Next up in our projection series is David Wright. All of us were thrilled that Wright made it back to the playoffs with the Mets. Unfortunately his season was marred by injury, one that left most of us wondering if he’d be able to continue playing at a high level. But before we get to that, take a moment to review our original prediction piece on him from the beginning of 2015. Here was our group forecast:
PA – 605
AVG – .287
OBP – .380
SLG – .490
HR – 20
RBI – 90
DL – No
Here’s how Wright actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group.
PA – 174
Best – Vasile (550)
Worst – Koehler (650)
AVG – .289
Best – Albanesius, Hangley (.287), McCarthy (.291)
Worst – Vasile (.308)
OBP – .379
Best – Albanesius (.380)
Worst – Ferguson (.350)
SLG – .434
Best – Netter (.430)
Worst – Singer (.523)
HR – 5
Best – Koehler (14)
Worst – Joura (24)
RBIs – 17
Best – Koehler (70)
Worst – Joura (107)
It’s a little surprising that no one predicted a huge DL stint for Wright and only three people thought he’d spend any time at all on the disabled list. And this is one of the reasons why we make predictions. No, not to make fun of ourselves nine months later but rather to get an honest glimpse of preseason expectations. We didn’t think Wright would be a threat to win the MVP. But clearly we thought he was going to be a key contributor for the majority of the season.
There’s not much point diving into individual forecasts and only slightly more reason to look at the group forecast. Looking at the big boys, both Steamer and ZiPS were more pessimistic about Wright, even though both systems also thought he would top 550 PA. Our group OPS forecast was for an .870 mark, while Steamer (.779) and ZiPS (.768) were much more bearish. Wright, in his brief playing time, landed in the middle with an .814 mark.
There’s little doubt that we will not be as optimistic about Wright in 2016 as we were this year. The frequent off days in the playoffs allowed Wright to play in every game. But he performed poorly in two of the three series and overall he slashed .185/.313/.278 in 64 PA in the postseason.
Will Terry Collins be able to walk the line with Wright, giving him the off days he needs? He did a solid job of that down the stretch in 2015. Perhaps the more important question is who the Mets will carry on their roster to give Wright the necessary days off. If only there was a guy out there who could provide a backup for Wright, protection against Dilson Herrera not being ready and, as long as we’re wishing, maybe give some time off for Lucas Duda at first base, too.
That guy to help as back up to David Wright at 3rd, Herrera at 2b and Duda at 1b ?
We all know who ideally that would be…his name is Murphy.
However, the cat has gotten too good and too expensive to be a role player. He will probably be gone, sadly, but that is today’s ba$eball.
The next man up for that same job is Kelly Johnson. Hope the Mets at least use him as the fall back plan when Murph leaves
Uribe too would be nice, but that is dreaming.
Wilpons won’t spend like $10m for both to be on the bench, especially when you have “Cuddy- Cadaver” sitting there for a whopping $12m ! Ouch. That was easily Sandy’s worst move, and to think it cost a draft pick too, double ouch !!
I think that predicting injuries is pure guesswork, and falls below the quality of meaningful predictions you guys make here. I get why you include counting numbers, but I’m much more interested in the rate stats.
Yes, Wright hit .185 in 64 ABs in the postseason. And also: 20 strikeouts.
Twenty! From our #2 hitter!
I think he’s an albatross. It’s all very tragic and sad, but they guy can’t throw overhand any more. It’s over except for the slow, painful, sorry slide.
I have a few hopes:
1) The Mets have a very strong Plan B in place at the start of the season;
2) That David Wright retires as quickly as possible;
3) That the organization has the strength to do what’s right for the team, rather than go 3 months with Wright in the 2-spot, showing glimpses here and there, but largely failing. I don’t know that TC can do this; he’s going to need a strong directive from the top.
All the plans I read about the Mets offseason, whether from Sherman or anyone else, focuses on the bullpen, SS, CF, the bench. Nobody wants to talk about 3B — and a weak farm system that has young pitching to trade or any 3B on the horizon, near or distant.
If the health and productivity of David Wright is a key to the 2016 season, it’s going to be a bumpy (and heart-rending) ride.
Strikeouts have always been an important indicator for Wright and his performance in that category during the playoffs was abysmal. FWIW, he had 54 ABs and 64 PAs in the postseason.
James, you are right on. Wright can no longer play 3B, and with an ailing bat, one needs to wonder what a change of scenery would bring him. I dont mean asking him about a trade, I mean asking him to develop a platoon with Duda, so that his change of scenery is which side of the diamond the ball comes in. He cannot throw any more. His arm slot make him a submariner now. His throws are inaccurate. His defense is costing us games. without doubt, Uribe is a better third baseman at this point. Given the legit post season aspirations we now have for the next few years, Wright needs to recognize he needs to change the plans. I could see him getting 400 ABs platooning first and third.
As for Murphy. I wish we would stop talking about him as a third baseman. He does not have the glove, nor the arm, to play there regularly. His footwork is painfully slow, and apparently necessary for him to make any kind of throw, which is late or off target, and places a huge responsibility on Duda to be a acrobat to catch him. Its easy to miss Murphys bat and nothing else, unless we sign Zobrist.
My off season plan would be to sign Zobrist, Parra, and O’day/Soria. Id extend Reed, but drop Clippard. We would have won the WS were it not for the bull pen. And that with Murphy, Ces and Wright practically MIA.
Chris F, that’s the Sherman Plan, I believe, and seems fairly reasonable.
I gather you are willing to sit tight at SS?
Stepping way back for a moment, and looking at the marketplace, I see a glut of pitchers available via free agency this year. Never has it been easier or cheaper to acquire a #5 guy. And never has it been harder to acquire a bat.
Just looking at market inefficiences — which is the lesson behind “Moneyball,” after all — I have to wonder if the Mets shouldn’t take a long, hard look at trading Matz. I couldn’t pull that trigger in a vacuum, but if you can make a real deal for an everyday player, I think it would help the club in the short-term. Again, I’m not at all advocating. I just recognize that finding a good #5 guy at a low cost is not that hard these days. A real SS, on the other hand . . .
This may be an issue of timing, and might depend upon Wheeler demonstrating full health.
Chris F, You hit the nail right on the head. Sign Zobrist,Parra and O’Day or Soria. No draft picks lost, and it leaves some room to sign a big bat during the middle of the season when teams are dumping salaries and you would have a clearer picture what you needs are(player not performing or injury).
Rats. I meant to say a “weak farm system that has no young pitching to trade.”
Oops.
He was still pretty good when he returned in the regular season. And is one of the few on the team capable of a good OBP. I think he’s a good fit for the 2nd spot for now. His postseason was rough but so was that of a lot of others. Cespedes was bad (and bad numbers are even propped up a bit by 4 infield hits) and he’s slotted to get 100 mil + this offseason. TDA was lousy. Duda struck out a ton. If we judge everyone by their postseason the Mets are screwed at a lot of positions next yr except for RF.
Granted the regular season was also a small sample for Wright, but he did at least show some capability then. It remains to be seen how that will hold up over the course of a full season (or if he can even make it thru a full season) but I’d gladly take something close to the 133 wRC+ he posted in the regular season from anyone and everyone on our roster.
I appreciate the level-headed thinking here.
You may be right about Wright being finished. Aside from the strikeouts, that throwing motion was just painful to watch.
But the Mets do have a few interesting prospects on the way who play third base; they just happen to be farther away than 2016. Eudor Garcia hit 9 home runs in his age 21 season in Savannah, which might be, not certain, the most any lefthander has hit there during the time the Mets played there. Jhoan Urena spent the season nursing a wrist injury in St Lucie, but he is highly regarded. And it would not shock me to see Rosario moved at some point.
The cupboard is not stocked for tomorrow’s lunch, but neither is it bare.
The 2015 projection was too bullish for Wright regarding OPS and his around 800 OPS should be expected in 2016. That would rank him 5th best in the NL. If Wright had 605 PA’s then he would have also fallen short with only 17 home runs based on his limited 2015 year. I have read (forgot the source) that Wright should not play more than 4 days in a row so it should not be expected that he ever gets 500 PA,s again in a season.
The easy answer of who to carry on the roster is Kelly Johnson. The more expensive alternative is Ben Zobrist (MLBTR 3/51 estimate) or Daniel Murphy (MLBTR 4/56).. The other alternative is to initiate trade talks involving Harvey in a package for Bogaerts and Bradley and solve two positions needs and use Flores when Wright needs a back up.
I would be thrilled if David could field his position, get 500 ABs, and contribute an OPS of .800.
I don’t think he breaks an OPS of .700, and the defense won’t be there. He will walk some, thanks — in part — to a low contact rate. He has trouble squaring up anything.
Let’s hope I’m wrong. Let’s hope he figures it out. Maybe he can lift less weight, come back more limber and flexible, lighter even. More of a yoga body than the thick, weight-lifter’s body he’s developed over the years. But my take is that David Wright is gone forever. And to be clear, I’m not bashing on the man. I have a lot of respect and affection for him.
You know what it is? Have you ever coached youth Little League? The little guys, ages 8-9, going up to the plate with a big bat their clueless dad bought? I look at Wright and think the same thing: “Son, is your bat too heavy? I think your bat is too heavy . . .”
You hand them a lighter one and zing! They can suddenly hit.
David’s dragging it through the zone. I thought his postseason performance in the 2-hole did a lot to stagnate the offense, though there was much blame to go around.
Let’s cut the captain a little slack. Let’s see how he does after an offseason of rest and strengthening and a spring training of adjustments.
Even if he bounces back he strikes out too much and no longer has the foot speed to bat second or third. He also lacks the power to bat 3-5. I could see d’Arnaud or Conforto moving up in the lineup.
Right now many of our highest paid players are our least productive.
Certainly, the decision makers see what we see, Wright is struggling at third if he plays regularly. They have Flores precisely for that, but Flores needs to fix his swing. If he doesn’t make any changes this winter, he needs to be shopped.
Wright can hit an occasional long one, he is an excellent leader, but for sure the defensive aspect is the real tell-tale sign: He isn’t what he used to be. I would be surprised to see him play 9 innings more than 115 times. That’s roughly two off days a week, if, he’s “healthy” all year. Don’t sell a warrior short, they find a way.
Wright is going to be almost impossible to attempt to project next season. This whole situation makes me sad. I’m glad, at the very least, that he got to play in the WS at least once in his career.