Last week I wrote that the Mets should open the coffers and sign Jason Heyward. The reasons are outlined in that article, but what was left unstated was that it should not be the only significant signing the Mets should make. Significant in this case doesn’t mean tons of money but simply players that would shore up some additional weaknesses and not just non-roster invitees like Ty Kelly.
The main argument against the signing of Heyward is the money he will command. It’s an obvious, glaring concern and one with merit. The two aspects of this are whether he is worth it (he is) and whether or not the Mets can afford it based on their perceived budget (apparently not). What also went unstated was an assumed (perhaps naively) not-insignificant-increase in payroll.
A “not insignificant” increase in payroll doesn’t appear to be in the cards, it seems, as even the most optimistic projections barely put the team over $110 million for 2016. General Manager Sandy Alderson said that he “hopes” that the 2016 payroll will be higher than the roughly $103 million it was at to open the 2015 season. That is concerning, especially considering that their current roster is already at roughly $92 million.
It’s still early, obviously, but most of the reporters and writers covering the team get the feeling that they’ll go the route of slight upgrades rather than any significant additions. As such, most of the offseason predictions have the team spreading a limited budget on several complimentary or platoon players like Denard Span, Dexter Fowler, and Gerardo Parra. That’s all fine and good, but is that going to be enough?
There are several assumptions about the 2016 roster that fans and some pundits are making, such as the following:
- Michael Conforto will come out blazing in 2016 without struggling against adjustments to him
- Dilson Herrera, for all of his huge upside, will somehow immediately play above the .215/.308/.311 slash he’s put up in his very limited major league time so far
- Travis d’Arnaud will stay healthy
- David Wright will stay healthy and be any good
- Curtis Granderson will come anywhere close to his 2015 again
- Juan Lagares will regain some of his 2014 form on both sides of the ball
The Mets summer 2015 run was fantastic, but how quickly we forget just how bad the offense was before the deadline. Here’s a refresher: it was historically bad. Now, we need to be honest and acknowledge that the offensive struggles had a whole lot to do with a lack of depth when the injuries hit. The bench was abysmal, but this is a mistake that the team will probably not make again this year. You hedge a lot of that infield concern by signing someone like Ben Zobrist, whom everybody and their mother is interested in signing for a lot of money.
However, and even with all of their ducks in a row heading into the World Series, the team’s offense did little against a rotation and bullpen that shut them down. Sure, the Mets defense and bullpen had a major hand in the carnage, but even Alderson acknowledged that a better offensive performance mitigates the total meltdown we witnessed.
This isn’t advocating spending recklessly like the team did at the end of the Omar Minaya regime. It’s advocating taking the necessary steps to ensure the team doesn’t let the best rotation in baseball go to waste by being cheap. There are several questions to ponder beyond the assumptions addressed in the list above.
Who takes over in right field when Granderson is gone? Are we projecting Brandon Nimmo to be the heir apparent? Is that wise? What happens if Wright can’t play regularly ever again? Is Wilmer Flores now the starting third baseman? Who takes over at shortstop, Ruben Tejada? What happens if he was non-tendered this offseason?
The mistake is assuming the team will definitely be fine with a few tweaks here and there. Do you feel warm and fuzzy with the lineup with just a few tweaks? Things could easily fall apart in 2016 and fans don’t seem to want to admit it. The rotation, if it remains healthy, could very well propel the Mets into the postseason again. It sure didn’t look that way in July, though, did it?
The 2015 free agent class is very, very deep. It’s much deeper than it will be in the next few years and the team could pay a premium for elite free agents now. The other option is to hold to the many assumptions listed above and hope for the best. In that case, if those assumptions prove wrong and the team is forced to turn to future free agents, they will be paying the same premium for lesser players. Would you rather pay a 26-year-old Heyward $180 million or a 30-year-old Jay Bruce $150 million? Perhaps worse, they may be forced to again pay a premium in prospects at the deadline rather than just spending money. That’s obviously not a sustainable strategy year in and year out.
Again, it’s still early and this front office has been great at playing things close to the vest. Don’t be surprised if they spend a lot. Don’t be surprised if they spend little. At least they keep it interesting. Still, the team has frequently stated that if fans want the team to spend money we need to show up. Well, throughout the second half of 2015 and the postseason we did just that and with a vengeance. The team projects higher ticket sales in 2016, as it should, as fans will pack the house for a competitive team.
Your move, Mets.
Rob, love the article. Although you didn’t include trade, the Mets may have some talent to deal for say Yasiel Puig? Would you give the win now Dodgers, Granny, Niese, and Plawecki for Puig? I would.
Also, I would love Heyward, but have to give thought to maybe his potential not being reached. Players now peak at 26, which means that the Heyward we got last year maybe the best he gets and he does have an injury history…
Thanks, Gus! I didn’t include trades for two reasons. First, and the main reason, is that it’s tough to even come up with logical trades that are realistic. If you do, chances are the team isn’t even in the same book as you, let alone the same page. Second, it would be better to spend money rather than prospects when you can help it and it makes sense, at least to me. Sure, if that contract ends up not working out, you’ve blown money and not the top prospects it would take to land an impact bat under control. Of course that doesn’t excuse reckless spending.
That being said, if there’s something realistic that makes sense then I’d definitely be in favor of a trade. Your trade idea is very interesting. I’d be hesitant to deal the team’s most productive position player for one that has so many question marks. Still, he’s young, already put up some great years, and under a great contract through 2018. I’d consider it, but I’m not sure that package gets it done for LA.
I also believe that talent is hard to find, but the Mets would rather give up talent than money. Granny is the leadoff hitter the Dodgers need in order to win now. They have been in win now mode for two years. I think they would like the now and later value they receive for a player they want to move. The fact that he barely played in October spoke volumes.
Gus, seriously, re read what you wrote. Granderson Plaw and Niese for a guy who’s a complete nightmare and a clubhouse disaster?
That is such a grotesque overpay that I can barely comprehend it. The Dodgers might have done it at Niese and a pitching prospect.
Chris, I don’t know…
Puig is still a young, talented player that is cheap and under contract; many teams will be in line. When trading, always look at what the other team needs. They need a leadoff hitter who plays RF and they need a pitcher; the inclusion of Plawecki could easily be a reliever instead, like Robles (although I would prefer to keep Robles, it wouldn’t be a deal breaker). Either way, Granny is gone in 2 years, and so is Niese. Puig is young, under contract for three more years at a very good price, and Plawecki is not going to overtake d’Arnaud. This would be a tremendous deal for the Mets at very little sacrifice (not to mention the $avings), if it happened in the real world, but we are just trying to play GM here.
Puig is still a Dodger because they cant get rid of him. Hes talented, but benched regularly for attitude and bad play issues. Hes a free swinger who swings at absolutely anything. Now that hes been figured out, hes frustrated beyond words, and doing poorly in response. He throws to the wrong base. He has zero discipline. And you want to trade our MVP from this year and the only lead-off guy we have. Puig flies against every characteristic of this team both inside and outside the lines. Im sorry, but not in a million years would I lose Grandy for Puig, let alone a potential MLB catcher and a decent back end starter. Like I said, that deal is so grotesquely overpriced the Dodgers would announce the press conference before the ink was dry.
Excerpted from an article by Jeff Passan at Yahoo Sports from earlier this season:
“Inside the Los Angeles Dodgers’ clubhouse, the contempt some teammates hold for outfielder Yasiel Puig is no longer a secret limited to whispers. They discuss it openly, resigned to the fact that the Dodgers don’t plan to trade their mega-talented right fielder no matter how deep the animus runs.
“We’ve talked about this,” one Dodgers player told Yahoo Sports. “At this point, it would be addition by subtraction.”
Stories of Puig’s ability to infuriate teammates have percolated through baseball since he shot to fame as a rookie in 2013 and cemented himself last season as one of baseball’s greatest talents. Now, in “The Best Team Money Can Buy,” a fascinating new book that explores the inner workings of the Dodgers’ clubhouse, author Molly Knight delivers anecdote after Puig anecdote that illuminates what makes him so off-putting to so many.”
Chris, I had never heard the things you brought up. I mostly heard the late to meetings stuff. Thank you, and I retract my idea.
Need to package Niese in a deal (Toronto?) and trade Cuddyer to an AL team where he can DH and play first base. If you have to eat 25-50% then so be it. Brings down the payroll to about 45 million as per Cot’s (before Arb hearings). Also having two incomplete players in Tejada and Flores playing SS doesn’t help matters. Same issues as 2014 off season. I somehow don’t think Alderson will get “lucky” next season at the trading deadline.
This great run that we went on masked the fact that the wilpons still dont have the funds to have a ny appropriate payroll (140-150 mill) if the gm chose to spend that much. We will be outbid for zobrist and o’day. 84-78 in 2016
Nobody is trading for Michael Cuddyer.
He will either get healthy — and recover some of his past form — or stay the same, a broken-down old player, and eventually be cut.
If any team has the remotest interest in Cuddyer, they can scan the waiver wire in July.
+1
Hes a 12M$ player-coach. TIme to accept it and move on. He’s Wrights buddy. He aint going anywhere.
James you can thank Alderson for what is probably his worst signing. At least Colon provided the team with some plus pitching performances. The Met’s are going to pay 12 million for a fourth outfielder who will occasionally spell Duda at first and DH when the Met’s visit an AL team next season. And that’s when he isn’t on the DL! Painful enough and then you add forfeiting the 11 pick in the draft and it just leaves you shaking your head in disbelief.
I think you’re forgetting how deep the infield prospects are for this team. A bit of seasoning for Gavin Cecchini in AAA will immediately make him a viable candidate for shortstop if someone goes down or struggles. Matt Reynolds, TJ Rivera, L.J Mazzilli, Danny Muno (Ugh), and Jeff McNeil will all probably be ready to go by September with Amed Rosario, Luis Guillorme, and Luis Carpio all ready to go within the next two to three years.
In regards to the outfield offense, I don’t think it’s outlandish to think that Granderson can produce a .250/.340/.430 slash line next season- especially considering the incredible adjustments he made in the second half.
Nimmo is practically Granderson ten years ago with less power, so it will be nice if Granderson shows the Wyoming native the ways of being a successful leadoff hitter.
In regards to Conforto, there might be some struggles. There’s no doubt that Sophomore slumps are a thing. But if there were to be a hitter that overcame that type of struggle, it would be Conforto and his excellent strike zone recognition.
Lagares is a whole different animal. Apparently he was handicapped this season because he needed surgery, but now he doesn’t need surgery? As if I should be surprised that the Mets medical staff pulled this stunt…. In any event, it certainly wouldn’t hurt to sign Denard Span to one-year deal to “platoon” Lagares.
I don’t think that the offense will be a problem as it was last year- if the proper moves are made. A return of Kelly Johnson, an appearance of Denard Span, and maybe (just maybe) Michael Cuddyer doesn’t completely stink- that’s probably asking too much.
The problem with prospects is that they tend to let you down. We’ve be spoiled with top shelf prospects like Harvey, Syndergaard, and Conforto coming up and immediately making an impact and showing they’re the “real thing.”
Banking on any of those prospects panning out as a plan moving forward is incredibly risky IMO. I certainly hope they pan out, but chances are most of them won’t and I think the team has to move forward with that mindset.
Rob, this is very interesting and good article that is thought provoking.
The Mets went on to win the pennant when Cespedes took over Lagares spot, Reed and Clippard gave them a bridge to Familia, TDA got healthy and replaced Plawecki, Uribe and Johnson filled in for Wright who also cae back healthy and Cuddyer had a strong August.
Money is a problem for the Mets and for that reason I’ll avoid the expensive fixes and tailor my response to the $112m type payroll.
Lagares is good against LHP so go for Span at 3/36 MLBTR and second choice Parra 3/27.
Matz is taking Colon’s rotation spot and Wheeler will be back mid summer.
Tender Reed, who is also included in payroll and add LHP Tony Sipp (3/12 MLBTR)
Sign Kelly Johnson as a LHB to be insurance for Herrera and Wright. My guess 2/5.
They are stuck with Cuddyer but to be fair he played injured in the end and had surgery. He is the RHB to spell LF, RF and 1B.
The SS FA market is not good enough to spend a large sum of money on so keep biding time with Flojada. Eventually they might have to entertain trading one of their five studs for a highly regarded young cost controlled SS.
This isn’t exciting moves but reasonable and affordable enough to keep them in the race until the trade deadline. At that point, Alderson has proven he could retool similar to 2015 where he traded players that were blocked from playing for the Mets in the near future for established quality players for the 2016 pennant drive.
Thanks, Metsense! Piecing together a mediocre offense again seems like a risky proposition. I mean, it’s most likely the way the team is going to go, but they need to be sure that the players they sign will be worth it. Retooling at the deadline again, and giving up more prospects, doesn’t really seem like a sustainable strategy and chances are they won’t be having another Cespedes fall in their laps.
We’ll just have to wait and see the route they end up going. Maybe they’ll surprise us all with an out of nowhere trade like Gus mentioned above. Who knows?
Rob. I too avoided discussing trades for the exact reasons you stated in your response to Gus’ initial comment. Trades are probably the best way to strengthen the weaker positions and probably the most affordable. My gut reaction is that Alderson will make a significant one this winter.
PS: sorry we missed each other in Baltimore, it would have been some very interesting discussions. Maybe next time.
Yeah too bad we couldn’t make it work out. Definitely next time, though!
The Mets made great strides this year but as history has showed us they tend to decline in the following year. With attendance greatly increased they must up their payroll to stay competitive to build up their fan base. They owe it to us all to pick up some big pieces and stake a claim on the division. Otherwise we will be watching the coattails of Dusty Baker and the Nats all year.
You make excellent points. Front office needs to he very smart. I think the pitching alone will keep us competitive, particularly with the lefties Blevin and Edgin back in the pen plus another strong righty free agent. It’s hard to figure what position to address. I like the idea of adding a proven, consistent bat that can ply a few different positions (zobrist, murphy) and then reassess come july to see if wee need to make another move. I don’t like the idea of hamstringing our payroll with the type of contract it would take to land Heyward or Upton. Nice players, but they’re not going to transform a lineup like a prime Pujols, Cabrera, Ramirez or Bonds.