Prior to last year, Zack Wheeler was thought of as an essential part of the Mets’ future. The hard-throwing, 4-pitch righty has as much #1 potential as the 2015 stalwarts who pitched us into the World Series. While Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz dominated on the mound and the back pages of our newspapers, Wheeler was out of sight, out of mind, rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. It seems in that time that we’ve all forgotten how good this kid is and how much potential he has. We nearly traded him away over the summer and now there is a ton of chatter about moving him. Here’s a bit of a refresher on #45.
At the 2011 July trade deadline, with the Mets clearly out of contention, General Manager Sandy Alderson pulled the trigger on a big trade, sending all-star outfielder Carlos Beltran to the pitching rich San Francisco Giants for their top prospect. At the time, Wheeler was 21 years old had been pitching for the Giant’s advanced single A squad to the tune of a7-5 record 3.99 ERA. What put him on the Mets’ radar was his 98 strikeouts in 88 innings. For the remainder of the season, Wheeler joined the St. Lucie Mets where he proceeded to dominate the competition with a sparkling 2.00 ERA in 27 innings.
Prior to the 2012 season, Wheeler was named the Mets’ top prospect and the 21st best in baseball by Baseball America. The organization promoted him to AA Binghamton where Wheeler didn’t miss a beat, going 7-3 with a 2.29 ERA and pitching in both the Eastern League All-Star Game and the All-Star Futures Game before being promoted to AAA Buffalo Bisons on August 1. Wheeler continued pitching well before reaching his innings limit and finished the year going 12-8 with a 3.26 ERA and 148 strikeout between AA and AAA.
Wheeler began the 2013 season in AAA, with the new Mets’ affiliate Las Vegas 51s, presumably to delay his eventual arbitration eligibility. At this point he was rated by Baseball Prospectus as the #5 prospect in baseball. He made his big league debut June 18 and threw six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts on the road against the Atlanta Braves. Wheeler finished his rookie season going 7-5 with a 3.42 ERA in 17 starts.
He got off to a little bit of a rocky start in 2014, struggling to keep his walks under control, but hit his stride by the end of June and finished his sophomore season at 11-11 with a 3.54 ERA and 187 strikeouts in 32 starts.
As they prepared for the 2015 season, the Mets front office and coaches had Wheeler penciled in as one of the top three starters, along with the rehabbed Harvey and Rookie of the Year winner deGrom. Then in spring training, it was announced that Wheeler had a torn ulnar collateral ligament that would require Tommy John surgery and a year of rehab. Wheeler would not pitch in 2015.
In addition to the torn ligament, it was also discovered that Wheeler had a partially torn tendon and a calcium deposit that needed to be removed. All three problems were addressed during the surgical procedure. During his rehab, Wheeler admitted that these problems had plagued him for years and that he had been pitching through elbow discomfort dating back to high school.
In addition to being a source of pain, it has been speculated that the elbow issues may have contributed to Wheeler’s control problems. The one thing that has held him back in the majors thus far, has been a 10.2% walk rate – well below major league average. This has resulted in a lot of high pitch count-6 inning games, as well as a few start wrecking bad innings. If a healthy elbow can help Wheeler improve his command, there is no reason he can’t be every bit as good as Harvey, deGrom and Syndergaard.
As assistant GM John Ricco said at the GM meetings, “We think coming off the surgery he’s going to be pain-free and might be better than the guy we saw when he came up.”
In case you’ve forgotten, Wheeler has electric stuff with a 98mph fastball, a biting slider, a sweeping curve and a pretty solid sinking changeup. Check out the animated GIFs at SB Nation for a refresher.
He may not be back until June or July, but just imagine a team with five aces. With any offense at all, we could be a playoff lock for the next three years. There are no losing streaks when you have five aces. And the old school notion that you only need three or four strong starters doesn’t hold as true as it used to. Injury insurance aside, you need five starters to get through a season. In the Cy Young, Christy Mathewson days, aces pitched twice a week (and apparently had rubber arms). In the pitching rich era of the 1960s and early 1970s, many teams used four-man rotations and starters like Fergie Jenkins and Steve Carlton would make 40 starts per year. In 1972, Carlton threw 30 complete games and 346.1 innings!
Today’s starters, with injury concerns and strict pitch counts, only give you 32 or 33 starts, provided they stay healthy all year. If you do the math, that means your 5th starter will pitch as many games as your ace, or very close to it. Many teams use the 5th rotation spot fluidly among cheap veterans in decline, rookies getting tested and guys coming back from injury. In this era of sabermetrics it’s astounding that teams are giving away 20 percent of their games.
In three years Harvey will be a very expensive free agent that we may not be able to keep. At the same time, deGrom and Wheeler will be in their second and third years of arbitration respectively. Syndergaard and Matz won’t be cheap forever and the once fertile garden of rocket arms in our system has dried up. Presently there is not a single pitching prospect in our system on anyone’s radar. Locking up all five arms long-term is not realistic. We’ll likely have to trade one of them in a few years, but for now let’s see what happens with five aces.
Do you still want to trade Wheeler?
I don’t believe you can become fixated on players and the concept of that Young, Big 5 Staff…I hope they continue to compare any alternatives presented.
A trade for one of the pitchers would need to be a haul
Other than the Angels saying “Let’s not trade Mike Trout” I usually can’t agree with anyone saying that we must keep any individual player when some other player or combination of players could be worth more in the long haul for the team.
That being said I am comfortable with the idea of not trading Zack Wheeler for less than a significant return.
Here’s a swap which I doubt most others would agree with but I think has the chance to work out well: Wheeler to Cubs for Javier Baez. It would be risky for sure but upgrades SS defensively and carries with it the potential of a shortstop contributing 25 home runs to the cause. Yes he strikes out way too much but Wheeler isn’t bringing back Addison Russell, Kevin Correia, or Francisco Lindor in trade.
A young controllable ace is an extremely valuable commodity. Whenever the Mets inevitably trade one of them it better be in exchange for a stud or a star. You don’t trade a pre-arbitration, perennial 15-win 200k pitcher just hitting his prime for Starlin Castro or Erik Aybar. Baez is a nice prospect, but he hasn’t proven himself at the MLB level the way all of the Mets pitchers have.
I can agree with this: “Let’s Not Trade Zack Wheeler . . . Now.”
He’s undervalued at this point, coming off major surgery. Don’t sell this guy low.
I don’t believe in the “Big 5” approach. I believe in the complete team and the importance of quality, everyday positional players.
James, to your point just go with 4 + Niese for now and next year fill that spot with a journeyman?
We have a ground breaking opportunity to be the first ever team with 5 aces. Wouldn’t you love to see how that plays out? For the next 3 years, while we can keep them together, we can fill out the offense with rentals and short term veteran contracts. 5 aces = playoffs every year.
The Mets need to start making offers to the starting pitchers to buy out FA years. The other smart move is not to trade anyone until we see how Wheeler is after he returns. Eventually we trade a pitcher for the right package. For the next 2 seasons, lean on the 5 aces to get back to the postseason. Fill holes in the lineup in the offseason and the trading deadline. Rinse, repeat.
This plan is genius
Remember the Mets in June and July? They need offense. They traded a lot of the farm for one year rentals. Now they need to replace them and Murphy. iTs sign a FA or two or make a trade.
The notion of 5 aces simply is over-cooked by some distance. A quick look at the numbers would show you that. Furthermore, none of our pitchers can show they are aces. Yes, we have talented pitchers, with a lot of upside. However, aces actally have the numbers to show that. Our staff is too young to accrue the numbers to be called an “ace”, a term applied to achievement not promise.
Wheeler is not an ace by any measure of the term. Before the surgery I thought he was a prime trade target as I believe he has been far overvalued. With the surgery correcting a number of matters I believe he has the chance to redeem himself and now we would be trading at too low a value. I think he has solid mid to upper rotation potential, say 2.5. If he does well after recovering, it is smart to move a pitcher for proven MLB talent if a trade can be made.
I also think it is hubris to imagine that rolling out the big 5 would be any guarantee for sustained consecutive playoff appearances. Its hard enough to make it any year let alone believing that there is a mortal lock on it. It still may very well be the only entry point into the post season is via winning the East. I dont expect that to be easy. No NL team is going to roll over to cede post season games to the Mets.
James is completely right. We need a solid MLB player at most positions and a couple special players thrown in. It is far too much load to expect the starters to win 2-1 or 1-0 on a daily basis, not to mention the pressure that puts on the relievers.
Would trade Wheeler for a star in the bullpen that can lead to Familia. The reality is that 6 innings from a starter appears to be the norm for a good outing and actual preserves their arms. Funny that this was never sufficient for those pitchers in my youth – Seaver, Gibson, Hershiser, Palmer and a host of greats – but that is the way it is now.
2015 was a great season for the Mets. It is a pleasure to be able to deal from strength. If another team wants one of our starters who would probably be at worst a number two on most teams, they are simply going to have to over pay for them.
Also with attendance quickly climbing and the impact of the Madoff crap very much diminished because of the money paid back to the Wilpons via recoveries, there is money to spend.
If you think that you need 6 IP to be a good pitcher and the norm, then Zack Wheeler is below average and not your guy.
In 2014, he failed to complete 6 innings 10 times. And that was because TC routinely allowed him to go in the 110-115 range (probably also why he got hurt). And people thought he had a good year. Can you imagine how few innings he’ll provide when he’s given a 90-95 pitch count? I struggle to see him completing 5 on a daily basis.
In comparison, in a down year for Niese in 2015, he only failed to complete 6 innings 9 times. And he never surpassed 107 pitches in any start.
I really think Wheeler is done as an average MLB pitcher. He could probably hack it as a #5 for a while, but expecting anything more is just foolish. I think a good comp for Wheeler is Matt Moore, another overhyped pitcher who struggled to provide innings early on, had TJ surgery 2/3 years in, and when he came back, showed that he doesn’t have it anymore.
A 3.5 ERA with a balky elbow. I can’t wait to see what he does with a clean arm. Watch the video clips and remind youraelf how electric this kid is.
Five ace starters! Come on don’t be greedy. Call a mulligan on the RA Dickey trade and send Syndergard back to the Blue Jays. Then to show there are no hard feelings trade deGrom for Aaron Loup.
Now if you’ll excuse me I need to put some fresh tin foil in my hat.
The Mets have 4 more years of control of Zack wheeler. Wheeler will hopefully be giving them three more productive years after he rehabs in 2016. Wheeler has not produced statistics to be a number one starter. He has plenty of potential though . If you traded wheeler now you would be selling low. If I could get a top notch cost control shortstop for him I would trade him. I just don’t think that type of trade is available.
Metsense, you’re spot on. Perhaps I’m a bit optimistic referring to some of our pitchers as aces, but I look at the Cubs, Sawx, Jays and other teams looking to cough up $200 million contracts for front line pitchers and I’m really glad wr’re not prt of that.