Whether it is how well your sports team did last year or your son’s weekly bowling scores it is human nature to always want to see improvement from year to year (or week to week).
One of my favorite sports quotes came from the undistinguished 1950s starting pitcher Billy Loes.
He said, “Never win 20 games because they will expect you to do it every year.”
For the record Billy never had to worry much about that as his career high for wins in a season was 14 during his 11 year career.
When the 2015 major league season began the Mets under Sandy Alderson were on a four year sub-.500 streak having won 77, 74, 74, and 79 games respectively. Polls in the newspaper, on Twitter, and at the various Mets blogs had the ’15 team pegged at anywhere from 80 wins to perhaps 90 or slightly above. After all, the Dark Knight, Matt Harvey, was coming back and that finally had to push the club over .500. Didn’t it?
Undoubtedly had the Mets finished the 2015 with a win total in the mid 80s and especially had they done so while making it to the wild card game most, if not all, Mets fans would have considered the season a success and then set the bar a bit higher for the 2016 team.
Fast forward to the very end of July and the trade deadline. The team propelled by outstanding starting pitching and a puny offense sat in second place with a 53-50 record. This projects to an 83 win season had it continued that way.
We all know how the corner got turned when Yoenis Cespedes, the world’s greatest rental player, came aboard. The Mets went on to pass the Nationals, win 90 games, power through two rounds of playoffs (thank you Daniel Murphy), and lose the World Series in five to the Royals of Kansas City.
This does not leave a whole lot of room for incremental improvement especially when we recognize that it is unlikely that either Daniel Murphy or Cespedes will be on the 2016 club. To be considered improved the club would have to exceed 90 wins, win the division again, win the first two rounds of playoffs, and then either lose in the World Series in six or seven games or win the whole enchilada.
Is this doable? Yes. Is it likely? Not bloody so.
But if the Mets have set the bar too high then what of those Royals? They lost in the World Series in 2014 then won it in five games the next year. The only encore that tops that is winning it again in a sweep. Now that’s setting the bar real high!
The bar was set on December 17, 2012 when the Mets sent R.A.Dickey the reigning Cy Young award winner to the the Toronto Blue Jays for Wuilmer Becerra (minors), John Buck, Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard. Management sold it as a trade of the present for the promise of playoffs in the future. Three long seasons later the Mets achieved that goal and the rebuilding is done. It is now expected that the Mets make the playoffs for the next few years. 2015 should not be considered a fluke but the result of Alderson building a solid and deep farm system that will sustain playoff baseball for years to come through trades and development. That was the promised plan. The fans suffered through the previous four years based on the promises of management and ownership. The fan base may not have predicted the 2015 results but there would have been plenty of complaining if the playoffs were missed. Five years would have been a long time to be rebuilding and many would have felt that it was taking too long. Management delivered and they are now responsible to keep delivering.
Five years would have been a long time to be rebuilding and many would have felt that it was taking too long. Management delivered and they are now responsible to keep delivering.
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The Mets have a great starting rotation right now. We’ve just seen David Price sign a $217 million deal, underscoring the fact that for these dumb, misguided, cheapskate Mets, the opportunity is now. Today. Immediately. Because who knows what this will look like in three years.
The best thing the club can do is win with an exciting brand of baseball, and generate sales and profits moving forward. Revenues are way up this year, and next season they will go up much, much more (historically, the profit bump is the year that follows a deep playoff run). There is room for incredible growth and profit; this is NYC, and the money is here to be made.
If the club goes forward without fixing its flaws, if they hope for a dull 90 win season without offense, they will be blowing a golden opportunity to generate revenue.
Now is the time to invest, build on their success, with the goal to retain talent moving forward. This is no time for the meek.
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Unfortunately the Wilpons are swimming in such deep debt that the additional cash infusion from the successful 2015 campaign does not figure to carry with it any significant increase in payroll.
It surprises me that the Mets are (supposedly) still in it on Zobrist since they have not won a bidding war for any player since the Madoff scandal.
I don’t believe a word of this financial analysis. There is huge money to be made here in NYC and the Mets need to raise annual payroll, invest in product, as a way to make more money. By not investing, by missing the playoffs in 2016, by having a dull club — to me, that’s the real financial risk, the blown opportunity. And to be clear, given the circumstances this winter, there’s no need to spend crazy money. Just enough to Address clear and obvious weaknesses in CF, the pen, middle infield, and the bench.
You’re right. The team should have thrown the playoffs just so they would have an easier goal this year.
This is nonsense time in the Mets blogosphere as people feel compelled to say something when they have nothing to say. You have set the bar for stupid blog posts very high this year. Congratulations!
Larry,
Thanks for the picture of Billy Loes. He was a puzzle that the Brooklyn Dodgers could never solve. Talented, but a head case. I’m sure that Vince Scully could regale us with many colorful stories about Loes. He and Johnny Podres were contemporaries who were expected to complement a starting staff that featured Carl Erskine and Don Newcombe. Then they were joined by a “bonus baby” named Koufax and a big kid named Drysdale. And then the move to LA.
It’s obvious that I miss the old days of the “Brooks.”
Hm…well they definitely exceeded expectations, and literally the only way to improve next year is to win the World Series. It was a blast. I’d almost forgotten what it was like to watch a team play like that and go so far into the post season.
I don’t know that I’d say they set the bar too high, but I’d say that they’ve certainly raised expectations to the point that expecting more is only going to lead to disappointment. The cynical way to look at it would be they set the bar too high in the sense that we expect them to be all in this off-season to keep pushing forward and all signs point to disappointment in that aspect. It’s early yet and we’ll have a better idea of what they have in mind towards the end of next week, I think.
Raising the bar is a good thing. Management did its job, as did the coaches and most of the players. James is spot on. Seeing the astronomical contracts that front line pitchers are getting now, we’ve got a 3 or 4 year window when we should be in contention and, with a few smart front office moves and a little luck, could win a World Series or maybe even two.
Regardless of what the Wilpon bank account looks like, this team would be foolish to tighten the purse strings now. They don’t have to throw around huge money at Upton or Heyward, but they should not be getting outbid on guys they identify as perfect fits like Zobrist, Parra and Soria.