Next up in our projection series is Curtis Granderson. The Mets’ big free agent signing prior to the 2014 season, Granderson was a disappointment in the first year of his four-year contract. But Granderson was actually pretty good for two-thirds of the year. He had a miserable April and August wasn’t much better. So, check in on our original piece to see what we thought coming into the year. Here was our group forecast:
PA – 615
AVG – .239
OBP – .330
SLG – .415
HR – 23
RBI – 74
BABIP – .275
Here’s how Granderson actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group.
PA – 682
Best – Rogan (660)
Worst – Kolton (496)
AVG – .259
Best – Netter (.268)
Worst – Koehler, Newman (.225)
OBP – .364
Best – Newman (.350)
Worst – Kolton (.298)
SLG – .457
Best – Rogan (.450)
Worst – Kolton (.335)
HR – 26
Best – Vasile (26)
Worst – Kolton (8)
RBIs – 70
Best – Koheler, Rogan (70)
Worst – Kolton (42)
BABIP – .305
Best – Newman (.295), Ferguson (.315)
Worst – Kolton (.251)
Granderson was significantly better than our group forecast. He stayed healthy, hit leadoff and has a case for the team’s MVP. Given that, it’s a little surprising how well we did with our individual forecasts. And our group forecast was at least as good as the big boys. While our playing time projection came up short, it was better than both ZiPS and Steamer’s.
Right now the interesting thing to me about forecasting Granderson for 2016 is if he’ll be utilized as a leadoff man again next year. It seems unlikely that the Mets will pay the price to retain Yoenis Cespedes yet they still seem eager to import a CF. Will this new guy be the stereotypical leadoff man that allows Granderson to bat lower in the order? If nothing else, batting lower in the lineup should impact his RBI totals.
And there’s also the little matter of age-related decline. Given that, it’s unlikely that the group will be in lock-step over Granderson in 2016. Here’s hoping for another .800 OPS season.
MVP
Granderson was the MVP this year. He is one of the reasons that the Mets made it to the World Series. He more than earned his salary this year and the second on the team in home runs. He ended the season with an 129 OPS+ . Last year he had a similar OPS+ as Jason Bay had in his first Met year. No one can compare Grand-y to Bay again. He was very comfortable in the leadoff spot and I think TC deserves credit for keeping him there in spite of criticism.
+1
Granderson had a great year and probably one of the top reasons that the Mets made it to the World Series. On one hand, I would explore trading him. While it makes me feel ungrateful, truth is he is 35 and may be used as a piece to improve.
On the other hand, he is a great example for our younger players and still productive, hence if we aren’t happy, there isn’t an urgency to move him. Maybe to Texas in a deal to get Profar, maybe to Seattle to get something, maybe to the Dodgers who need his skill set.
It would have to be worth it, but with Herrera to become the leadoff hitter, Nimmo in AAA, and honestly I just can’t expect him to repeat and since we know older players are more susceptible to injury…
I repeat: If the trade doesn’t improve our team, he should be kept. Granderson is still productive.
Your desire to dump Grandy amazes me Gus. We finally get leadoff sorted out by a professional hitter with great OBP, gives nothing but quality ABs, still has pop, and is comfortable navigating RF in CitiField. By all measures hes an 80/80 clubhouse guy. Grandy is in fantastic shape and aside from the season with the broken hand, hes played full seasons, as a Met, thats 155 and 157 games. Im bullish on him. We all know the move to a new team, and particularly to a new league leads to huge drops in production. On top of that, hes now solved leadoff and clearly responding to Long’s addition.
I think its worth noting that Herrera is not a vetted second baseman at the big league level. We have no reason to expect he would/could slot in at lead off on the defending NL Champions team. In short hes a completely unknown quantity at the MLB level. Well, not completely, I suppose. His 50 games as a Met are not much to brag about. I think there is great upside, but dropping this guy in as a starting middle infielder and batting leadoff is a massive mistake. Then we have Nimmo, who is even less of a known quantity.
I think its worth remembering our power arm arsenal starts to sunset in 3 years. I have zero interest in bringing up unknown quantities as experiments to have them learn positions while we have the present rotation. I want serious major league talent in as many positions as possible. A middle infield of Flores and Herrera with TdA at catcher and Nimmo in the OF is a guarantee of a losing season. None of these guys in the pipeline are Correra or Lindor or Harper or Trout.
Sorry to be such a downer on your recent comments. I really am flabbergasted.