As the offseason progresses, it seems that the offseason gets slower and slower. With all the chatter about the Mets looking to upgrade on offense, at times it seems like the only problem not facing the Mets these days is the rotation. That being said, the Mets should make a change in their area of strength. Due to the endless options that the Mets can explore with the potential move, they should switch Jon Niese with Logan Verrett in the Opening Day rotation.
Before the hubbub begins, it must be noted that Zack Wheeler should and will take the rotation spot from whomever keeps it warm for 3-4 months.
Niese has been a good soldier for the Mets over the past eight years (it’s crazy to think about, right?). He has put up with being the lone lefty at times, being the only mainstay, and even being the only one to last the entire season. However, his production is not what the Mets paid for back in early 2012.
Don’t get me wrong, Niese’s 190.1 innings in 2012 showed tremendous growth for his career. He even started to become a reliable starter over the next two seasons. Unfortunately, Niese had stretches during 2015 in which he simply looked lost out on the diamond, which reached its apex when he screamed at Travis d’Arnaud in the dugout during the “biggest game he’s ever pitched in” according to Terry Collins.
At the other end of the spectrum is a 26 year-old right-hander that just experienced the wildest ten months of his life. Verrett was drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the Rule Five draft on December 11, 2014. Then, after a 2.20 ERA over 16.1 innings in Spring Training, was selected off of waivers by the eventual AL West champs, the Rangers. After nine innings of disappointing baseball, Verrett was returned to the 16-10 NL East leaders.
After a 30-inning stint in Las Vegas, Verrett made his debut for the Mets and was quite effective. He allowed a grand total of one run in 12.1 innings, which ended with an impressive 3-inning save against the Dodgers. After another trip to the minors, Verrett arrived with a flourish.
Verrett produced this line against the Rockies….. in Coors Field:
8 innings 4 H 1 R 1 ER 1 BB 8 SO 1 HR 1 HBP 93 pittches
This start even prompted him to star in an interview on MLB network. Unfortunately, the Mets had to send him down because of a poor performance in relief against Boston. This was followed up by two dreadful starts in Las Vegas.
In late September, Verrett returned to face the Marlins, Braves, and Phillies in September with minimal success.
So why would we want a guy who could barely beat the scrubs of the NL East starting 20% of the team’s games before Wheeler comes back?
It’s simple: he’s not a flamethrower.
When you have a rotation that consists of four flamethrowers, what’s the easiest way to keep hitters off balance? Get a guy that is the complete opposite. Could you imagine the Mets having a regular season series in which Steven Matz and Harvey are pitching, but they are sandwiched between the 88 mph fastball of Verrett? It would completely throw off opposing hitters for the entire game and the next.
Verrett’s slider-sinker combination will keep hitters off balance after seeing 95 heat from Matz, and then will have to face 98 heat from Harvey the next day. It would be nasty. In fact, this style of a rotation was used to much success by the Tigers in 2012/2013. As Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello all tossed 90+ mph heat, Doug Fister pitched at around 88-89 in his fastball. If the Mets decide to do this, it would seem logical that the same success is not out of the question.
One may bring up the possibility of simply keeping Niese for this adventure of mixing up speeds in consecutive days, but this would not be a good idea. We’ve already seen what Niese can do and it is no longer particularly impressive. His 4.41 FIP and 1.398 WHIP suggest he is due for a major wake-up call next season, in which his numbers will suffer a sharp decline.
Verrett, on the other hand, represents a ton of new possibilities and room for growth. It would be smarter for a financially challenged team to the opportunity to a cheap arm, not to mention his potential room for improvement.
What can the Mets do with the lefty? Well, there are two options:
A) slide him into the bullpen, which might be a public relations nightmare (similar to Dillon Gee)
or
B) Trade him for anything they can get.
It’s never good to trade away pitching even with the amount of talent the Mets currently employ. Trading ups the ante of risk of injury and is never a great idea, hence keeping Niese might be best. Plus, Niese’s trade value is quite limited at this point. Considering Niese is a lefty, it would not seem unreasonable to believe the Mets could get inquiries from teams desperate for starting pitching.
Niese might not be thrilled with being stuck in the bullpen and it might be a waste of $9 million, but Niese showed in the playoffs that he can certainly handle the role. If he throws a fit like Gee did, then it would be a good time to part ways with the Ohio native.
One may bring up Bartolo Colon as a potential option to take the fifth spot, but his production seems to be worse than Niese at times. After play on August 21 his ERA stood at 4.90, and it’s not unreasonable to believe that it could reach that high once again. In regards to Rafael Montero, it would seem that the Mets view him as a relief pitcher after a failed starting stint both in 2014 and 2015. His arm does not appear to have the capability of going 6-7 innings at a time.
In the end, this could be a risk that makes the rotation that much stronger and immensely improves the bullpen.
“In the end, this could be a risk that makes the rotation that much stronger and immensely improves the bullpen”
No it doesn’t.. It seems you are blinded and biased towards that one start in Colorado, which was impressive, but only one start. In his other 3 starts, he posted a 5.02 ERA. Small sample size though.
At best, you could characterize it as a draw between Niese and Verrett as the 5th starter. Most likely though, Niese is better.
In the end, there is no compelling reason to make the change.And there’s no reason to change for the sake of change.
I think Mickey Jannis will be on the team by July at the latest. He has become a RA Dickey type of knuckleballer, and nothing throws hitters off better that a knuckler, screwball or forkball. Mickey had a 1.88 ERA in the AFL this year so I think he is someone the Mets will definitely be looking at come the summer. A knuckler out of the bullpen can be a real big asset. The Mets also have him starting games in the minors last year so he might be able to spot start when needed. Logan Verrett is an ok pitcher but I prefer Hansel Robles and Sean Gilmartin to Verrett.
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There are lots of problems I have with this article. The largest problem is that the article assumes the fallacy that Niese has no value.
Name has said most of what I’d want to.
At this point the only reasons for trading Niese are:
1. Gaining payroll flexibility (hopefully that means using the money gained and not pocketing it).
2. As part of a package that will net a player to strengthen the team at one of three areas—bp, if or cf.
Otherwise, I agree with Name—“Niese is better.”
We cannot diminish the role of experience in facing major league line-ups…I would go to battle sooner with Bartolo or Neise before Verrett…no offense, I know there exists interminable hours before spring trading, but this kind of loose speculation is simply occupying time with inconsequential dialog. Verrett is lucky to have a job not stocking shelves !
LH starting pitchers are valuable. A guy with a track record and 190 innings is worth more than 9 million today.
He’s a place holder for Wheeler….an insurance policy and a trade piece. You don’t devalue that…much less undervalue it
Verrett still has much to prove so I wouldn’t put all my eggs in that basket quite yet. Niese seems like the best option going forward as he’s under contract.
80 National League starting pitchers threw 70+ innings in 2015. Of these pitchers, Jon Niese was ranked 48th in ERA , 54th in FIP and 57th in WHIP. That would qualify him as a solid #4 starter on most teams. The Mets only want him to be a 5th starter for 1/2 a season and they are committed to paying him a reasonable $9m. If Niese could be involved in a trade that would improve the team then of course the Mets should do it. If a trade happens, then Montero should be considered higher on the depth chart to replace Niese before Verrett.
well said, Metsense. I keep agreeing with you lately. What gives?