The Mets appear to be finished with any big offseason moves, as the middle infield positions will feature new faces, and the lineup seems to be set. No more Yoenis Cespedes, Dillon Gee or Daniel Murphy. Many fans are frustrated with the offseason acquisitions, as fans were hoping for a star or two to be added, or at least Cespedes patrolling the outfield in Queens come April. Sandy Alderson decided to get veteran players to fill holes, and it should help the organization moving forward.
While frustration among fans may be high, we should realize that the last offseason the Mets had featured the team signing Michael Cuddyer, who contributed 10 homers, 41 RBIs and a .5 WAR. There was not much production being provided by the notable acquisition. Granted the Mets offense struggled throughout the first half of 2015, but the team added veterans in Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe, and later added Cespedes. The offense picked up, and provided plenty of runs for the Mets stellar rotation. These acquisitions pushed the Mets over the hump, and helped the team reach the World Series. Next season’s expectations might be high, but they are warranted.
The Kansas City Royals lost the World Series in 2014, and many veterans were leaving the team in the offseason. Ace James Shields, Billy Butler, Nori Aoki and Josh Willingham were some of the notable names to leave the AL Champs. In order to fill the holes left by the departures, the team signed Edinson Volquez, Kendrys Morales, Alex Rios and Chris Young to fill out the roster. These players are not marquee names, but they filled a role for the team, and contributed at a high level throughout the year. The core of the Royals was in place, with Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Salvador Perez. The team also featured Wade Davis as the closer, which did not hurt the team in the slightest. With the core in place, and some added veterans, the team excelled throughout the season, made a deal for Johnny Cueto, and won the World Series.
The Mets may not have the core of offensive players that the Royals do, because we do not know what to expect from David Wright and whether or not he can stay healthy, and there are some question marks throughout the lineup. Instead, the Mets bring back their core of young pitchers, and will ultimately play on this strength throughout the year. The lineup will need Michael Conforto, Travis d’Arnaud and Curtis Granderson to produce at a high level for this offense to run. The platoon of Alejandro de Aza and Juan Lagares should provide enough offense from centerfield, while the middle infielders Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker will have help from Wilmer Flores to provide enough offense and defense. Conforto will get a chance to play every day, so it will be interesting to see how much he produces over an entire season. d’Arnaud can swing the bat well, but will he stay healthy, and will Wright stay healthy? Granderson had a revival last season, but will that continue in 2016? We will have to wait and see.
Just because the Mets have not gotten a star this offseason does not mean it is a failure. Zack Wheeler will be joining the team later on in the season, and who knows what players will be on the trading block come the trading deadline. The Royals won the World Series in 2015 after losing the previous year, which proves that championships are not won over the offseason, and that a quiet offseason does not mean a losing season. In fact it could lead to a better season.
All of the fan rumblings point to issues of Trust with Mets Ownership.
I’d prefer that they sign the near perfect guy now—Cespee;however, I can see the logic of leaving the team with forward ability to fill out the roster.
I don’t Trust them to do that.
I don’t think you can compare Morales with De Aza. They replaced a veteran bat (Butler) with another. De Aza is a fourth outfielder and a spare part. The Royals changed engines and kept their car running smoothly after their tune up. The Met’s are still in need of a RH bat to fill the void that was supposed to be filled by Cuddyer. It’s going to be an average offense at best hoping everyone can stay healthy and hit to their expectations.I do agree that an off season that is fairly quiet does not mean that the team cannot make moves during the season and improve upon what they have.
I take issue with the characterization of “fan rumblings” with unhappiness over the lack of a star. I’ve seen this time and again on the web. Fans who question some of the decisions are painted as people who are petulantly angry over the Wilpons not spending big. And I don’t think that’s the case; in fact, it’s a classic straw man argument. Set up a phony opposition and easily knock it down. The reality is more complex.
But, yes: Of course, I’d love to see the Wilpons operate the team on a bigger budget, as befits the current economics of the game. The Mets are at a disadvantage and I think it’s not only bad baseball, it’s bad business.
That aside, the question for me is not entirely the lack of a star. In fact, I’ve always maintained that there are legitimate questions about Cespedes; it’s reasonable to be cautious before handing him a huge contract. Upton doesn’t fit; and Heyward was never going to happen.
I see poor defense up the middle, with the addition of Cabrera and de Aza. An ongoing blind spot by management that I wish would be corrected. Defense matters. I see an unimpressive bullpen that’s weaker than the flawed bullpen that blew the WS. I see the need for a RH bat on the bench who can play OF corners and 1B, a hole created by the Cuddyer retirement. De Aza is a limited player who does not fit the Mets needs, since he’s a poor fill-in for the club’s LH-hitting corner outfielders. This takes his strength — as a capable corner substitute — and negates it. I am never resting Granderson or Conforto or Duda vs a RHP. I think de Aza would have much more value on a different team. The only box he really checked for the Mets was this: 1) Willing to sign a one-year deal.
My belief, and fervent hope, is that the Mets are not done. I suspect that SA is waiting out the market on the RH bat, unwilling to overpay. I really hope he understands the need for another reliable bridge reliever; you simply cannot ignore the importance of a high-quality bullpen in the modern era.
I also think Tejada has to go. With Flores as super-sub, there’s little that Ruben gives the Mets off the bench. I just don’t see what he gives the club except for insurance through spring training, in the event of a trade or injury. I sure don’t want to pay him $3 million and then feel discouraged every time he’s sent in to PH. Kelly Johnson would pair with Wright much better.
I don’t think they are done yet. I sure hope not.
+1 James
Agree completely!
I agree as well. There are questions regarding the production we’ll receive from Wright, Conforto, Lagares and d’Arnaud. Can Duda avoid a multi-month slump and carry this team? The rotation will again keep this team in it longer than the offense most likely. But we don’t have the prospects to go get another Cespedes-like rental at the trading deadline. I don’t think this team is in a great position at the moment, but they aren’t done by a long shot. I expect playoffs!
I think SA figures he can flip Wheeler in July if he comes back and demonstrates good health. Which is partly why he signed Colon rather than, say, gambled on Montero/Verrett/etc. Those guys might still be in play after a Wheeler deal. Or after the next injury.
The problem with last year’s model — flipping prospects for rentals — is that it’s not sustainable. I mean, it shouldn’t be a “model.”
Losing someone like Wheeler for a rental isn’t a great long-term plan, though I think they might be able to get away with it for one more year. There’s almost zero high-end pitching down on the farm.
“The problem with last year’s model — flipping prospects for rentals — is that it’s not sustainable. I mean, it shouldn’t be a “model.””
This is exactly my problem, and it drives me nuts when I see people keep suggesting this. It’s definitely not a sustainable strategy, and it doesn’t make sense when you can simply use money to solve a problem rather than continue to diminish your farm. Well, I mean maybe not the Mets. Theoretically, anyway.
I’m not advocating for this strategy in any way, shape or form.
But strictly from a theoretical POV – why is it not sustainable? Last year the Mets signed 39 draft picks and probably added another dozen or so international signings. If they’re bringing in roughly 50 people a year — why can’t they trade 5-7 of them per year?
They traded a 3rd rounder for Clippard
A supplemental first-round pick and an international guy for Cespedes
A 12th and 21st-round picks for Uribe and Johnson
A 2nd and 7th-round picks for Torres
It’s not like they traded several years worth of #1 picks
It’s not really fair to just assign some kind of value to them based on their draft position. Each prospect should be valued outside that context, and based on how they’re valued within and outside the Mets organization. In that sense, it’s logical that in order for the Mets to get anything of value back, especially someone as transformative as Cesepedes for instance, you give up valuable pieces.
Fulmer was a top 10 prospect, possibly top 5, in the Mets system. Cessa and Meisner most likely in the top 20, maybe Whalen too. These weren’t just random bodies drafted at the back end of draft day 2. The system in weaker for it, and IMO, continuing to go that route is foolish when (theoretically) you can just use cash instead.
Yes, what Rob said.
I’ll add this, Brian, though I’m surprised you are taking this position. Obviously, there’s a good possibility that Michael Fulmer will be a successful MLB pitcher. It’s very possible that he’ll win games for the Tigers at a minimum salary for a number of years, and also possible that the Tigers could turn around and trade him for other good players. This season alone his loss cost the Mets the money they are giving to Bartolo. In exchange, the Mets got 2 1/2 fabulous months from Cespedes. Someday folks will add up the WAR and declare the Tigers a clear winner. I won’t agree entirely, since I’d make that trade again, but I do not believe it’s good business to continually end up on the short end of WAR for most trades. It doesn’t strike me as effective resource management.
More problematically, a quick glance at the Mets system indicates that we’re fresh out of Michael Fulmer types. There’s nobody else that good, that promising, that close. Part of the Mets success in 2015 came from the fact that Sandy did not flip his aces. If the new practice is to trade prized prospects for rentals, there soon won’t be many prized prospects to offer.
This July, will they have to offer a Matz or a Wheeler to attract a similar quality hitter? Or will it take Rosario and Smith?
The Mets got Clippard partly out of the Wright insurance windfall. They took on salary. But Meisner was an interesting arm, one of the few I really liked in the system. I thought he was a maybe.
Last year I thought the Brooklyn Cyclones was one of the worst Mets farm teams I have ever seen. The lack of overall talent was appalling. All produced by the vaunted tandem of DePodesta and Alderson. It’s not a sure thing that they will keep coming up with the goods that will be attractive trade bait.
In short, I don’t think the Mets system is so good that it can tolerate this kind of approach on a yearly basis. I wouldn’t recommend it, that’s for sure. Moreover, the Mets are a low-budget team, further underscoring the poverty of this approach. Young, inexpensive talent is the life’s blood of this organization. We can’t go out and buy what we need; we can’t go big on international signings. Replenishing lost talent is a tougher task for the Mets than it is for most other teams.
We are looking at a staff that the club won’t be able to afford in the future. Maybe they sign two of these guys, tops. The others will have to be replaced by, ideally, a second wave of talent. Pitching talent that Sandy brings in, not inherits. We may find that it’s not as easy as it looks, or else everybody would be doing it. Certainly they are all trying.
Look, I believe in the deadline trade for a team in the hunt. That’s a good practice. Ideally, a team is seeking a piece, rather than a centerpiece. The big prizes are very, very expensive. But, sure, they can flip for a Uribe or a Torres on an annual basis. Though, again, wouldn’t you rather call a guy up from the farm and keep that production for years to come. Because three months later, you’ve got nothing.
Here’s the first thing I said:
“I’m not advocating for this strategy in any way, shape or form.”
My reply was simply theoretical. The Mets could do this. I wouldn’t want them to do it, but as long as they drafted as well as they did previously, they could do it and probably for awhile. Most likely the end result would be disaster. Even George Allen couldn’t keep the Over the Hill Gang going on forever. The (theoretical) question is for how long they could do it before there was nothing left that other teams found interesting. I’m pretty sure they could do it at least the next three years.
Why do you think it’s not fair to assign a value on them based on their draft position, especially with the new slotting system in place that essentially prevents paying 1st round money to a late-round pick?
But really, my point in this theoretical exercise was to point out that it wasn’t the top prospects over multiple years. Theoretically, you could trade what the Mets traded indefinitely. You couldn’t do that if in 2015, the Mets traded their 2012, 2013 and 2014 first-round picks.
James: “In exchange, the Mets got 2 1/2 fabulous months from Cespedes.”
This fails to recognize the critically important: In exchange for Fulmer, who is blocked for years to come, the exchange got us into the post season and ultimately to the World Series. That’s exactly how it is supposed to go. And if werent for a few weird turns of events, it could have resulted in an actual world championship.
Hey, I said I would make the trade again. I figured the readers here remembered what happened last season.
You nailed it James.
What really annoys me is that the Mets made a big play for Zobrist, a fine player but not a huge difference maker, and were reportedly ready to go to something like 4 years/$60 million for him. If not $60, then perhaps $58. Then as soon as he signed in Chicago the money spigot got totally turned off. Asdrubal came cheaper, the money in the Niese/Walker deal was about a wash. Then they need help in the outfield and in relief but all of a sudden the decree comes down that no contracts of more than a year’s length are going to be offered. Where did the Zobrist money go?
It’s like the owners want to see what Alderson can do with less and less leeway.
Larry the Met’s actually saved a lot more. Niese and his 9 million+ for Colon at 7.25 million as your number 4-5 starter. Walker at 10 million for one season (arbitration) or Murphy at 12-13 million per 3 years. The team saved about 5 million for 2016. The Zobrist money was for Zobrist only. It went right back into the Wilpons coffers and was a one time offer.
Signing Cespadas would have assured they make the post season. WFT is Aza?
Largess only value was defense, and he lost his arm and the rest of his game fell apart.
Unless Wright is back to awesome, highly unlikely, they have a mediocre offense.
Yes, their starting pitchers may get them to the post season, if the Nats suck again,which is unlikely.
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It comes down to trust in the ownership.
They clearly said they would spend money if we came out to the ballpark.
Guess what? We came and they didn’t spend.
Now they might have decided not to spend due to what was available and what they felt they needed. They definitely were willing to spend for Zobrist and I can agree that Cespedes probably doesn’t fit long term.
I think we collectively don’t trust the owners so think the worst of their decisions.
Its like having a cheating girlfriend/boyfriend. Once they have broken your trust you might not ever trust them again, even if they give you no reason to mistrust them.
I think that’s the case here and I really don’t know if Mets fans will ever trust the Wilpons again.
Again, speaking for myself, my issues — from the comfortable distance of my armchair — are more to do with the allocation of funds than the overall amount of funds available. Yes, more would be better. But I think they had enough to do the job. I’m assuming there’s still about $10 million in play. There had better be.
I’ve given up on the owners. Right now I’m looking at the GM moves. Underwhelming.
I actually had a dream about the Mets and Cespedes. Maybe this was the result of just reading that the best offer for Cespedes is only three years?
How about offering Cespedes a six year contract at $20 MIL per? But, give Cespedes an out after two years. Guarantee four years with the next two years based on meeting certain parameters in years four and, possibly, five.
If it’s true that the Mets earned another $40 to $60 MIL for their playoff work, then $20 MIL for Cespedes in 2016 gives them a better chance to go back to the playoffs. The Lagares/deAza platoon can’t come close to what Cespedes would do.
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But Kevin the unofficial estimates have the Wilpons making an additional 45-50 million dollars from this post season. Where did all that profit go? Certainly not on payroll. It went to pay down their debts for SNY and the team. It’s like a kid who has a dollar to spend in a candy store. He can get the best chocolate bar the shop has for a dollar or he can buy 5 smaller cheaper candies and have more to eat but less tasty. The Alderson method is the latter. To dangerous for him to invest all that money on one player with little or no money for a back up plan. The last I read was Cespedes looking for 100 million for 6 years. Don’t know how true it is. But I think Detroit will sign him.
Off-Topic: But DePodesta! I sure didn’t see that coming.
The Mets added a starting second baseman by trade a, shortstop and 1/2 a centerfield platoon via free agency. They also resigned two of their own free agents. It was not a quiet off season. It also wasn’t a spending offseason either. Aproximately $34-38 (depending on the Cuddyer buy out) came off the starting 2015 salary and it was replaced by $36m in 2016 salary. The increase in the rest of the payroll through arbitration is presently the only salary increase for the Mets. They need to add a RH OF-1B and maybe a 7th inning reliever. Management stated that an increase in attendance would be followed by an increase in payroll. Will they pony up another $10m to fill their apparent needs?
It seems as though the Wilpons never heard the expression about “spending money to make money.” SA and company have done quite a job in the past year and the offseason, thus far, is positive even including deAza.
It would appear that there is an opportunity with the very late developing FA market. If Cespedes can be had in a contract where both sides benefit the Mets should sign him, warts and all. Would you trade Legares and deAza even up for Cespedes?
Why would you even want to spend big bucks in Free Agency? Let’s review last years top FA hitters who got 3+ years at 10 mil+
Sandoval-Massive Bust
HanRam-Bust
Martin- Boom
Tomas-Bust
Vmart- Bust
Cruz-Boom
Headley-Bust
Markakis-Boom
Melky-Bust
Butler-Bust
That’s 10 players, and 7 of them weren’t even league average players. At least 4 of those players will be below average next year and odds are at least a 50% chance that 6-7 will be below average.
This is not to say you shouldn’t take any chances, but spending money in FA should be like spending money on the lottery. Expect to lose more often than you win.
I don’t think the Mets off season has been quiet. They’ve been very busy and have accomplished a lot. They are just not acquiring players that “some” fans want.