On one hand we have David Wright, the homegrown star that we’ve watched every day of his MLB career. He’s the star who does it the classy way, never running his mouth or running down opponents. Wright is the guy you want your hero to be. On the other hand, we have a guy on the wrong side of 30, who comes with a bad back and the inability to throw overhand. And he’s sucking up the most payroll of anyone on the team.
Will his injuries allow him to play at anywhere approaching a regular basis? If he’s able to stay on the field, will he be productive? If he’s healthy and productive early, will his manager give him the days off he needs or will he run him into the ground? There’s just a bunch of question marks surrounding Wright these days and it’s not the way that any of us wanted his career to unfold.
Will an offseason of rest and rehab get Wright to the position where he can make it through a season that we hope once again ends with a playoff berth? Or will the Mets have to once again play without their captain for a large part of the season? Here’s what we think:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | K% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Barbieri | 471 | .275 | .372 | .466 | 16 | 54 | 21.7 |
| David Groveman | 240 | .280 | .395 | .380 | 5 | 45 | 20.0 |
| Charlie Hangley | 368 | .272 | .360 | .410 | 12 | 59 | 21.4 |
| Brian Joura | 513 | .277 | .381 | .437 | 14 | 49 | 22.3 |
| Mike Kohler | 275 | .285 | .380 | .425 | 7 | 45 | 19.5 |
| Matt Netter | 375 | .284 | .339 | .430 | 10 | 63 | 28.0 |
| James Newman | 400 | .275 | .340 | .440 | 15 | 65 | 20.0 |
| Doug Parker | 420 | .275 | .330 | .415 | 8 | 55 | 21.0 |
| Rob Rogan | 495 | .295 | .390 | .480 | 14 | 53 | 20.0 |
| Larry Smith | 350 | .273 | .340 | .425 | 11 | 41 | 20.5 |
It seems we think an injury is inevitable. But that’s hardly surprising, as Wright has topped 140 games played just once in the past five seasons. Perhaps the most surprising thing about the numbers above is how many RBIs people project him to get, given that they see him missing half the year and when healthy last year he spent the majority of the time batting in the second slot in the order.
We had two writers submit a late entry and not be in our official ranking. Here were their numbers:
Walendin – 500 PA, .291/.368/.427, 12 HR, 62 RBIs, 18.5 K%
Ferguson – 480 PA, .285/.360/.430. 12 HR, 65 RBIs, 20.0 K%
These two were a little more optimistic on playing time but neither of these forecasts would indicate 140 or more games played.
Here’s what the group thinks Wright will do in 2016:
Where we were optimistic with Harvey, we’re not willing to go down that same path with Wright. For contrast, this time last year we projected Wright to amass 605 PA and have a .287/.380/.490 line. What a difference a year makes. Usually we reach this point and then look at the computer projection models to see if we’re being overly optimistic. Yet this time the exact opposite is in play. Were we so hurt by last year that we’re being needlessly pessimistic? Here’s what the big boys say:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel | 346 | .275 | .343 | .427 | 9 | 37 |
| Mets360 | 391 | .275 | .360 | .425 | 11 | 53 |
| Steamer | 456 | .266 | .337 | .410 | 11 | 48 |
| ZiPS | 474 | .266 | .344 | .397 | 10 | 54 |
It’s hard to look at these numbers and think we’re being too pessimistic. Both Steamer and ZiPS project more playing time, but that’s about it. We have him tied for the top AVG, have the top OBP and are two points away from the top SLG mark. Talk about your cold bowl of chili.
Check back Thursday for our next entry in the projection series.
Your projection of 513 PA’s points to about 115-120 games. If he would deliver that 14 HR power over those games, it would be a pretty good output for a managed schedule…I’ll take it!!!!
They are in better poosition for known and projectible answers to his missing ab’s than they have been….. Tejada, Flores, Herrera, etc.
The Pass/Fail in 2016 is entirely focused on d’Arnaud, Duda, and Conforto— somebody needs to anchor this lineup.
Heard TC talking about 135 games for DW. That seems so wrong to me, as I would hope that a full, healthy, productive, “managed” season would get him regular rest. I’d be guided by a 120 game goal. Three games on, one game off.
Anyway, I’m very pessimistic.
That said, the key number I’ll be looking at is the differential between BA and OBP. In good years, he’s a .100+ type guy. I see that number gradually going down, down, down. That number is driven, largely, by his SLG threat.
Why walk David Wright anymore? The better pitchers are going to challenge and beat him.
Maybe I’m putting too much into his postseason failures, but this was a guy who K’d 20 times in 54 ABs — in the most important games of his life — but he did manage 10 walks. It seems like his entire offensive value at this point is tied into those walks, and the occasional threat of a HR. I thought it was deeply telling that KC did not walk DW (only once). That’s how I’d attack the Mets, too. Stop walking the #2 hitter.
The question: How fast will the league catch on?
If he stopped getting walks — a bad year for him would be a .070+ differential — then he could land close to a 750 OPS.
Looking at these projections, that’s the area of biggest difference. Dave Groveman sees DW as a .395 OBP guy, with no SLG, driven by an enormous number of walks. Others see those walk numbers as steadily shrinking, which is my take, too.
I think he’s savvy enough to put up an empty BA around .280, rolling singles through the holes. But at the same time, we could witness a precipitous decline. This will not end well.
If he gives you 120 games and a upper 700 OPS, over the next couple of seasons…and a few “reclaimed greatness” moments… That is the new definition to “Ending Well”.
Otherwise, his Contract has already ended poorly.
I mean that it could get ugly.
I can’t believe he’s gonna play anywhere close to a full season. Why else would you stockpile ML average infielders with a goal of flexibility? Why would you keep Tejada if you’ve got Cabrera starting at SS, Walker at second and fan-favorite Flores riding the bench?
They’re peddling the Flores will back up first line. I don’t buy it. Expecting the team to acquire a new backup 1B/cOF (Raburn?) and shuffle the likes of Cabrera, Walker, Tejada and Flores with Wright.
Mike…Jim… I agree
I love reading these projections every year! I’m very curious how the statistical data matches up year over year. Would it be difficult to run a breakdown on how accurate your projections were compared to the others in the past?
Keep up the great work!
I crunched the numbers about a month ago for hitters using OPS absolute mean error. It’s very crude and doesn’t weight for PA or anything and uses data from the last 2 years, but i think it tells a decent enough story. Here’s the summarized data
Joura Error: 0.051 OPS
Mets360 Error : 0.057 OPS
Steamer Error: 0.053 OPS
ZIPS error: 0.050 OPS
As you can see, they are all similar, and in my opinion, have relatively little predictive power. Each is as likely to be right (or wrong depending on viewpoint) as the next. In the end, they are all guesses, even the computers.
No offense to anyone here at 360, but the fantasy industry — a billion-dollar industry — has had a negative impact on the world of statistics.
Or, at least, a mostly negative impact.
All the money is in predictions. All these fantasy players want to win the draft and so they come in with Baseball Prospectus annuals under their arms, while subscribing to “proprietary” statistic outlets. That’s the key: These services are desperate to own their own stats, so there’s a strong financial impetus to create new statistical formulas. That’s where the money is.
Sure, everybody is trying to be right. And money can incentivize the research that leads to real breakthroughs.
But, but, but. To me, the stats are excellent at explaining to us what happened. We can look back and understand, probably better than ever. But when it comes to making predictions about the future, it’s mostly a con game. Nobody knows. That’s the beauty of the game. Players surprise us all the time.
The problem is that when some folks come armed with pages of calculations, that they can be lured into the misguided idea that they really do know. They did the math!
Still, predictions are interesting, and fun, and they can even be illuminating. But I agree with Name’s concluding sentence: “In the end, they are all guesses, even the computers.”
But, but, but. To me, the stats are excellent at explaining to us what happened. We can look back and understand, probably better than ever. But when it comes to making predictions about the future, it’s mostly a con game. Nobody knows. That’s the beauty of the game. Players surprise us all the time.
^
That is 100% accurate James.
Something doesn’t add up.
All winter, most people on here has been proclaiming Wright’s death. Yet, everyone here thinks that Wright will perform, when healthy. The average OPS of 3b last year was 738. Everyone predicted an over on that mark and only 1 had an OPS under 765… which is approaching the above average territory and a long ways off from being “done”
So what gives?
I think it is relative. A healthy Wright performing at a league average OPS is “done,” in many ways. For him, at least.
Now you could argue that everybody has to re-think Wright and accept that he’s not going to be a top 10 3B ever again.
Could be a language issue. Could be expectations. Where will he bat in the order? Will the manager agonize over every single day off? And so on.
I think there’s a cliff he might fall off, personally, though I don’t know when.
I would hate a make or break bet on his health—– I’d be compelled to bet The Under, and I almost wouldnt care what The Under would be. One of the (formerly) supreme Baseball Athletes played 38 games (plus playoffs) last year—and his play and performance were markedly different than ever before. That included an adjusted throwing motion, and all sorts of commentary on his laborious pre-game prep.
Whatever was before has already ended… I root for him to cling to some level of production and even occasional greatness. Frankly, this is sad.
Any talk about David Wright now just makes me sad. His best years were wasted on terrible teams and idiotic outfield dimensions, and now it could be that he’ll never be that player again. Feel better, Captain.