Ben Zobrist has been a favorite of mine for many years now. The Mets are coming off their best season in ages, due in no small part to the moves made by the current front office. That same front office has made targeting Zobrist its number-one priority this offseason. Given that information, why is there not more joy around the news for me?
In a way, Zobrist is a little bit like Carlos Beltran. Both were players in their prime who could do a lot of things really well. Zobrist could hit, he could run and he could field. Certainly, he did not have the power of a Beltran. But you never saw Beltran play shortstop, either. The beauty of Zobrist is that you could play him in the field anywhere but catcher, hit him anywhere in the lineup and have an asset.
There are probably a bunch of guys who could do what Zobrist does but few ever get that chance. The conventional wisdom is if you have a star, you let him play one position, write his name in there and worry about other spots. But as Zobrist didn’t make the majors until age 25 and didn’t exceed 62 games in a season until age 28, he was treated a little differently than Beltran, who won Rookie of the Year at age 22.
It certainly didn’t hurt that his manager was Joe Maddon, a guy not afraid of doing things differently if he felt it would help the team. As baseball fans, we should be glad that Maddon and Zobrist got to work together for six full seasons. That pairing produced 35 fWAR from 2009-2014.
Last year was the first time that Zobrist had a manager other than Maddon. He went from a 5.5 fWAR in 2014 to a 2.1 fWAR this past season. However, an injured knee probably had more to do with the drop in value than a switch in managers. The knee really hampered him early in the year but by the time the Mets saw him in the World Series, he looked very much like the guy he had been the previous six campaigns.
When the Mets acquired Beltran, he was entering his age 28 season. Zobrist in 2016 will be entering his age 35 season. The Mets essentially acquired Beltran for the time that Zobrist has been a regular in the majors. Beltran is still out there, putting up solid seasons for a guy his age. But it’s nothing like the .904 OPS he put up in his final season in Queens.
Zobrist may be able to hit like he has previously going forward, but what are the odds he can run and field like he did previously? He had all of 3 SB last year and he rated negatively in the baserunning component of WAR. Defensively, he had a (-13.3) UZR/150 at 2B last year in about half a year’s worth of time at the position. Additionally, he had a (-7) DRS in the middle infield. The numbers were no better in the outfield, where in 380.2 innings, he put up a (-15.1) UZR/150 and a (-5) DRS. And he did not play a single inning at shortstop in 2015.
It’s wonderful to have the willingness to go out and play multiple positions. It’s not so great if you go out and can’t really play any of them. Have we reached that stage with Zobrist? The fact that he was playing with an injured knee gives hope for a rebound. But we have to balance that out with the knowledge that 35 year olds don’t recover as quickly as 25 year olds and have long passed their defensive peaks, even if they did.
However, the Mets would acquire Zobrist primarily to play 2B and perhaps act as an insurance policy for David Wright over at 3B. So, if we take outfield out of the equation, why would the Mets prefer Zobrist at age 35 to Daniel Murphy at age 31? The Mets offered Murphy arbitration and while they may have felt confident he would decline the offer, they had to at least be prepared for Murphy to accept and return in 2016.
Knowing that, do the Mets think that Murphy, at four years his junior, will simply age worse than Zobrist after one more year? Or do they think they can get Zobrist at significantly fewer dollars than a long-term deal for Murphy would cost? And what about the implications for Dilson Herrera? You can make the case – although I wouldn’t – that an extra year in the minors would be beneficial for Herrera. But why sign Zobrist to a three or four-year deal if you have someone ready in the system to take over at his best position?
Do the Mets feel that Zobrist would accept a reserve/super sub role better than Murphy? That’s certainly possible. But would you want to pay someone $15 million a year when your best judgment tells you he won’t be a starter at any position the final years (note the plural) of the contract? Everyone is rightfully upset over the $12.5 million due Michael Cuddyer this year – do we really want to repeat that experience?
As a fan, my preference is to see Zobrist get a nice payday and land in a good spot for the remainder of his career. It seems he’s earned that. It’s just hard to look at all of the information and determine that spot is in Queens.
Good article and I agree with pretty much everything you have written including the possibility that signing Zo might not be the best way to go for the Mets.
One small correction though. They didn’t offer Murphy arbitration. Rather he was given a Qualifying Offer which is a straight up one year offer for $15.8 million which Murph has declined.
Ben Zobrist is a very good player and on a financially endowed team would be a nice luxury to have. He is 35 years of age and expecting to sign at least a 4/60 contract. The Mets should spend that money elsewhere. The Mets are a financially handicapped team and because of the limited financial resources it is necessary for them to rely on their position prospects to produce. In 2016 that would be Conforto and Herrera. A Zobrist signing would impede Herrera and the fact that the Mets are leaning in this direction indicates to me that the Mets see a problem with Herrera. It could also be an indication that the Mets know more about the fragile physical state of Wright’s back than they are letting on to. If the Mets are looking for insurance for Herera or Wright then they should sign a cheap alternative like Kelly Johnson. The budget money should be used for an upgrade at shortstop, center field and a relief pitcher. It should not be spent on a 35 year old free agent.
Fully agree– I think he makes a nice luxury piece, but at his age and for those dollars and years, I don’t think he’s a fit for the Mets.
However, if they do sign him, he will replace Don Zimmer at the end of the team’s all-time alphabetical roster. So that’s something…
I agree. We need a backup like Kelly Johnson to fill a few spots in case Herrera falters or the Captain gets hurt. A high priced 4 year deal for Zobrist are funds that should be used towards a power hitter to replace Cespedes
Sure, on paper he seems to be a perfect fit for them in terms of spreading him around the diamond. He’s as super as super can be in terms of utility players go. I don’t know that there’s even a term for what he is since he’s transcended the output of your typical utility player. That’s reflected in what he will cost.
But for a FO that preaches fiscal responsibility/smart contracts, the fact that they seem to be gunning to sign Zobrist no matter the cost is puzzling. At 35-years-old and wanting a 4-year contract (that they would reportedly give), this seems to fly in the face of what they say. I like Zobrist, I just don’t quite understand this team’s level of commitment to signing him given what appears to be their budgetary restrictions.
It may actually mean that a 4-year contract for him is them “going all in,” which is pretty depressing.
Maybe Cabrera at 2/24 million?
.251/.309/.412
.248/.326/.409
These are the Marcel predictions at Baseball-Reference for two guys. You can sign one of these guys at 2/$24 and the other you can promote from within and pay minimum wage.
Cabrera at that price might have been an interesting play at SS. But tendering Tejada means the team’s pretty much content to go the Flojada bit at SS again this season.
It is surely an enigma why Zobrist at 35 is enticing to this conservative front office…perhaps as its been mentioned, that Wright’s damaged goods back is never going to allow him to play at an elite level again…in that scenario then trade for a long term solution at third, like homeboy Todd Frazier…it’s going to require a ransom of royal proportions granted, but it certainly adds offense which is sorely necessary after Yoenis and Daniel depart the field that never sleeps…I am full of trepidation of a repeat of that woeful display of our first half of 2015…pitiful fails to describe it ! Having said that, I am a huge believer in the future of our beloved team, however observing the movement of the Hot stove and the escalating rapidly, cost of talent, and considering our run for the roses was fueled by basically two en fuego players who’s buttocks can soon be seen exiting stage left, if we do not reload the proverbial clip with bullets which don’t shoot blanks, then we’ve hoisted the dreaded white flag of surrender. Pitching aside, No way we scare anyone with the lumber; especially without our most prolific Murphyesque soldier, flawed as he may be he was at least dependable. Break out the do-re-mi Wilpons, stop pussying around with us fans and capitalize now on our enviable inexpensive talent before it slips away.
The Mets have so much invested, both monetarily and emotionally, in Wright that it’s easy to see why they’re not going to spend for a long-term solution at 3B unless they absolutely have no choice than to do otherwise.
However, they need to have a better Plan B than Eric Campbell.
Bringing back either Kelly Johnson or Uribe seems to make a lot of sense. This way Wright can be the starter as long as he’s capable and if and when he goes down for an extended period, you have a competent reserve on hand. Both could also be solid alternatives should The Dilson fail to hit at 2B.
“No please; don’t sign Ben Zobrist”, should be the mantra that we here at mets360 should be imploring the Mets front office. All the above points, as to why Zobrist would be the 2016 version of Cuddyer, have been in the back of my mind, and I’m glad that Joura and others have stated so clearly. For a lot less $$, this organization needs a speedy OF defender to platoon with Lagares, instead of potentially retarding the development of Herrera in the IF. Metsense is spots on 100% as to where the (limited) money should go to.
I’m taking the road less traveled. I’m all in on Zobrist. Capable proven MLB talent that tortured us in the WS. Our best days to return are right now, and given an infield of complete question marks, putting in a guy that can do it multiple positions makes sense all around. Herrera, as I’ve said elsewhere, is far too much risk as a wildcard of unproven major league talent, particularly when paired with Flores, who is terrible at SS. I also have read scouting from the start of 2015 that predicted Herrera to be about the same as Murphy on defense, so maybe he becomes passable. However, this team is missing professional at bats, particularly with Murph and Ces gone. He would make an excellent person to groom Herrera as well. 4/60 for a team is peanuts, even if that 4th yr is tough to swallow…welcome to the MLB in 2015 and beyond.
I’m not a huge fan of the possible signing, although I’m a huge fan of the Player.
If they sign him, he should be able to get 500 very helpful ab’s across 5-6 positions—That is the value he brings, along with the fact that he will provide extra insurance for Wright.
“Starting” him at a set position is an automatic reduction to the unique value he provides.
ps… Live and Die with Dilson for 200-300 ab’s
It is just this simple. Because Zobrist’s age he will be another Cuddyer. Mets already now have reduced David Wright fielding range who is going to be a part time player due to spinal issues. I’ll take Murphy over Zobrist any day of the week. Out of desperation, I’ve observed some Met fans are obsessed over subjective statistics that didn’t even exist 20 years ago. For example, arguing Dilson limited stats is a suitable replacement for Murphy is absurd. Dilson may be a better fielder, but compare his lifetime .215 batting average to Murphy’s .288 (.271 against LHP). When Daniel came up to the Mets he demonstrated he could hit all ML pitching. With exception of an occasional HR, Dison is embarrassingly over matched by ML pitching.
No, what’s absurd is thinking that a guy who hit in every level of the minors is accurately rated by 169 sporadic PA in the majors.
Brian, that happens all the time. It would be hugely unusual for a mid-level prospect to just come up and man handle major league pitching as a rookie. Herrera is not Lindor, Trout, Harper, or Correa, who all play this game at another level.
Back to a previous thread, I fully disagree with the assessment that the jump to the MLB is similar to any other jump. The final step is filled with a concentration of people that made it and accumulate for years so that the peer group is far greater, far better, and more experienced than the age group the travels mostly through the minors.
Even after Confortos great season, I’m still highly concerned what he can deliver, let alone being able to predict Herrera, who is a totally unknown quantity at this level.
I also realize we are at an impasse on this topic. My comments are not intended to be disagreeable, even though I strongly disagree.
Chris, I value your contributions here.
But I would like to make the following statements:
1. Making the standard for a rookie to “man handle” major league pitching is ridiculous. Herrera doesn’t have to perform at the level of Trout to be an asset and I don’t think anyone is claiming that’s what we should expect. The average NL 2B last year had a .703 OPS and if a rookie making the MLB minimum came up and offered that level of production, I would call that a good thing, especially for a club looking to maintain a mid-level payroll.
2. If you think the jump to the majors is harder than any other jump — let’s do the research. You pick any year(s) you like. And then you count the number of people who got significant time – say 400 PA or 100 IP in a season at both levels in back-to-back years – and see how many performed well in the minors and failed in the majors. After you pick the years, I’ll do the same thing for guys going from A-ball to Double-A. And then we’ll compare results.
3. You being “highly concerned” about Conforto shows more about you being a fan constantly at the Terror-Alert level Red for any and all things (how did that Mayor of Panic City thing turn out?) than it does anything about Conforto.
Brian
1. We need a new 2B to come in and give us the Murphy ABs that we are going to miss in his absence. Can Herrera become a major league 2B? Only time will tell. However, on the defending NL Champs, thats a lot of gambling as a strategy to win a WS.
2. I, albeit rather briefly, took a quick look at some younger players right now and pulled up their BR stats through the minors and their first year numbers. In most cases the drop is 25-50 points off BA, 100-200 on OPS. I didnt tablulate and plot anything yet, perhaps over the holidays, but there clearly was a decided drop off from the minors to the bigs. I expect Herrera to come nowhere near his minor league numbers. Im betting on a .260 BA and ~.700 OPS, which would represent a huge fall from his minors numbers. If that occurs, its because the competition is superior. It seems that way for quite a few people (not all).
3. While I certainly help up my Mayoral Duties, it is natural to be concerned about young kids can do. Conforto becimes quite a worrisome projection if he gets tons of ABs v lefty pitching. It will not be easy to predict what he can do, no matter how talented he is (and Im a Conforto guy).
How great it would be if life came with guarantees!
Some rookies are going to perform above their expected production levels, some are going to perform below their expected numbers. It’s no different than for veteran players. Juan Lagares hit 56 points of OPS below what he did in 2014. Daniel Murphy hit 36 points of OPS above what he did in 2014. The key is to have reasonable expected numbers. No one expects The Dilson to come in and produce an .893 OPS like he did in Las Vegas last year. Not one single person.
It’s not normal for a player’s production to be on a perfect upward angle as he advances in his career. David Wright went from .850 to .768 to .828 to 1.026 to .967 in his climb up the minor league ladder. And then his rookie season in the majors his OPS took a 110-point hit from Triple-A. Herrera’s numbers went down going from Double-A to Triple-A, despite playing in a hitter’s park in a hitter’s league at the higher level.
So, what’s a reasonable projection for Herrera? Steamer has him at a .710 OPS and Marcel has him at a .734 mark. Split the difference and we’re at .722 which is a far cry from what he did in the minors but still above average for his position among major league hitters.
Thru 467 PA last year, Murphy had a .732 OPS and the Mets had an 8.5 game lead at the end of the day on September 11. Murphy went on an insane hot streak from that point on to get to his final OPS but that’s not what he did through the great majority of the year and most importantly when the Mets built their insurmountable lead.
Murphy’s OPS in 2012 was .735 and a year later it was .733 and in 2014 it was .734. That’s remarkably consistent production. And then through 5+ months of the 2015 season, it was .732 — I’m not ready to say we should expect OPS marks of .770 going forward for Murphy. I also don’t think the Mets should set that as a baseline of what his successor should do.
At some point you have to let the kids play or else you’re paying for someone’s success somewhere else or you’re hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with someone who underperformed elsewhere. I’ll take the expected .722 OPS from Herrera and sink the $15 million savings elsewhere in the team. And I won’t worry about Herrera meeting his expectations any more than TDA or Duda or Flores or Wright or Conforto or Lagares or Granderson.
Occassionally someone does sail into the Bigs and keeps going strong, but thats not the norm. Realistically this team has 3 years to win a WS. Im all for giving the kids a chance, but not in so many places that the overall hopes of winning a WS is dashed. I could be 80 years old before the next time the Mets have a legit chance, and Id like to see another WS before I pass on to see that shiny Shea Stadium in the sky.
TdA is still not a slam dunk, particularly with the comment we need to play him at other positions to get KP ABs. I mean, neither are great. Duda is streaky. middle infield is totally shady. Wrights days at 3B have to be coming to a close, and who takes over? Conforto a babe in the woods, Lagares…shaky and uncertain, and Grandy, the most professional guy on the team. To win a WS we need quality calm proven pros. This isnt 2 years ago. The fierce urgency of now is upon us. Put in the players that will make this pitching force one for the record books.
My basic take on Herrera is that it’s not about the numbers. Pure numbers, he’s ready for a real shot. My sense is that for some reason — and I can only speculate why, let’s call it “maturity” — the organization does not believe he’s ready. I’ve never watched him in the clubhouse. I don’t know the man. But he is still very young
He has come up twice, and twice he’s spit the bit. He just hasn’t looked right or performed particularly well — at least to my eyes, though I’m sure Brian will disagree. He certainly didn’t take the job and not look back.
In these cases, where we really lack meaningful information, we just have to hope that the evaluators in the organization will make the right call. I’ve said it a million times. It all comes down to scouting. Making those choices. I hope they get this one right.
I’m not particularly excited about how things are lining up this winter . . . so far.
I can’t wrap my mind around the idea of Zobrist as a top priority, considering the contract and his age. He makes more sense as part of a series of moves. I’d rather sign Cespedes.
Any possibility to the idea that Alderson and or ownership has the opinion that they need to make a splash move….. But that the move needs to fit in a total commitment as far as dollars.
As in, go buy the biggest splash you can….. For under x dollars and less than x years
Heh. Another ex-Athletic’s player once again that Sandy wants to target. I remember we talked about this last year and it just popped into my head again.
Sandy sure loves Beane’s sloppy seconds.
I bet ya that Sandy will have interest in Ike Davis (remember him?) later this offseason. Probably Mujica too. Jason Pridie reunion?
2013 offseason: Curtis Granderson, age 33.
2014 offseason: Michael Cuddyer, age 36.
2015 offseason: Ben Zobrist?, age 35.
A slow, old team. Are they becoming the Yankees?
Once again they fail to realize that their most prized players need good gloves behind them. Instead, we are getting players that are well passed their prime and defensively weak.
The sad part is that Granny might be the most athletic position player on the team behind Lagares.
Brian, did you just coin “Flojada”? I love it.
Zobrist on a 2 year deal would be perfect but our front office pegged himas the guy and he’s in demand so…
Our infield situation is very complicated. I’d love to give Herrera a shot but hiw do you do that with so many question marks in the infield. A serious injury risk at 3rd, a platoon at short and the streakiest player in the league at first.
No, Flojada is not mine. It might be Metsense’s or someone else from the chatters.
Great Organizations plan for the ascent of prospects….and Dilson is a Hot 21 who is ready for a real shot. Kolton Wang was ready….then he failed….and he got ready again… and he has a shot at being a terrific player, just like Herrera.
The big mistake would be laying success or failure at the feet of the young, teething Major Leaguers. That should fall to the established Pitching Staff, and the Wright’s, Grandy’s, Duda’s D’Arnauds, etc.
The ability for any of the young players to succeed is to provide an environment …a Lineup!!!….where it’s possible for them to struggle…and fail…and keep playing.
Exactly Eraff. Unfortunately, that is exactly not the situation Herrera is coming in on. He needs to come in and replace Murph’s ABs with no one else capable of doing so. So he needs to hit from the start, and glove well too. Wong developed on a Cardinal team with solid big leaguers at most positions. We dont have that, so the pressure will be huge. He could respond. And if he is the guy, I hope to hell he does.
Chris— It’s December th. The lineup may not be complete on March 7th, much less dec 7
While that may be true, the position player situation looks pretty minimal. There’s nothing else besides finding a playmate for Lagares.
I mean really, just how many 6-8 hitters can this club have?
Tejada, Flores, Herrera, TdA, Conforto, Wright. Where do runs come from?
I am looking forward to this Zobrist signing. I think the deal must be just about done by now. Wilpon flew to Nashville to approve what needed his approval to close the deal. I think the Nats have already been eliminated. I watched a brief computer video today featuring Jack Morris and Jeff Nelson. They both see Zobrist as a good fit for the Mets and also see the Mets as a better choice for Zobrist over the Nats. They both agreed that Zobeist should prefer playing behind the Mets rotation then having to face the Mets starters as a Nat. If the money and years the Mets are offering what Zobrist wants then this is a no brainer for him. Hopefully, the deal gets done before Thursday so the Mets can start moving on to Parra and IMO Bastardo. Although I won’t be disappointed if they sign Sipp instead. I just liked the way Bastardo pitched vs. the Mets as a Buc in 2015. I am sorry to see Murphy go but his error in the WS really cost us and made him and the Mets look bad. Plus KC demonstrated for every MLB pitching coach to see how to get Murphy out. He turned down the QO of 15.8 million. That may prove to be a mistake. Frankly, he isn’t worth much more than that and for him right now there are no guarantees that he will get the big pay day he is hoping to get. Of course the Nats could be that team just to burn the Mets for signing Zobrist their first choice over Murphy. As for Cespedes. His OF misplays, base running error and not being able to adjust to how playoff teams were pitching him demonstrates that he is not worth much more that what Granderson is already getting. I know that there are a lot of Mets fans that probably disagree with what I have written here but it seems to me that it is probably all working out the way I see it for all the right reasons.
Now comes news that Zobrist wants to sign with a team that would let him play mostly second base. Well, what happened to the “versatility” everyone was after?
Don’t like where this is going: Signing aging players that will suppress the youth, for what? If anything his best position is right field.
He gets most his time at 2B, exactly where we don’t have anyone. His utility role situation for the Mets would have existed with Murphy still on the team. We don’t need a right fielder, we need a second baseman that can hit high in the order, which happens to be exactly what his services can provide.
“Let the kids play” was great 2-4 years ago, unless there is a very unusually high talent like Conforto. We have a narrow window to take the flag, and putting in professional players like Zobrist is a very smart, and cheap, move that the team absolutely has to make. And it’s clear the Mets are all in on Zobrist. If we don’t get him and the off season is asdrubal Cabrera followed by second and third tier relievers you won’t be happy.
Mainly because there’s no reason to pay Asdrubal Cabrera.
Nevertheless, we just did.
Last year I embraced the Cuddyer signing because I wanted it to work out. I will do the same again with Zobrist. But, if Zobrist is the established player you want at second, trade Herrera and an arm to the Yankees for Gardner. Why are we signing a 35 year old for four years when you have two kids ready to take the position, Flores and Herrera?
In one manner of looking at it, money aside, the Mets have upgraded 2B from Murphy to Zobrist — both offensively and defensively. Importantly, he crushes LHP on a team that has a decided weakness in that area.
So, again: If this is one move in a series of moves, I’m fine with it.
Talk of Zobrist’s flexibility is absurd at this point. He’s the new 2B (if he agrees to the deal). He might also be Wright insurance, provided he’d be willing (and able) to shift to 3B in the event of an extended injury to DW.
Absurd to say he’s flexible and effective at 2b, 3b, 1b, lf, rf…????? What are you watching? He can give you 500 ab’s doing that…..and even steal an inning or two at ss.
Putting him at 2b and promissing the position is what’s Absurd!!! His value is his flexibility—otherwise, I pass!
A moot point, but he wasn’t coming to the Mets to be a super sub. He wanted regular position for the most part — and that’s what the Mets offered.
Gus—Agreed!!!!! ……. playing him at one position is a tremendous errosion to the value he provides. Just Say No!!!!
Eraff, last night watching the MLB Network late into the night, I saw a fun interview with Paul Molitor, to which they showed the Twins projected lineup. “Eduardo Escobar, Switch” at the bottom really reminded me that this front office keeps swinging for the fences and even though they may connect once in a while, it’s mostly swings and misses.
I’m happy we skipped Z.
Put Dilson at 2b. Get an OF Bat… re-sign K. Johnson. Get some arms. Keed some powder dry to address in-season needs.
Sign Cespedes…what the heck!!!!
Kelly Johnson. Seriously. That’s not a playoff move.
Zobrist to the Cubs for four years. Yankees acquire Castro.
Well crap, another winter of discontent has arrived.
Present 2016 Mets infield
3B. David Wright, spinal stenosis, prognosis uncertain
SS1. Broken leg, hopeful recovery by start of season
SS2. Broken ankle, hopeful recovery by start of season
SS3. Prospect that has to be in the mix
2B. Prospect
1B. Duda
C1. Can’t stay healthy,
C2. Back up level
Outfield
LF1. Potential star but young
LF2. 12.5M$ clubhouse guy, pinch hitter
CF. broken armed, defensively declining guy that can’t hit
RF. Legit MLB star and MVP of team
Braves stockpiling for battle
Phillies dead for years
Marlins self destruct mode
Nats still doing little, as are the Mets
Harrumph
OK, Eeyore, just once, try not to imagine the worst flipping thing possible at each position
3B – Came back from injury to play 30 games down the stretch and all 14 playoff games. Has five months to continue rest & rehab
SS – Both players expected to be 100% by Spring Training
2B – One of the top minor league prospects at the position ready to step in
1B – 2nd among NL first basemen in homers the past two years
C – .825 OPS last year was the third best in the NL among those with at least 100 PA
LF – Young star ready to step in and be the team’s #3 hitter
CF – Former Gold Glove Award winner posted a .797 OPS the final two months of the season
RF – Drew MVP votes
Braves are years away from being good
Phillies still a year or two away
Marlins have two stars who can’t stay healthy
Nats are still in disarray
Mets should be division favorites
Can you send me a pair of the rose colored glasses you have on? The above team has a over/under of 82.5 wins.
The Wright situation will be hard to improve as he ages and the disease progress. My dad has spinal stenosis, and while he is not an athlete, he has had no relief in 15 years. Neither shortstop, even if recovered is a threat to hit above 6 hole. Herrera another bottom of the order guy, and Duda, and I love the guy, is as streaky as it gets. TdA spent the last couple months of the season completely lost in the tall grass at the plate. I’m afraid I’ve lost the battle with Lagares – I’ve been convinced he’s a platoon guy at best, with defensive skills that abandoned him somehow. I long for 2013-14 seasons and his defense, but I’m not believing anymore. Grandy Is great.
I’d love to see how you build a line up with that roster. I’ve tried, and I can’t see regular run production coming from anything other than the HR we hit.
Your last sentence is a bit of a concern. For all of the lip service the Mets give to working counts and getting on base, they certainly have no problem playing guys who avoid walks like the plague. Having said that, I just don’t see a lineup with seven spots featuring an OPS of .700 or above having great difficulty scoring runs. Like you said, the key will be getting a platoon partner for Lagares. That should be doable.
I expect the Mets to kick the tires on Neil Walker but after that falls through, I expect they’ll give up the ghost of bringing in a 2B, unless the market for Murphy disappears. Herrera will start off batting 8th, because that’s what Collins does. That’s not terrible and I’d expect it to be a different story sometime in the second half. Ultimately, I see The Dilson as a first or second-place hitter, depending on how enamored they are with Granny leading off.
My view is that the Mets have three priorities this offseason:
1. Platoon partner for Lagares
2. Capable backup for Wright
3. Bullpen guy to replace Clippard
I have no doubt the Mets will add “acquire a LOOGY” to the list.
The moderate route is to sign Span/Cabrera/Sipp.
It is becoming more obvious to me that the Mets are uncomfortable with the 21 year old Herrera being ready. Cabrera on a two year deal (estimated at 2/20) is short term enough and he does bring offense to the SS position. Cabrera/Flores/Tejada in the middle if the Mets are uncomfortable with Herrera. Span is doable at 3/36.
The Mets should come to the realization that they won’t be able to afford their pitching in the future unless they become a dominant team and begin to sell out. If they can afford it Heyward is the best solution (MLBTR 10/200) , with a fall back of Cespedes (MLBTR 6/140) instead of Span. How can they not afford to do this because a non playoff position would be financially devastating to the ownership.
So what would your plan be?
While Theo Epstein is working at building a champion in Chicago, Alderson & Co. are busy running a business. I don’t see Conforto as a #3 hitter yet, I don’t like Herrera as our starting 2B and our defense is little league. Pitching alone won’t win it, and our window is 3 years to win a championship with this staff. I was on the fence about Zobrist, but i am convinced the lineup as it looks today, i have to agree with Chris F is barely .500. That does not spell anything remotely close to winning a championship at any level.
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+1
Apologies for the capitals in my post
Very happy that you are reading and commenting and look forward to seeing more of your comments in the future.
In past years I mentioned that the candle is burning from both ends for a window to win. For the Mets, despite all the hopes of Alderson’s planning, we have from 2016-2018 to be legit contenders. Our Fab Four will command a cumulative 1B$ in FA. We will not hold any of them as FAs. This is our time. Each move should be made to win now.
However, as I see it, the plan seems to be, play 2 months, play the next two months with interest in seeing if there is hope, make some moves as needed and play the last two months as possible contenders. It breaks my heart.
I do try to keep telling myself that no one raises a flag for winning the off season.
I think your middle graph is a sensible plan. Certainly pushing all of the chips to the middle of the table by March didn’t work out too well for the Padres last year. Padres fans would trade place with Mets fans in a heartbeat, both with what happened in 2015 and what’s likely to happen in the immediate future.
There are certain things that need to be done now. I think it would be irresponsible not to have a Kelly Johnson/Juan Uribe type on the Opening Day roster ready to fill in for a potential DL stint for Wright. I’d also like to see a bullpen guy but that’s not quite at the same level of urgency for me.
Well said! You hit the proverbial nail squarely on the head. The question now is will the Mets get all of this done so the Mets are ready to start winning on a consistent enough basis to get back to the World Series again in 2016? In the meantime, patient and expectant Mets fans everywhere continue to wait and watch. Lets Go Mets!
Yeah, there’s plenty of time to get everything on the shopping list. If February rolls around and it’s not done – that will be the appropriate time to worry.
Ian Desmond fixes everything.
2012 Ian Desmond fixes everything.
I don’t want any part of last year’s version who put up a .233/.290/.384 line
I understand the thinking based on a pathetic all around 2015, but if he had his normal numbers, the Mets couldn’t afford him.
’11: .253/.298/.358 | 1st half: .223/.264/.308 | 2nd half: .289/.338/.417
’12: .292/.335/.511 | 1st half: .285/.316/.515 | 2nd half: .308/.371/.503
’13: .280/.331/.453 | 1st half: .281/.328/.486 | 2nd half: .279/.335/.406
’14: .255/.313/.430 | 1st half: .243/.294/.432 | 2nd half: .272/.341/.427
’15: .233/.290/.384 | 1st half: .211/.255/.334 | 2nd half: .262/.331/.446
There seems to have beed a corner turned in late 2011 that has either regressing every year or effected by bad starts these last two years. Further, let’s take a look at the last three years of some free agent outfielders:
Upton:
2013: .263/.354/.464
2014: .270/.342/.491
2015: .251/.336/.454 (First player ever to hit two HR to CF in Petco)
Heyward:
2013: .254/.349/.427
2014: .271/.351/.384
2015: .293/.359/.439
Cespedes:
2013: .240/.294/.442
2014: .260/.301/.450
2015: .291/.328/.542
My point is that as a middle infielder, Desmond matches up very well with outfielders expected to get much more money. Desmond would probably take the same contract that Zobrist just got and he is five years younger than Zobrist, has more power than Zobrist, and had a down year defensively as Zobrist did after a strong showing for all his years previously.
Strike that last sentence.
Desmond’s error totals:
2011: 23
2012: 15
2013: 20
2014: 24
2015: 27
Career fielding percentage: .962 (-1.3 UZR rating, with -3.7 in 2015)
Zobrist has had much less time at 2B, but his fielding percentage is .987 (8.2 UZR) and a .967 fielding percentage at SS (-1.9 U
ZR).
All things considered, I think the Mets would get a better ROI on Desmond.
There’s a lot to reply to here so to make it simple, I’m going to ignore the comparisons to outfielders because personally, I don’t find it relative.
Perhaps the only reason the Mets could afford Desmond is because he had a crappy year. I grant you that. But I’m not interested in extending a long-term contract to a guy whose numbers have declined three straight years. If he was willing to sign a one-year deal, perhaps I’d be interested. But with the middle infield talent in the system, I can’t see the point of giving a four-year deal to a guy who hit worse than Ruben Tejada last year.
FWIW, Steamer projects him to have a year virtually identical to what happened in 2015. Marcel is slightly more optimistic but less so than it is for Dilson Herrera.
What do you think Desmond’s normal numbers are? He’s been all over the map but his career averages are: .264/.312/.424 and that’s essentially what Wilmer Flores did last year. He’s better defensively than Flores but Desmond’s numbers on defense have taken a tumble the past two years, too.
I’m no Flores backer but at this point in time, I see as much reason to expect a .750 OPS from Flores as I do Desmond. And I wouldn’t pay either one of them Zobrist money.