All of us were excited that Matt Harvey was returning to the mound in 2016 but none of us were sure what to expect. And Harvey ended up with a fantastic return, PR nightmare aside. But that was far from a given before the start of Spring Training. With that in mind, check in on our original piece to see what we thought coming into the year. Here was our group forecast:
IP – 160.2
ERA – 3.02
Ks – 171
BB – 46
HR – 11
FIP – 2.82
WHIP – 1.123
Here’s how Harvey actually did, with the best and worst individual projections among our group.
IP – 189.1
Best – Singer (184.2)
Worst – Kolton (99.2)
ERA – 2.71
Best – Singer (2.73)
Worst – Kolton (4.07)
Ks – 188
Best – Ferguson (190)
Worst – Kolton (132)
BB – 37
Best – Rogan (37)
Worst – Hangley (63)
HR – 18
Best – Hangley, Kolton (17)
Worst – Ferguson (7)
FIP – 3.05
Best – Joura (3.00)
Worst – Hangley (3.85)
WHIP – 1.019
Best – Koehler (1.000)
Worst – Kolton (2.130)
He threw more innings at a better ERA and with a much better BB rate than what we projected as a group. Still, given all of the uncertainty around him, this feels like a solid forecast. Steamer did a better job forecasting his difficulty with the long ball but otherwise, our projection was similar to the ones by the big boys. Individually, we did a great job with every category.
My take throughout the 2015 season is that the fans were not properly appreciating what Harvey was doing on the mound. Then when the innings limit kerfuffle hit, many fans went even further off the edge, wanting to trade him for pennies on the dollar as a way to thumb their nose at his agent. Should the Mets explore trade options with Harvey? Absolutely – but they should only pull the trigger if they get full value.
Harvey remains a guy who wants the ball in big moments and he’s capable of delivering shutdown performances each and every time he takes the mound. My plan is to enjoy watching him pitch for every start he has remaining in a Mets uniform, whether that number is in single or triple digits.
What a character. There is little doubt in my mind that he will continue to improve as we head into 2016, if the Mets don’t baby him.
I remember only a few years ago, when the Nationals were still pulling Strasburg out of starts early- even after the 2012 affair. I really hope this doesn’t happen with the Dark Knight. Harvey has a bulldog personality on the hill, and it would be a shame if the Mets don’t let him throw 210-225 innings this season (if his production allows it).
And for the love of God, why would we trade this guy?
http://metsblog.com/metsblog/what-should-the-mets-expect-from-matt-harvey-in-2015/
This well researched article analyzed pitchers who had TJ surgery and then set the expectations for Harvey’s 2015 season based on this analysis. Harvey exceeded the expectations of the article. It is true that the fans were not properly appreciating what Harvey was doing on the mound. It was surprising that the “in season” innings limit was exceeded and then blown away with the march to the World Series. The articles research indicates that the second year after TJ surgery that Harvey should be better. It will be interesting to see if exceeding the innings will have a negative effect on his year two post surgery results. Fatigue is more of a factor for injury cause, be it in game or over the course of a season. The Pirates and other teams monitor fatigue and it seems to be a better gauge in avoiding injury than pre determined innings limits or pitch counts.
Harvey exceeded expectations.
Harvey probably had the best first year post TJ surgery of any starting pitcher in history.
That’s probably true.
However, who better to do it than the guy who started the All-Star game at age 24 and came back from TJ surgery at age 26?
His Joe Namath persona aside, I’m just in awe of this guy. He’s the complete package with power, precision, stamina, guts, smarts and 4 plus pitches (5 if you count the cutter he’s been working on). He is cut from the same cloth as Roger Clemens. In 2016 with no innings limits and less hesitation to throw his slider – his best out pitch – I really believe that, with decent run support, he will be a Cy Young candidate.