The Mets’ offseason appears to be done now with the signing of Alejandro De Aza to be a platoon center fielder. It seems eminently fair to say that the fan base is less than thrilled with this signing in particular and the offseason in general. As for me, this move is fine in isolation, much like every other move executed this offseason. But somehow the whole is less than the sum of its parts and the most disturbing thing is a continuing pattern of paying a premium for veteran outsiders instead of giving a chance to people from your own system.
Perhaps De Aza will turn back the clock to 2012, when he had a .281/.349/.410 line. Or maybe he will replicate his career line versus RHP, whom he’s hit to a .274/.338/.418 tune. We just hope he does better than other Sandy Alderson imports to play the outfield. We think about Michael Cuddyer and both the money and first-round pick the club forfeited for a replacement player. Or John Mayberry Jr. and his (-0.3) fWAR for the Mets last year. Or Chris Young and his (-0.7) fWAR. Or Bobby Abreu and his (-0.4) mark. Or Rick Ankiel and his (-0.2) rate. That’s enough to make Andres Torres and his 1.4 fWAR look like a stud.
Let’s look at some projections for De Aza. Here are the two that are available right now:
Marcel – .256/.319/.399
Steamer – .255/.317/.389
They both forecast the exact same player. That guy is a below-average center fielder but one likely to be worth his $5.75 million base salary. It’s not an exciting move but it’s one that in isolation which is not really a problem.
The issue is that they are paying 10 times what they would pay for someone from within their own system and they’re not going to get 10 times the production. Kirk Nieuwenhuis has a Steamer projection of an 88 wRC+ compared to the 93 wRC+ for De Aza. And it’s likely that Nieuwenhuis is a better defensive center fielder than De Aza.
Or how about these projections?
Marcel – .250/.321/.389
Steamer – .261/.317/.399 (95 wRC+)
Those are the forecasts for Matt den Dekker, who also is likely a better defensive CFer than De Aza. But the Mets are so unbelievably reluctant to give their own guys a shot that they’d rather pay a hefty premium, in this case 10 times the amount, than consider an in-house option. It would be one thing if money wasn’t an option. But clearly there’s a large amount of attention paid to the bottom line. Still, here’s the reality:
There’s roughly $5 million more being paid to a platoon CF to avoid playing Nieuwenhuis
There’s roughly $10 million more being paid at 2B to avoid playing Dilson Herrera
There’s roughly $7.75 million more being paid at SS to avoid playing Wilmer Flores
There’s roughly 6.75 million more being paid at SP to avoid playing Logan Verrett
That’s roughly $29.5 million that could be allocated elsewhere and that’s not even taking into account the contracts given to Addison Reed and Jerry Blevins in the bullpen which could be used for other purposes. That’s how much the Mets are paying, in 2016 alone, to avoid giving a shot to guys from their system.
One can argue that no one knows the young guys who grew up in the system better than the Mets, so if they saw fit to give the jobs to someone else, we should trust their judgment. Yet these are the same people who gave money and playing times to the outfielders listed in the second paragraph, so why should the fans give them a rubber stamp of approval on their player evaluation skills? At this point, I place more trust in the computer forecasts than this front office when it comes to picking players for the major league roster.
It’s reasonable to believe that the combination of Asdrubal Cabrera, Bartolo Colon, De Aza and Neil Walker would out-produce the combination of Flores, Herrera, Nieuwenhuis and Verrett. But is it reasonable to think that the four veterans would be better than the four farm system guys and a big bat, let’s say Jason Heyward? Because that’s what the Mets are saying with their actions.
The counter may be that the salaries from the real additions are only for one or two years while the salary for a Heyward would be eight or so years. That’s true enough. But why should we believe that the team won’t continue to import higher salary veterans rather than play minimum wage guys from their farm system?
We’ve seen Alderson bring in Cuddyer rather than give den Dekker a shot. The money alone made that a bad choice but the forfeiture of a draft pick made it a disaster. And because they sent den Dekker packing, they had to shell out additional money to acquire an older guy for this year. And in 2017 they’ll be in the same boat, unless they’re willing to give Brandon Nimmo a shot. Lather, rinse, repeat with veteran one or two-year stop-gaps that don’t work.
But we’re supposed to feel good because it’s a short-term deal that doesn’t go past the $100 million boogeyman. Maybe you don’t give an 8-year, $138 million deal for a guy entering his age 30 season. But you can give that length to a guy coming into his age 26 season. But wait, Alderson did give out the former contract and balked at the latter.
We all know that the owners are drowning in a sea of debt and will not carry a New York payroll. The reaction from fans is that somehow that the Wilpons are morally obligated to sell the team if they don’t have a payroll equivalent to the Yankees. That argument makes no sense to me. Instead of blasting them for not carrying a big payroll, blast them and their management team for not doing a better job of allocating their available budget.
When you stop paying $29 million to replicate what’s already on hand and stop shelling out $4 million for a LOOGY to pitch 35 innings, you’ll be amazed at what you can afford. All you have to do is show faith in guys that come from your system and aren’t on the wrong side of 30. Not every youngster is going to turn out the way that you hoped. Not every veteran does, either. For every Marlon Byrd veteran acquisition that we can celebrate, there are too many Cuddyer, Mayberry, Young, Abreu, Ankiel and Torres ones to make us retch.
Yet somehow it’s the young guys we’re not supposed to trust.
If I’m trying to view this offseason through “Rose Colored Glasses” here’s the list of silver linings:
Wilmer Flores will see time at 3rd Base (because Wright will need frequent rest) and 1st Base (because Duda isn’t great against lefties). We may also see Travis d’Arnaud starting at 1st.
Dilson Herrera and Gavin Cecchini can display their chops as a tandem in AAA and Neil Walker will only be a Met for 2016. This means one of the two will step up into the role next season.
Alejandro De Aza’s contract isn’t so huge that Brandon Nimmo/Kirk Nieuwenhuis couldn’t steal back the starting job from him. The Met lineup still lacks a middle of the order righty, which is awful, but with their commitment to making something out of Lagares’ contract, they aren’t committing much to the position.
Asdrubal Cabrera wasn’t a “needed” signing but his versatility maintains his value even if he gets downgraded to a bench role.
The long and short of the failure this offseason has been the teams reluctance to spend money in the short-term. The payroll ended at $120 Mil and our payroll has now dropped to $105 Mil. I anticipate 1-2 small RP signings still to come but this offseason has seen the Mets become a weaker team than they were at the end of 2015.
We all wish that the club would adopt the “spend money to make money” motto that JP outlined elsewhere.
But since we know that’s not going to happen, we should look to get the most bang for the buck. And my take is that the FO failed miserably in this regard. And it didn’t have to be Cespedes/Heyward/Upton or bust. They could have used the “spread the money around” approach and not focused so much on areas where there was a decent option.
They could have gone for a super high end 8th inning guy, paid the freight for a better CF than De Aza and signed a KJ/Uribe type to provide infield protection instead of going all in on Heyward.
Instead they looked to cover themselves with “safe” options. Maybe that’s the new M.O. — go safe in the offseason and bold at the trade deadline. I guess we’ll see.
I totally agree, Brian. There are many ways to skin the cat. They could have left SS alone. Signed a Gee-type for the 5th spot, a Harang-type, and then spent on CF and bullpen. Sandy had flexibility this year and money to spend.
He refuses to compete for any player, ever. I imagine him going to a HS dance. He looks at all the prettiest, most attractive girls and thinks, “too much competition.” So he sits a girl sitting alone, looking glum, and asks her to marry him.
James, wouldn’t you think that Alderson would enjoy the view from the top and sell it to the free agents while he goes after the best one?
“Bold at the trade deadline” is a miserable strategy. It’s incredibly rare that you ever underpay. It’s usually a sign that the FO can’t figure out what they’ve got during the offseason, which is always a bad sign. Furthermore, it means you’ve forfeited the value of a player towards the postseason by not getting him for April, May, June, and sometimes July. It’s not the poor man’s strategy, it’s the cheap man’s strategy; the timid man’s strategy.
And I hate it.
Merry Christmas.
Matt den Dekker was traded to the Nationals a year ago…
Good god man – are you really that dense?!?
He was a youngster that they wouldn’t play last year, a point in evidence that this refusal to play young guys is not something new.
Den Dekker put up 0.6 WAR in all of 110 PAs. Good move, Sandy! (sighs)
A very valid and strong point of view.
Cespedes (or Heyward) should have been the signing this year and Lagares should be the 4th outfielder. The World Series and revenue increase should have made this affordable. It would have put the Mets in the middle of the major league team salary structure. It wasn’t an unreasonable expectation.
The Mets, as defending National League Champions, should attempt to keep improving and stabilizing the roster. This may have to be at the expense of some young players. Cabrera is better than Flojada. Walker is more stable than Herrera.
Colon is more reliable than Verrett, Montero or Gilmartin. Blevins is more reliable than Edgins. The young players will serve as depth and when given the chance must step up and prove their worth. Adding these veterans did not blow the Mets budget and it added depth. Signing DeAza instead of Cespedes or Heyward was the mistake. The Wilpon’s unwillingness to take on a reasonable middle of the pack salary level is an indication that they can not afford this team. Unfortunately for the fanbase we are stuck with them.
Nailed it. Brian and Metsense. I can live with the infield. The outfield infuriates me. DeAza is not worth the money we gave him and not a strong enough player to be a platoon CF/4th OF. In that role he’ll be in the lineup most games and he’s not even replacement level. This is where the team screwed up. The obvious play was either Cespedes or Span but this team is just too cheap and short sighted. Much better offseason if you’re a Cubs or Giants fan.
Lagares out hit Cespedes after 8/1 through the post season. And he hit top pitchers, while Cespedes was dominated post season, only doing well in the Alex Wood game, and the Hendricks games, going 6 for 10, but they’re #3 and 4 starters. Vs the others, he was 6 for 44, pretty dismal. And his hit v Kershaw in game 4, was a 30′,swinging bunt. Heyward? Murph had a higher slugging percentage during the season. He’s overrated. If 13 hrs and 60 rbis is a ‘big bat’, I’m Santa Claus.
Disagree Metsense with your assessment of the Colon signing. Every single team in MLB will give a youngster a chance at the #5 spot in the rotation if he shows some potential. With Wheeler coming back in July, that means the #5 spot may make about 15 starts until then. You mean that Verrett, Gilmartin and maybe Montero don’t deserve a look at those starts? What is it with Alderson and his brain farts when it comes to signing free agents? He treats the process like its a nuisance to him.
“Cabrera is better than Flojada.”
Saying nothing, really. He’s a 1 win player, at 8.5m a year. That’s wretched.
“Walker is more stable than Herrera.”
With less upside, and given Herrera’s MLEs and durability in the minors, Walker’s not even more stable.
“Colon is more reliable than Verrett, Montero or Gilmartin.”
Yet nowhere near as reliable (at age 43 and carrying 300 lbs) as Jon Niese. Heck, given Verrett’s durability over his career, I’d take him as the starter on the back end over Colon at this stage of The Fat Man’s career.
What a dreadful, dreadful offseason.
de Aza was not the household name that we wanted, but lets remember it is still only December. Sandy proved last year that if the Mets stay close he has the ability to pull the trigger and complete the team.
I believe that we still have at least one more bat coming – likely a right handed bat to play against tough lefties. I also see de Aza as just a placeholder until Nimmo get a full year of AAA under his belt.
Unfortunately, there are no cheap productive players in this market and while no one will admit it the FO will not commit to the kind of contract Cespedes demands in this market. As long as the David Wright contract is around the Wilpons throats they will not commit to those years and dollars again.
I just hope they do so when our billion dollar rotation is ready to get paid the Wilpons open up their wallets.
I think that may be an optimistic reading of the situation.
Last year Alderson had money due to the insurance on Wright’s contract and, to a lesser extent, the suspension of Mejia. Would the Wilpons have signed off on adding payroll without those two cases? Maybe, but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk.
These Metsecutives got the club to a World Series, so we have to cut them some slack. The consensus among the baseball professionals and most fans is that Herrera is a year away, so they went out and got a real second baseman for one year with a decent bat and some pop, and with whom Flores can platoon. While Wilmer became a fan favorite and still has potential, he has not excelled at a specific position, especially SS, where he is barely competent. Additionally, Cecchini and a couple of others are at least a year away, so they went out and got a real SS who has played the position at an above average major league level, switch-hits nicely, has some pop and a little speed. They need a left-handed hitting OF who can play some CF and they opted for De Aza over Nieuwenhuis. who has many attributes, but fails to get on-base at even a .300 clip. They needed a LOGGY and re-signed Blevins, who is a real pro when he keeps his arm from breaking and watches his step. They need a placeholder until Wheeler returns or Montero makes a splash and they re-signed Bartolo. Now, all they have to do is sign Matt Albers and Ryan Raburn and this is a much better team than what they took to the starting line last year and they can sort things out in late July. Oh ye faithful, show some faith.
I’m really taken aback by the angst shown at De Aza’s signing. Prior to that the Mets FO was being lauded for the moves they made in the infield, and resigning Colon and Blevins.
I agree that we need to cut the FO some slack after the incredible job they did last year. Is De Aza better than Captain Kirk? Yes. Did the Mets give the Captain sufficient time to prove himself? Yes. Was Conforto a terrific draft? Yes. Did they assemble a tremendous pitching staff (some inherited)? Yes. Was the move to trade RA a good (now dynamite) one? Yes.
At the bottom of all this, which I agree with, is that Sandy should not be forced to operate under such tight financial restraints. Particularly not after the extra money the Mets made by going to the WS. That is the problem and the Mets FO has been brilliant in dealing with finances.
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“The consensus among the baseball professionals and most fans is that Herrera is a year away,…”
Your simply making things up. Herrera hit far better than his league, and is abundantly ready. Teams drool at the opportunity to get guys this young into the majors.
Furthermore, the Mets gave up a solid, league average starter capable of 25 starts a year in Jon Niese (plus two cheap option years, adding substantial value to his contract) in order to 1) give Niese’s money to the fat and ancient Bartolo Colon, and 2) fill the wrong IF position! They have a budding star ready for the majors to play 2B, so they block him while doing almost nothing to close the wound at short. Amazing. Truly amazing.
The Mets have a real hole at SS, so they gave 8.5m a year for two years plus an option to Cabrera, a 1 win player on the wrong end of the aging curve.
Oh, and there’s zero chance the Mets will platoon Flores with Walker. What can you possibly be thinking? Or smoking?
What they’re thinking is that if they delay the service time clock, then they can delay free agency longer into his prime years. I mean, don’t all top prospects spend three years in AAA?
First of all it’s $29M for 1 year, not $150M for 6 years. I don’t get it.. you criticize front office for not spending and then you criticize them for spending, just not on the player you want. Oh that’s it.. now I get it.
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I’m pretty sure if you read the piece carefully at all, I addressed the one year versus multiple year thing.
Yes, it’s pretty clear that the front office spent money in a less than desirable way. What’s wrong with saying that? The whole purpose of this blog is to praise things that are praise-worthy and criticize things that aren’t. If all you want is a yes-man for the manager or GM then this is not the place for you.
Nice article Brian. Wish it was longer, you were just getting warmed up!
Thanks for the kind words!
It is still reasonable that the Mets can put a big package together for Cargo that could include Lagares, Tejada, Montero or Verritt and another lower pitching prospect. That would be the big bat. No way we part with any of the big 5 that includes Wheeler. We are not the Royals who could steal you blind. Without another big bopper we will not even win a wildcard given the NL central teams.
I don’t believe either Cargo or Granny are fit for full-season CF duty.
The overreliance on projection systems is going to be your downfall, especially the Marcels which is utter crap.
.256/.318/.400 – That’s the projection for Wilfredo Tovar
Omar Infante and his .552 OPS last year? Marcel is predicting .646 OPS this year.
Harper, Miggy, Votto – all hit over 1.000 OPS or higher and Marcel is prediction none of them to crack the 950 mark.
Jean segura and his .615 OPS in the past 2 years? Let’s jump him to .674 next year.
The lack of disperion is quite laughable. It’s simply a weighted average. If you pick 10 players at random, you’ll probably find that 7-8 are going to have an OPS in the 700-740 range. It’s pretty hard to find a player who they are predicting to have an OPS under .650, and ditto on the opposite end. There’s no value in a projection system that think that 70% of all players are going to be the same.
They don’t call it Marcel “the monkey” for nothing, it’s a complete joke and even its developer Tom Tango think it’s complete junk.
Let’s move on the steamer, which is a bit more realistic.
I don’t know if you had a typo or Steamer updated de aza’s projections post trade, but they are projecting him for a career low 88 wRC since he became a regular. In the prior 4 seasons, he hadn’t posted a wRC lower than 96. I’d easily take the higher odds on that projection.
Kirk and Mdd? They are forecasting them to have <200 PA. You are making an incorrect assumption that rate stats over ~100 PA will translate into the same thing if you expand to 400 PA. If given the chance to forecast those player with more PA, i'm sure that the rate stats would not be as high.
Neil Walker vs Dilson Herrera? Let's not put the Steamer projection for Herrera because it doesn't support your argument.
In the end, you've got some valid points, but the way you are attempting to prove your point holds little weight.
Marcel is a simple weighted average, as you noted. You are free to dismiss out of hand but they are more accurate than you believe and certainly better than just making something up. Here are 2014 numbers (couldn’t find 2015, and this article came out end of December in ’14)
Overall
System Mean
Actual 0.0000
ZIPS 0.0274
Steamer 0.0277
PECOTA 0.0279
Oliver 0.0280
Marcel 0.0289
The projection systems all did pretty well and, as usual, are relatively close together. ZiPS takes home the crown with the lowest mean absolute error. While Marcel comes in last, the result demonstrates Marcel’s original intended purpose; it shows us that a simple projection system will get us most of the way there in the aggregate.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/evaluating-the-2014-projection-systems/
The playing time projections are based on what’s happened before with similar players, not necessarily a judgment on true talent level. Your pal Nieuwenhuis would do fine if his extra PA came against RHP. I don’t believe MDD would be exploited by extra playing time — I think he would greatly benefit from it.
Walker’s projections are significantly better than Herrera’s, as they should be. If they both played a full season against all types of pitching, my guess is that Herrera would exceed his and Walker would under-perform his. Walker needs to be a platoon player and will be an asset if used in that way. I’m not happy that he’s blocking Herrera but that’s due to wanting The Dilson to get his shot, rather than thinking that Walker is a bum.
And I completely stand behind the idea that I’d rather pay Herrera minimum wage than pay Walker the nearly $11 million he’s expected to get in arbitration. Whatever edge Walker has offensively, he’s going to be a lot worse defensively.
If Sandy would of said, Herrera, is my 2nd baseman, all media outlet, would of killed Sandy. Now that he signed a 2nd basement to bridge the gap, all of you are killing the man still. You do not know, what you want, or what is best for this team. No wonder, some of you, I cannot say all of you, are not the GM
Would have not would of.
I don’t care what the mainstream media says or does. I care that Alderson makes moves that push the team forward. My opinion is that the moves he’s made this offseason so far do not do that. We shall see.
Like usual, just looking to plug a hole regardless of the quality of the plug.
What you’re doing, DimC, is engaging in a peculiar sort of hypothetical, then damning the very nonsense you yourself just made up.
Surely you see that?
I think this is the second time you’ve tried referring me to this article to prove projection system’s accuracy.
How is .027 mean error good at all?
That was the difference between Juan Lagares and Michael Cuddyer. How is there any accuracy in that?
For breakout players, the mean error is nearly .040. That was difference between Juan Lagares and Daniel Murphy. And that’s on average which means a good chunk are even worse than that.
I took a list of all players with 200+ PA in 2014, sorted them by wOBA, and then chopped off the top 10% and bottom 10% of that list.
80% of the players’ wOBA fell between .271 and .363. That’s a range of .092. Which is why errors of .026 and .040 are absolute crap.
You’re wrong. You, me, most educated fans, could probably do just as well or even better than most projections systems. Their value lies mostly because they can do it for every player, while as humans we can probably only do a handful. I think if you did some sort of verication with the Mets360 projections you do every year, you’ll find that the majority of our writers do better than the projection systems.
Projection systems are crap.
Look deeper into the article. It breaks down the forecasts for three types – rookies, middlers and veterans. For rookies the actual wOBA was (rounding to three digits) .291 while Steamer had .298 and Marcel had .307
For middlers (300-1800 PA)
A – .313
S – .309
M – .310
For veterans (1800+ PA)
A – .322
S – .323
M – .320
If you think you can get within .002 or .003 points on a group wOBA forecast – I’m pretty sure I know who’s full of crap. Here’s the formula for wOBA
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/
Make your predictions for Duda, Granderson, Tejada, Wright (veterans) and Nieuwenhuis (since you know him),Flores, Lagares and d’Arnaud for middlers and post them and let’s see how you do.
Uhhh… stats 101 refresher.
I predict player A wOBA of .200
I predict player B wOBA of .300
Assuming equal PAs, their predicted average wOBA is .250
Player A actual wOBA is .300
Player B actual wOBA is .200
Actual average wOBA is .250, which is the same as is the predicted average.
However, the Absolute Mean error is .100, which is what is important. You want to know on average how much each individual forecast was off by. If the average error is like the gap between Lagares-Cuddyer or Tejada-Murphy, you can’t honestly believe there’s any accuracy in that.
Like i said, the average error is crap. It’s basically like saying to choose a number between 1 and 100, and getting it within 20 is considered correct.
Stop treating projection systems as holy objects
Edit: While I think you took the conversation in a poor direction, there was no reason for me to up the ante with the response I did.
You want a level of precision that is, in my estimation, ridiculous. If we could predict the individual forecasts at the degree you desire, there would be no need to play the actual games.
In your last reasonable post, you stated that you could produce predictions as good, if not better, than the Steamer/Marcel predictions. I invited you to do just that. We’ll judge your predictions against the computer models however you wish.
I use the forecasts because they’re the best freely available ones we have. If you provide me with something better, I’ll be happy to use them.
I have nothing against the projection models. Rather, i have issues with your interpretation of the forecasts. You seem to think they are better than what an informed fan could do, and i dispute that. And while i was hoping you would been believed me after my rebuttal of the other article, i finally crunched some real numbers using your yearly projections to prove it.
I used the data from 2014 and 2015 (in 2013 you didn’t include projection data and i don’t know where to find old ones, plus, it was the first year you did it and there’s probably a learning curve) and did a crude analysis on hitter’s OPS. I compared actual with your individual projection,Mets360 group projection, Steamer and Zips.
Here are the results:
EDIT: the html table wasn’t working.
Here is the summarized data:
Joura Error: 0.051 OPS
Mets360 Error : 0.057 OPS
Steamer Error: 0.053 OPS
ZIPS error: 0.050
Well, would you look at that. All 4 projection attempts were remarkably close (if you only look at 2015, your individual projection was actually by far the best Wright and Lagares in 2014 really brought down your overall average). That can mean one of two things.
1. Since projection systems are godly, and you were close to their error, you are also a god
2. Since you are a measly human who is doing nothing more than educated guessing, so are the projection systems.
Either way, they are most certainly not materially better than what your or I could do, which is the crux of the issue here and really, your only final defense for the models.
They are free, and they are available for nearly every player, so there is some use for them, but at least treat them like (insert fan/analyst here) said them instead of treating like it’s holy
Marcel is a quality forecasting system that gets you most of the way there. I’ve never said otherwise.
“That’s roughly $29.5 million that could be allocated elsewhere and that’s not even taking into account the contracts given to Addison Reed and Jerry Blevins in the bullpen which could be used for other purposes.”
Excellent summary, unfortunately.
In addition, to get Neil Walker the Mets got rid of Jon Niese, whose 10m salary isn’t much more than the 7.5m they agreed to pay the oldest, fattest pitcher in the majors. The chance of a collapse from Colon more than makes up for the difference between his and Niese’s salary.
Furthermore, with all pitchers there’s injury risk. It’s amazing how often a club winds up giving 25 starts to the guy they had pencilled in as their number 7 starter on April 3rd. On a borderline contender like the Mets, ownership shouldn’t be farting around with marginal wins, but that’s exactly what they’re doing.
But wait, it gets worse. WTH was the Asdrubal Cabrera signing about? The Mets decided to pay 8.5m a year for two years plus an option to a SS who is worth about 1 win a year AND who’s turning 30. The bottom falls out for these guys all the time. It’s the only signing, really, that would make me want to see Wilmer Flores take another turn at SS for the Mets.
Somehow, with no big signings to make, the Mets actually managed to get worse so far this offseason. As you implied, this is exactly the sort of piecemeal nonsense a bad FO puts together in lieu of a plan. What can Alderson possibly be thinking?
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I see the Mets situation and would offer a different title:
“Mets pay minimum to avoid playing youngsters”
The long and sort of it is that the actions represent the continued budget shortfall at a time when there is little belief that polls such as Herrera are big league ready. I’m actually ‘all in’ on your title and not the game we’ve seen. Paying a premium would be going the distance financially and/or with trades. The Mets have done neither.
This team has a 1B$ pitching staff that begins to melt in 2 or 3 years depending whether trades are made. The teams sole purpose to play the game is to win a World Series. This is quite unfortunately being squandered by a team that is neither defensively strong to support the staff nor offensively a powerhouse like the Jays. If I were GM, I would take these next three years and spend past the limit by being creative and breaking the Wilpon’s arms, and I would rapidly unload every prospect in the pipeline if it could bring proven MLB talent that could win a single World Series. Not a single player coming up is the kind of “build a team around” guy like a Harper or Trout. All are easily expendable.
In the modern world team structure is less about sustained runs like the Braves pennant dynasty. The ga,e is played by all in commitments followed by doing poorly and reloading quality young kids by high draft picks. I would have worked angles to unload Duda Lagares and Flores to get better players then purchased an out option back loaded contract for Chris Davis. Todd Frazier was had for almost no one, but should be the Mets starting 3B with DW playing first or maybe platooning with Duda if he wasn’t traded. This FO is not aggressive in making winning a priority. I’d take 1 World Series win and finish last for years as opposed to finishing second and being a mid pack playoff candidate that does nothing year after year.