Last year the Brewers began a rebuilding phase. They traded away players on big contracts during the year, including Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Gomez, Gerardo Parra and Jonathan Broxton. The end result is that their end of year payroll was much lower than their Opening Day payroll. For this project, 2016 payrolls were based on 2015 Opening Day numbers. That meant Milwaukee had a ton of payroll room in this simulation.
But it seemed wrong to max out payroll given what Milwaukee had done recently, as well as the fact that the Cardinals, Pirates and Cubs were 97-plus win teams in the division. So, this was a rebuilding project.
Going in, here were my goals: Find a center fielder, upgrade at shortstop, find a third baseman, get a platoon partner for Scooter Gennett, add a starting pitcher and continue to bolster the minor league system by trading either Ryan Braun or Jonathan Lucroy.
My preference was to trade Braun and eight teams were identified as good trading partners. My top choice was the Twins because they had a cost-controlled SS and CF both with MLB experience and some interesting arms in the minors. I proposed Braun and $5 million for Eduardo Escobar, Aaron Hicks and Jose Berrios. I really expected that one to go through but the Twins wanted Orlando Arcia and that was a deal breaker.
The next one turned out to be the charm, as my offer of Braun and $5 million was accepted by the Astros. Heading to the Brewers in the deal were top prospects RHP Mark Appel and 1B A.J. Reed and young CF Jake Marisnick. Appel had a disappointing year but he remains a guy with a three-pitch repertoire, including a mid-90s fastball.
Reed, on the other hand, had a great year. He hit .340 with 34 HR split between Hi-A and Double-A. We need to take some air out of those since the Hi-A stats came in hitter-friendly Lancaster. But this is still a premium offensive player, who should be ready to step in no later than 2017.
Marisnick’s first full season in the majors was a bit of a disappointment but he was a highly-regarded prospect and he also had a very unusual split last year. He had just a .604 OPS in his home park, compared to a .730 mark on the road. He’s a solid plus defensively in CF, with a +5 DRS in 757.1 innings in center last season. If he can hit at home like he did on the road, that’s a nice player at essentially minimum wage. Having Marisnick in center will allow Domingo Santana to play RF, where he’s better suited. Chris Denorfia was brought in on an NRI to offer additional outfield depth.
Jean Segura is not a starting MLB quality SS. He had a strong first half back in 2013. But from July 1 to the end of 2013, he had a .613 OPS. In 2014 he had a .614 OPS. In 2015 he had a .616 OPS. This is who he is. On top of that disappointing production, Segura was arbitration-eligible. He was shipped to Tampa for former top pick Tim Beckham, saving $2.7 million.
Beckham will get the short side of a platoon at 2B with Gennett, who lifetime has a .297 OPS versus lefties. Gennett has a lifetime .796 OPS versus RHB while Beckham has a .733 mark against lefties. He’ll also get a chance to play some shortstop. Reluctantly, Luis Sardinas is penciled in as the Opening Day starter, though he did next to nothing to earn that spot. But with Arcia just about ready to step in, it made little sense to pay anything to bring in an upgrade. Clint Barmes was signed to an NRI to compete for the job in Spring Training.
Free agency was a tough thing to handle, knowing the payroll was there to bring in some big names but trying to do the realistic thing. Bids were placed on numerous players but were easily trumped. Ben Zobrist was signed for $13 million and he will take over at 3B. Kelly Johnson was also added to be a backup in both the infield and outfield at a very reasonable $2 million.
The remaining addition to the team was Danny Duffy, who was non-tendered by the Royals. For $5 million, Duffy gives the rotation a LH pitcher with 80 starts in the majors under his belt. He may ultimately wind up as a reliever, but he throws hard and if he can harness his control he could take a big step forward.
All of the arbitration guys were brought back, with the exception of Cesar Jimenez. He pitched well after coming over from the Phillies but nothing to pay a premium for when the system could easily fill out a seven-man bullpen. Joe Nathan was brought in on an NRI to challenge for a bullpen spot.
This Brewers’ team is not very sexy but there’s really only one spot in the lineup that is a sinkhole and the hope is that at some point during the season that top prospect Arcia takes over and solidifies SS. It’s a decent middle of the order with Lucroy, Adam Lind, Khris Davis and Zobrist. The platoon at 2B should provide above-average production, Santana showed good promise with a .766 OPS as a 22 year old and Marisnick has a chance to be a league average CF.
If the team is to surprise, it will have to be with its pitching. Jimmy Nelson took a step forward in his second season and Taylor Jungmann had a surprising rookie year. The Brewers need both of those guys to improve, while hoping that Wily Peralta and Matt Garza can bounce back to 2014 form. Francisco Rodriguez gives them a solid closer and the rest of the bullpen has no obvious weakness.
But this is a team that is clearly pointing to the future
| 2016 Milwaukee Brewers | Payroll | NRIs | Top Prospects |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucroy | $4,350,000.00 | Barmes | Arcia |
| Maldonado | $1,125,000.00 | Denorfia | Reed |
| Lind | $8,000,000.00 | Nathan | Appel |
| Gennett | $525,000.00 | J. Lopez | |
| Zobrist | $13,000,000.00 | Phillips | |
| Beckham | $525,000.00 | Clark | |
| J. Rogers | $510,000.00 | Taylor | |
| Sardinas | $510,000.00 | Williams | |
| K. Davis | $550,000.00 | Lara | |
| D. Santana | $510,000.00 | Coulter | |
| J. Marisnick | $525,000.00 | ||
| L. Shafer | $525,000.00 | ||
| K. Johnson | $2,000,000.00 | ||
| J. Nelson | $525,000.00 | ||
| Jungmann | $525,000.00 | ||
| W. Peralta | $2,800,000.00 | ||
| Garza | $12,500,000.00 | ||
| D. Duffy | $5,000,000.00 | ||
| F. Rodriguez | $7,500,000.00 | ||
| W. Smith | $1,200,000.00 | ||
| Jeffress | $525,000.00 | ||
| Knebel | $515,000.00 | ||
| Thornburg | $525,000.00 | ||
| Davies | $515,000.00 | ||
| Blazek | $515,000.00 | ||
| $65,300,000.00 |
I respect the moves made for the future of the club but think that more could have been done to improve the club with the remaining money.
It all depends on how much money you think should be spent.
I could have spent $111.5 million by the rules of the project but I don’t think that’s realistic. I had somewhere between $45 and $50 million available at the start and then when I got rid of $15 million with Braun and $2.7 with Segura, I could have spent around $65 million and been justified.
But the Brewers’ Opening Day payroll last year was the highest in team history and there’s no reason to think it should go up from there, especially given the in-season cost cutting that went on.
But let’s take it position by position.
C – Lucroy is signed at a great deal, so no point in upgrading
1B – Lind has a team-favorable option for 2016 and I got one of the top 1B prospects in baseball to take over in 2017
2B – For essentially minimum wage, I’ve got a platoon that will give above-average production (NL average 2B last year .703 OPS while this one should provide around a .760 mark) and provide a backup SS
3B – I spent money here on a Free Agent
SS – I’ve got a top 10 MLB prospect ready to step in once he clears Super 2 status
OF – Davis is a no-brainer starter and Solano did great for a guy so young last year. There was one position here and I filled it cheaply. But what were my alternatives? Realistically not in the Cespedes race and how much better were the Spans or Rasmuses of the world, especially once you factor in salary? I don’t think you can justify paying 20X more for Span when he’ll be 32 next year and coming off a hip injury and was limited to 60 something games last year.
Bullpen – Had seven guys who were all average or better and cut ties to a solid guy because I could. No upgrade needed here as this is a surprisingly good pen.
SP – This is the one area I could have upgraded. I put in bids on all of the top guys and got outbid because I couldn’t justify sinking $20 million plus that it would take to get them.
I had the payroll to add both Price and Greinke (or any two of the top pitchers) and had an offer to trade Jimmy Nelson for a top prospect. I could have gone that way but chose not to.
To me there were two choices
1. Play by the rules, max out payroll and field the best possible team
2. Continue the rebuild
I think the worse thing would have been to overpay and get a slightly better CF and a slightly better SP#5, which is seemingly what you wanted me to do. At the end of the day, the division has three teams that made the playoffs. The Brewers weren’t going to jump into that class by signing Span and Kazmir.
I think offering to take on the contract of Niese would have made sense. Not offering a player just sorta absorbing the money.
I could probably stretch for a few more.
Overall, I give you good marks, but that is a lot of money to leave on the table.
I did have very preliminary discussions with the Mets about both Niese and Tejada. I was still throwing offers to pitchers so I wasn’t prepared to win one of those and get Niese, too. If I hadn’t gotten Duffy, I would have re-visited Niese, because I did want a lefty, if possible, to round out the rotation.
At the end of the day, I don’t believe that Niese at $9 million coming off a 0.9 fWAR is a significant upgrade over Duffy at $5 million and coming off a 1.2 fWAR season. Especially with Duffy being two years younger and likely healthier, too.
You showed remarkable restraint and integrity in not going on an FA shopping spree. Sad that this team and the Reds were both pretty good and not far off a few years ago but were forced to blow up their teams due to division competiton and financial limitations.
Loved the Duffy move and wanted the real Mets to go for him last year. Can’t believe a young hard throwing lefty would be cast off by the Royals due to injuries because he has great stuff.
Don’t know about Zobrist playing 3B, and along with Duffy this team can use a Niese or a lesser lefty to balance out the rotation. Loved the Astros trade.
Lucroy used to play some first base; think he could have been tried at third? I realize it would have hurt his trade value if they wanted to trade him mid-season, however…
This past year, Zobrist played 2B, LF, RF and 3B. He also played 31 games at SS in 2014. I was outbid on Murphy for 3B and this was Plan B. I feel good about it.
The Brewers are pretty much locked into 4 SP — Nelson, Jungmann, Peralta and Garza. The first two were pretty good last year, Peralta won 17 games in 2014 and Garza was their big FA signing a year ago. Unless I looked to move one of them, there was really only room for 1 SP. Moving Garza, especially how his 2015 ended would have been fine but who would have given up anything worthwhile for him? Trading Peralta now would be the definition of selling low. Jungmann and Nelson could have been dealt, but those are the types of guys the Brewers should be acquiring, not ditching. In my mind, trading either of those pre-arb guys for guys in the minors and then having to replace them with more expensive guys in the rotation in 2016 would have been, at best, running to stand still.
I like having Lucroy behind the plate and while it’s fine to spot him elsewhere to give him a break from catching, the hope is he’s the starting catcher for 130 or so games.
Sounds good. Still afraid Murphy will wind up on the Nationals in real life, but hoping Angels outbid them.