in 2012.
When reviewing who the Mets might have gotten had they picked there I have to go with who was picked out of necessity.
I think your point is a pointless one to make when the article already states it.
What team is funkhauser on? I might want that jersey too. I lampooned this signing the minute it happened and it looks worse every day.
woulda coulda shoulda conver
I don’t think the Mets could foresee Conforto getting here so fast. Otherwise I don’t they would have signed Cuddyer, especially for 2 yrs.
I think it depends on how he does this season. So far I’d still say the signings of Chris Young, DJ Carrasco, Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, and going back a little further, Jason Bay, Luis Castillo are all worse.
Bartolo Colon was by far the worse because of how many pitcher’s careers he screwed up.
Let’s just start with the basics. He was paid an average of 10 million per year. That’s #2 starter type money, and at the very least #3. If you adjust the risk for his age, it might be as risky as #1 type money.
And what did we get for that return? A ton of innings, but crappy ones. His numbers over the last 2 years were on par with guys like Colby Lewis or Aaron Harang, guys who most Mets fans would react to with disgust if found out were Mets starters. But at least they only cost about 25% of what Colon was paid.
And let’s move on to the starters whose careers he postponed or derailed.
By far the biggest guy he screwed was Montero. Instead of letting him play out as a starter, the Mets kept shifting him back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation both this year and last year, which undoubtedly led to his injury this year and put his once promising MLB career, in serious jeapordy.
His presence also blocked Noah from making his debut last year last year as well as delayed Matz arrival this year.
In addition, Gee’s career was mismanged even though he was providing about the same production at a fraction of the price Colon was.
It’s no contest as to who was the worst FA signing in the past 15 years, or even for the entire history of the franchise.
Seriously?
Aaron Harang fWAR last 2 seasons: 3.3
Aaron Harang contract last 2 seasons: $6.0 million.
Aaron Harang value (based on 1 WAR = $7.5 million) = $24.75 million
Harang Surplus Value: $18.75 million
Bartolo Colon fWAR last 2 seasons: 5.3
Colon contract last 2 seasons: $20 million
Colon Value = $39.75 million
Colon surplus value: $19.75 million
It’s unfair to lump Colby in there. He didn’t throw a single pitch in 2013 for the Rangers because of elbow and hip problems and nobody knew what he could do coming back. He put up 1.2 fWAR in 2014 and was resigned relatively cheap and put up 2.6 fWAR in 2015. Colon was coming off a season where he had 3.8 fWAR, and over 2 fWAR in each of the previous 2 seasons.
I’m not sure what this proves. The fact that fWAR valuations suck? The fact that fWAR for pitchers is horrible?
Pitcher 1:397 IP, 4.13 ERA, 86 ERA+
Pitcher 2: 376 IP, 4.16 ERA, 91 ERA+
Pitcher 3: 375 IP, 4.90 ERA, 84 ERA+
Production wise, they’ve all been similar the last 2 years.
Name, for the record, I will never debate anything with you again. You bring facts by the bushel.
I guess you can make the argument that Syndergaard didn’t see a chance to make the majors in 2014 and that affected his pitching. But he really didn’t force his way to the majors that season.
It’s an interesting question if Colon was a more harmful signing than Bay. I guess it depends on how much you think of Montero and if he’s able to come back and provide anything in the future. Bay didn’t really block anyone and with the owners’ financial trouble, they weren’t going to spend that money on anyone else.
On Bay’s side there’s – we paid that much for that for that long?!?
On Colon’s side there’s – we paid that for two years of that and blocked/ruined Montero, too?!?
As a Montero backer, I certainly see the case for making Colon’s the worst one.
Montero and deGrom both came up and auditioned for the Mets. Montero was thought of more highly but deGrom excelled. I don’t think Rafael Montero is/was an exceptional talent. I think that he’s a capable and talented pitcher but I don’t think he was hurt by Bartolo Colon’s presence as I think he would not have given us better pitching over the same course of time.
Your first two sentences are facts.
Your third sentence is an opinion with which I do not agree.
As for your fourth sentence, if Colon was not on the roster, who do you think would have been the #5 starter on the Opening Day roster in 2015? If not having the chance to pitch as a starter isn’t being hurt by Colon’s presence, I’m not sure how you would define the phrase.
To be fair: Any sentence that has an “I think” in it, can’t help but be opinion. I was not disguising that.
If Colon was not on the team I think Montero might have gotten a shot but that is only a might.
I think that Bartolo Colon was a fine signing.
I didn’t think you were trying to disguise it, just merely pointing it out like I did with each sentence.
Might have gotten a shot? Wow, that’s quite a limb you went out on there.
Montero was given enough chances to try in 2014.
8 piss-poor starts and 4.06 ERA (5.14 FIP) later, it’s clear he needed more seasoning.
How can you say we ruined Montero? Because they tried him in the bullpen this season and he got hurt? How can you definitively say he wasn’t hurt before that happened? They don’t even know what’s wrong with him!
You guys blow my mind if you think Colon is the worst signing the Mets have ever made.
Worse than Bay? Bonilla? Vince Coleman? Luis Castillo? Oliver Perez? Chris Young? Kevin Appier?
What about Kaz Matsui who pushed Jose Reyes to 2B?
Editor’s Note – This is the third time I’ve told you about our policy with capitalizing words. There will not be a fourth.
I agree with your points, if not your vitriol.
There are many worse signings than Bartolo Colon who actually seemed to return equitable value based upon his contract.
I also agree with Mets Realist.
Editor’s Note – This comment deleted for violating our Comment Policy.
Montero had two bad starts in 2014. Here are his numbers:
1st 2: 10.1 IP, 8 ER, 6 BB, 3 HR, 6.97 ERA
Rest: 34 IP, 35 Ks, 3.18 ERA
Which do you think was more like the pitcher he had been throughout his career in the minors? It’s just not smart to dismiss a guy because he had trouble in his first two starts, especially one who had been as good as Montero in the minors.
The guy is injured now. It’s a possibility that switching roles contributed to that. No one can say that’s what caused it. People who refuse to even consider that possibility are either not honest or not bright. Or both.
Bay is certainly under consideration
The others you listed don’t come close to the financial output of Bay or blocking a potential stud like Montero.
I’d like you to define “potential stud,” please. To my mind that would put him in the same stratosphere as Harvey and Thor.
Montero seemed like promising starter but not a staff ace. You’ve done a good job in the past of laying out the case for Montero over Gee. Too bad the Mets didn’t quite see it that way.
Do Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler fit the definition? Because Montero was at least as good, if not better, than all of them in Las Vegas. Actually, Harvey was in Buffalo not Vegas, making Montero out-performing him in Triple-A all the more impressive. For a variety of reasons, a fair number of them invented, Montero has gotten the short end of the stick that the others didn’t.
If Syndergaard was the guy who got bounced back-and-forth between starting and relieving and ended up hurt — would you be upset?
All I want is for a healthy Montero to get two months of MLB starts in a normal rotation – something he’s never had and the above four pitchers have. Of course, at this point a healthy Montero may no longer exist.
I am a Montero fan also. Colon tanked between June 12th and July 29th when in 6 of his 9 starts he could not get past the 6th inning. Had Montero been healthy then he may have been given the opportunity. Gee was healthy but he already burned his bridges. Colon persevered and finished strong with 8 of his next 10 starts of 7+ innings. Looking back, the Colon signing did not make sense to me and the $20m should have been better utilized. He did impede the other younger starters who could have put up similar seasonal statistics. In the end, Colon did earn his contract so I can’t say it was a poor signing, just an ill advised one.
It’s an opinion to say the Colon signing negatively impacted the other pitchers since we don’t know how they would have performed anyway. Whereas we have direct quotes from pitchers like Familia who talk about how much Colon helped him this season. Maybe we overpaid for his production (although two seasons of 15 wins seems pretty reasonable to me, and it feels like he performed pretty well for a # 4 or 5 starter), but how do you put a value on veteran leadership?
Neither Noah nor Matz was ready last season. And I think their results this season were probably directly related to the extra time they spent in the minors.
Michael Cuddyer certainly put down the foundation as one of the worse signing with his 0.5 bWAR in the first year of his 2/21 contract. He did have a productive July with a .872 OPS and a better August with a 1.006 OPS but he tanked in September which is a bad sign for the future because he was playing with a platoon advantage.
Cuddyer starts 2016 as a bench player who should only be playing vs a LHP spelling Conforto, Granderson and Duda during the course of the season. There is hope that in this limited role he can excel.
There is a lesson to be learned from the Cuddyer signing. Players who are “marginal qualifying offer players” should be avoided because the loss of the draft pick makes the signing too costly. Alderson used his farm system properly to pick up needed pieces at the trade deadline. Signing Cuddyer and losing a draft pick is counter to this successful approach. Now that the Mets are positioned better they should no longer be compelled to sign a “marginal qualifying offer player” again.
We’re using Rookie Ball stats to argue that we would rather have the draft picks?
Rule of thumb: it’s not even worth looking at until a prospect gets to High A, and then seeing if they can make the jump from High A to AA (which is the most difficult transition for a minor league ballplayer.
Which would you rather have on the Mets for 2016? Michael Cuddyer at $10 Million or a lump of earwax?
Water under the bridge… can we move on from November 2014.