Rumors everywhere have it that the Mets have signed free agent reliever Antonio Bastardo to a two-year, $12 million deal. Everyone who was criticizing that the Mets only signed Jerry Blevins to a one-year deal and didn’t pay enough to get him should be satisfied with this move.
Bastardo had a very nice year in 2015, with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.134 WHIP. And while he only compiled 57.1 IP in 66 Games, rumor has it that he’s not a LOOGY. He’s done quite well lifetime against RHB, with a .640 OPS allowed in 839 PA against righties, which makes you wonder why his managers haven’t let him face more righties.
A few things that we should be aware of in regards to Bastardo:
1. While he had a very nice year last year, he was not used in high leverage situations. Seven Pirate relievers last year had at least 30 innings and among those, Bastardo ranked fifth in leverage. It was the fourth straight season Bastardo has seen his leverage fall, meaning he’s consistently been given less important situations in which to pitch. It may not seem like much, but if the Mets are counting on him to be a 7th or 8th inning guy, it’s something that should at least make you go, hmmmmm.
2. Bastardo has very high strikeout rates. He also has very high walk rates, even with his shiny WHIP. He’s pitched 25 games or more six seasons in the majors and each of those six years his walk rate has been above four.
3. The last three years, Bastardo has done a good job in suppressing home runs. His overall success falls largely on his strand rate. In three of his six seasons with at least 25 games pitched, Bastardo has had a LOB% above 78 and his ERA in those three seasons have all been 2.98 or under. In the three seasons where he hasn’t excelled in the category, his ERAs have been 3.94, 4.33 and 4.34.
4. Only once in his career has Bastardo recorded a 1.0 fWAR and last year he recorded a 0.6 mark. He’s been all over the place in WPA, posting a solid 1.0 in 2015 but being in negative numbers the previous two seasons.
Perhaps there’s a case to be made that Bastardo is a better pitcher than Sean Gilmartin. You couldn’t make that case looking at their 2015 numbers, though. But Bastardo’s been in the majors for six-plus years. As long as you completely ignore that his results have not been consistent, you can give him an edge for being a veteran.
So, we have a veteran lefty reliever who signed a short-term deal. It’s safe to say this one checks all of the boxes in things that get Sandy Alderson excited. If this move was made with the idea of freeing up Gilmartin to pitch in the rotation, it would be one thing. But the Bartolo Colon signing essentially closes off that avenue.
It just seems like a lot of money to clone the production of Gilmartin. But its not the first time this offseason we’ve seen this type of move being made. No doubt it will be praised for adding depth, and like all things, the proof will be in the pudding. But it’s hard for me to get behind this signing for this amount of money.
Sandy is quietly spending (too much) money in the bullpen.
Reed-5.3
Bastardo-6m (probably less but i’ll just assume even for now)
Blevins-4m
Torres-1.05m
Familia – 0.5m
2 other guys – 1m
Total: 17.85m or 24.6m when Fartolo gets booted to the bullpen for stinking it up in the rotation
That’s not too far from the Nationals, who i have pegged at 22-23m for their bullpen costs this year.
And the crazy part is the Nationals are spending $11 million on their closer while the Mets are spending minimum wage.
The Mets are paying around $11.3 million to Reed and Bastardo to act as the late-innnings bridge to Familia. Meanwhile Reed was sent to the minors last year and Bastardo was dealt straight up for a guy who had a 6-something ERA in the minors. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with paying this amount of money for lock down performances in the bullpen. I just have doubts these were the right guys.
I believe the criticism is a bit harsh. Yes, he may be comparable to Gilmartin, but he has way more experience. Not only this, but it adds significant depth to a position where we had none last year. Who knows who breaks their arm or gets caught using PED’s this year. It creates more competition between our young guys, who are still quality, to perform. It also allows us to be able to make moves between Las Vegas with the guys who have options instead of potentially having a weak link at the major league level where it matters. This is a great signing for less money and years than everyone anticipated for him. Great move, IMO.
I actuly like this move it gives you 2 guys in the 7th and 8th that can play matchups with and It pushes Blevins to the 6th inning for that tough out while freeing up Robles to play matchups to. I like the depth in our bull pen with this signing.
Gilmartin
Torres
Robles or Godell
Blevins
Reed
Bastardo
Familia
With the depth of Smoker, Alvarez, Edgin, Montero, Verrett, walters and even Bart later in the year and the former milwaukee closer we have on a minor league deal (sorry his name escapes me at the moment) I like the versatility of the pen. With Revelers there is always some volatility in terms of performance which is why versatile depth is important and I think Sandy has addressed that.
That bullpen is solidly assembled with a bunch of sticks. It’ll do, for now. But our bullpen had an ERA of 4.22 in the World Series, and I don’t see this one being a whole lot better. And certainly not better when we thought Mejia was going to be a setup man at this point last year.
On a side note, I’d give Colon six starts to keep his ERA under 3.50, or put in Verrett otherwise.
I like this signing a lot. He’s a good pitcher and the bullpen was lacking another late-inning guy. Very tough to hit. A proven arm. Directly addresses a team need. The cost is the cost, doesn’t bother me.
I knew that Brian and some others here would hate it, but I don’t agree.
Deep benches and bullpens are nice to have but wouldn’t we be better served spending 25MM on a cleanup hitter rather than a handful of replacement level players? This is true in terms of ticket sales as well as WAR.
I’d be happy if they signed Cespedes, I would. But I don’t think they like him. With the red flags — and there are red flags regarding his attitude & effort — he is a tough guy on whom to invest $100+ million and beyond. For one minor example, he could easily turn around after two years and say: “I don’t want to play RF.”
I don’t think he’s ever really been an option for Sandy. So they decided to fill in the roster with pieces.
BTW, I don’t really believe in the idea of adding up the WAR totals concept. The real game doesn’t work that way.
Check out gis career stats against some the nl.east s better hitters. Freeman, for example.0-19 with 9 ks. Harper 2-12. There s more…also he s much more of a strikeout litcher than gilmartin.
Gilmartin hasn’t given up a hit to Freeman or Harper. Regardless, that’s the argument for Blevins, the LOOGY. There’s not enough LHB to go around to make one LOOGY necessary, much less two. Bastardo was acquired to be a late-inning reliever, which means he has to get all hitters out. He’s shown the ability to do this in low leverage situations, to get results when he’s the fifth option in the bullpen. But the Mets are paying him to be the second or third option and the jury is still very much out if he can handle that.
The edge that Bastardo has over Gilmartin in strikeouts is made up for by Gilmartin’s edge in allowing walks. Gilmartin had a 3.0 K/BB ratio last year compared to a 2.46 mark for Bastardo.
Gilmartin has not demonstrated any ability whatsoever to work in late innings. He hasn’t done it. Ever. He was been a nice long man last year, and that’s an important role.
I think Bastardo’s BA-against in seriously low, and among the MLB leaders, over the past 5-6 years. To compare this two is silly.
Yes, relievers’ statistics fluctuate wildly, in part because of small sample size and the great variety of specific situations they face. So to a degree, the numbers will vary by that alone. But also, sure, there’s an unpredictability to the role. Which I see as a reason for adding quality depth to the pen — not a reason to avoid it. We don’t know where the regressions are going to come from. It could be Familia. It could be Gilmartin, or Reed.
Bastardo should definitely help, but it’s not a guarantee. He’s a lot like Alex Torres, actually. Walks guys. Not a strict loogy. If he gets misused, if everybody focuses on the walks and forgets the WHIP, then maybe he won’t be a great success in NYC. But I think he can pitch. Though again, I thought that was true of Torres, too.
And when’s the last time Bastardo has demonstrated the ability to pitch late in the game? He did good in 2011 and did not do good at all in 2012 and hasn’t been given many chances since. And, oh yeah, he failed a drug test in 2013.
And I agree that there are some similarities between he and A. Torres. I like Torres but I wouldn’t give him a multi-year deal at eight figures and count on him to pitch the 7th and 8th regularly.
If the Mets signed Bastardo to be their fifth guy, like he was in Pittsburgh last year, this would be a good move. Depth, the key word of the offseason, and all that. But he’s being slotted in for a much more important role.
Could it work? Sure. As Bastardo himself has proven with his up-and-down results in the majors — anything can happen in 50-something innings. But how is the fanbase going to react if he puts up the numbers he did in 2014 or 2012?
No one can say with a straight face what Bastardo is going to give you year to year. But the Mets are paying as if they feel strongly that he will repeat his 2015 performance..
Generally speaking, Alderson is a risk-averse GM. But he’s willingly signing up for the risk of Bastardo. You need to have risk somewhere on your roster if you can’t outspend your mistakes. I just think that #5 SP and #2/#3 RP is a strange place to spend money to take on risk.
The Mets are paying Colon $7.25 million, Bastardo (let’s put it evenly, for sake of simplicity) $6 million and Reed $5.3 million. That’s $18 million for a guy who’s declined, a guy sent to the minors last year and a guy traded straight up for a minor leaguer with a 6-something ERA. And not to go all Chris F. here, but two of these guys are further risks because they’ve already failed drug tests.
This offseason’s pitching moves don’t add up for me.
Freeman is 0-3 vs Gilmartin. Talk about small sample size. Has Sandy actually said where they expect to use Bastardo? Could be the 7th or 8th, or could be situational. I think they are largely expecting the top 4 to pitch 7 innings a start and then have a lot of fresh arms to mix and match from in the 7th and 8th. I don’t think it’ll be a strict setup. Some nights Robles, some nights Bastardo, some nights Reed.
I have not heard/read anything yet on usage but it’s hard to imagine him being the fifth guy out of the pen given his experience and salary.
Baseball-Reference breaks down leverage situations by High, Medium and Low and gives OPS+ splits. Here is their definition of that split:
A number greater than 100 indicates this pitcher did worse than usual in this split. A number less than 100 indicates this pitcher did better than usual in this split.
Here are Bastardo’s career leverage numbers by OPS+
Hi Leverage – 111
Med Leverage – 140
Low Leverage – 74
He cleans up in low leverage situations but is below average in High Leverage and dreadful in Medium Leverage situations throughout his career. He was better in those two categories in 2015 but was horrible in both Med and Hi in 2014.
The Mets are banking on 2015 Bastardo to show up and not the guy from 2014 and earlier in his career. It absolutely could happen. But 2014 and 2012 Bastardo are just as likely to show up. The Mets are paying for upside, not (relative) certainty. It’s my belief that most people consider Bastardo a much safer option than he is in reality.
Edit: Bastardo had 152 PA in Low Leverage situations in 2015 and 86 combined PA in the other two situations.
If only we waited a bit longer… Clippard signs for 2 yr/12.25m.
Present value is slighty a bit more since he gets more upfront than Bastardo, but it’s not terribly significant.
Also another bargain Howie kendrick.
2 years/20 mil, but half is deferred so he gets paid out 5m annually for the next 4 years. What a steal! Even if you had to give up a draft pick.Slightly greater injury risk and bat is slightly worse compared to Walker and even Murphy, but at about 75% of the cost.
An interesting question if the fanbase would have preferred Clippard at this point. He was an excellent addition but the final memories weren’t so hot.
If metsblog comments is any representation of the met fanbase, they are happy to see him gone.
Couple people actually said it was money better spent on Bastardo. LOL.
Crazy how a few games can make or destroy the opinion of a player. Sorry to say but the majority of fans are idiots.