Hey you smell something funky? Yeah, me too. Did you hear the Mets signed Asdrubal Cabrera to a two-year deal? So that’s what $18.5 million being burnt smells like! Good to know.
Cabrera is a solid player and has been for a number of years. He’s more than a placeholder but he’s not a star. He falls into that gray area and it’s difficult to say what makes a good deal as far as he’s concerned. He was really good in 2011, solid in 2012, poor in both 2013 and 2014 and back to solid in 2015.
Now, you may look at that progression and go – WTF should we expect from him in 2016? Beats me. But hey, he’s a veteran so that’s what really counts. If he’s solid, you go, well that’s what we expect from a vet! If he turns back time to 2011, you pat yourself on the back and say you’re not surprised because he’s a veteran. And if he repeats 2013 or 2014 and is a below-average player? Well, how could you expect that — he’s a veteran!
There’s a wide range of outcomes in play and essentially the Mets are rolling the dice hoping that he’s closer to the guy he was in the second half of 2015 (.916 OPS) rather than the guy from the first half (.627 OPS). He had 100 more PA in the first half and his second half BABIP was .348 which certainly didn’t hurt.
When he was really good in 2011, he had a .344 BABIP. When he was less than that in 2013 and 2014, he had .307 and .308 BABIPs, respectively.
He’s got some pop for a middle infielder but he’s not really a good shortstop. He somewhat looks like a shortstop, so maybe that’s worth something. It will be curious to see how this shakes out if they don’t make any more moves. Neil Walker will start most of the time at 2B and with this deal, you’d have to expect Cabrera to start at short. And that would relegate Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada to the bench, effectively making Flores the insurance guy for David Wright.
The last two years, Cabrera has combined for 3.9 fWAR. If he comes close to that he’s easily worth the contract. So, in a way it’s harsh to say the Mets are burning money by signing him.
But does he give you anything substantially more than Flores? They both have similar power, they’re both negatives on defense. Cabrera walks a tiny bit more, has a touch more speed and is more likely to have a good BABIP year. It’s an advantage but is it a $9 million per year one?
For this deal to make sense, they have to package Flores for something else. It’s hard to see how the combination of Cabrera-Flores exceeds that of Flores-Kelly Johnson (or Juan Uribe, if you prefer) and the latter combination would likely cost half as much.
Somebody explain to me why it was a good idea to hand Flores the starting shortstop job in 2015 (when he was that awful, horrible untested guy) but when he goes out and exactly meets expectations – FanGraphs’ Depth Charts projected him for a .706 OPS and he delivered a .703 mark – you pay $9 million to replace him — with an older version of the exact same player?
Which one is worth minimum wage?
Player A — .251/.309/.412
Player B — .262/.302/.408
Those are the projections for Cabrera and Flores on B-R.
So, if you need me, look in the corner for the guy waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Remember I called this a few days ago Brian!
And the view out of Tampa Bay:
http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/good-fit-looks-likely-to-split/2247867
OK. I’ll play along here. Let’s really get the think tank working.
Suppose Marcel is some kind of god and gets the triple slash line next year. How much worse would Flores have to be in order to justify the spending?
Or. Let’s suppose that by magic Flores actually achieves that triple slash line (.300+ OBP, yea right!). How much better does Cabrera have to justify.
And while we are spitting around projection, Tejada is forecasted for .247/.328/.349. Raw OPS is much lower than those 2, but OPS+ and wRC would probably be within 5 points.
And well, at the very least we aren’t paying 4 years and 41 million plus giving up a useful pitcher for a guy who also is projected for around a 700 OPS. Now that is a true travesty.
It’s been a long day and I’m tired — but I honestly cannot make heads or tails of your post.
Why is it so unlikely for Flores, who had a .295 OBP last year, to have a .302 mark this year?
Are you for or against this signing?
What does your last graph mean?
The overall basis of your argument is that Cabrera is good, but he’s very similar to Flores and not worth the extra 9 million.
So i would like to know what kind of player would be worth an extra 9 mil? A guy who is projected for a 750 OPS? But if there was someone who was capable of doing that, then that would likely make him a top 5 offensive shortstop, and there’s no way he would go for as little as 9 mil, let’s say for 15 mil. But wait, we just established that 750 OPS is worth 9 mil, so for 15 mil he would have to have a 775 OPS. But of course if he could do that he would be getting 20 mil… etc…
To me, that sounds like a circular argument that ends up saying no option (at least FA wise) is better than Flores, assuming you buy into that projection line. Is that really what you think?
I’m pretty indifferent towards the deal. I would probably flip a coin to decide. If you held a gun to my face i’d probably say yes.
Oh, and the last line was a dig at Castro. You could literally re-write this article word for word and replace Cabrera with Castro. Yet people were clamoring to trade for him (and still are)
Thanks for the clarification.
I think that’s pretty close to what I’m saying. I think looking for an upgrade at SS is a good idea but that upgrade wasn’t available on the FA market this year. Could Cabrera or Desmond end up better than Flores? That’s certainly possible but I wouldn’t call the chance even money to happen, much less a slam dunk. Whatever chance that Cabrera provides a meaningful upgrade over Flores wasn’t worth the extra money for a team that needs to count pennies.
It just further points out the ridiculousness of not getting Escobar last year, which actually would have saved them money in 2015 and the two years of Cabrera’s contract.
So instead of Zobrist/Castro, they wind up with Cabrera/Walker. Unless they have something up their sleeves here, I am not a fan of these moves at all, and would probably even prefer Flores/Murphy again.
I like the signing because it provides another versatile glove (albeit average), legit bat, and gives the team quality depth. The latter is imporant because of the ongoing uncertainty with Wright. Still think Wilmer will play a big role in the offense this year tho.
Injuries early in the season next year hopefully will not sting as much as early 2015
I totally agree that Cabrera and flores are similar players.. the only reason for signing Cabrera would be if Flores was on the move.. Possibly flores packaged with a Pitcher gets the mets a top tier OF?
Two switch hitting middle infielders with questionable range…mehh…Neise for Walker is a wash…No one will notice he’s gone. Murphy, though, will be missed for the clutch bat, but not so much for the bubble brain on the basepaths. Cabrera is a crapshoot. It’s a nine million dollar gamble. If he is competent and hits for OBP, then its money well spent. Relegating Flores to back up makes sense if Wright is damaged goods and Flores is the cavalry coming over the hill. I am simply happy there is some money left in the mattress for re-signing Cespedes when his market fails to materialize. I know…tell me I’m dreaming. But a man has to have his straw to clutch. Sign Kelly Johnson and we have met our “contact high” for the season. Personally, I think we are selling short on Lagares, he may surprise us all.
Lets see if we get Jake Cave in the Rule 5 draft today.
Maybe having two SS options coming off broken bones didn’t really sit well so they signed one. In that article link, Longoria and Archer both praise Cabrera.
By the way: Does anyone know if we give up a draft pick for him?
Cabrera did not get a QO. I saw an interview with TC last night and the club is deeply concerned with Flores broken ankle and Tejada leg, saying lower leg breaks can be especially troubling at SS. I think this was a reaction to Flores down for months now. He was gonna be the guy, but the ankle changed everything
Why non-tender Tejada? Does this mean they will flip Flores? Or that they are done. No Johnson, no Uribe?
Hard to see any reason why Tejada gets on the field.
Cabrera should be an interesting defensive shortstop, eye-test vs. stats.
I agree with Brian that this deal suggests that another deal must be coming behind it. It doesn’t make a ton of sense to have Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada on the bench and completely block the progression of Dilson Herrera.
Lost in this discussion is Gavin Cecchini, who could have been a dark horse shortstop for the 2016 Mets. It won’t hurt him to go to AAA, so that’s minor stuff.
As much as I liked the Neil Walker deal… I don’t understand this one. The Mets still have a gaping hole waiting for a power right-handed bat in the middle of their lineup and they still lack a legitimate leadoff hitter.
My whacky idea is that the Padres might be the match as they could trade Kemp to the Mets and might look at Flores to fill Gyorko’s vacancy. The Mets would need another $6-10 Mil of Kemp’s contract paid.
I think you’re onto something Dave. I heard Ricco talking about the SS depth in the organization so Cabrera is just a placeholder till Cecchini or Rosario are ready. Don’t think they look at Flores as a SS anymore, too mechanical Lke you I think they’ll do something for a bat. Stay tuned.
Cabrera in his worst years is equivalent to Flojada in their best years. He is a switch hitter, only 30 years old, and consistently averages 15 home runs a year. He is defensively weak SS but he makes the the routine play (97.3 %) better than Flores (94.9 %) and equal to Tejada (97.0 %). Cabrera is an upgrade in a limited shortstop market at a reasonable salary and contract length.
Walker is a better all round player than Murphy. The team improved at two positions, offensively and defensively, at a minimal expenditure. The line up is lengthened , two switch hitters were added for versatility, no long term salary commitments, and the bench is stronger. It wasn’t flashy but it was solid baseball moves. Now they should sign Heyward or Cespedes for some flash!
As usual, a well-reasoned opinion.
The Mets may be adding to the roster for the near future with an eye on possible trades down the line. The cost for a top SS is probably too prohibitive.
The flash of signing Heyward or Cespedes might be a pipe dream, but that’s the beauty of the off- season. Personally, I’d love Heyward.
+1
Tejada is the guy who makes no sense to me at this point, especially at $2.5 million. How does he even get into a game? Unless they move Flores, which would also make no sense to me.
This may be an “Unfinished Roster”….but it is a Major League Roster. The Roster during the first 1/4 to 1/2 of last season had Danny Muno, John Mayberry Jr., Eric Campbell…. The starting point for 2016 is Major Leaguers in the lineup and on the bench.
The problem with some people is they have no patience. Many fans completely dismiss players coming up through the farm and want instant solutions. I understand that the Mets still have financial constraint so their overriding strategy is more conservative than some. but I do think. that once that changes they will tend to be somewhat conservative.in free agency. Most succesful franchises have a more organizational approach.Most fans think winning the off-saeson is an indication of season success. Very often it’s not.
Either another shoe is gonna drop or else an injury is more serious than they’re letting on