Jacob deGrom stared down the sophomore slump last year and laughed, showing his rookie success was not a fleeting thing. He made the All-Star team, pitched more innings than he did in his Rookie of the Year campaign and had both a lower ERA and a lower WHIP than in his standout debut. He stumbled a bit down the stretch during the regular season and his World Series start was not a success but those hardly detracted from what was a phenomenal year.
This time last year we were wondering if deGrom could repeat his wonderful debut. Since that question has been answered positively, what’s next for the Mets’ pitching star? Does he have another gear that he can kick things into? Is a 20-win season and a Cy Young Award in the cards for him? Here’s what we think:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | O-Swing% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Barbieri | 204.0 | 3.09 | 212 | 44 | 22 | 3.10 | 28.7 |
| Charlie Hangley | 195.0 | 2.77 | 181 | 45 | 20 | 3.30 | 25.3 |
| Brian Joura | 213.0 | 2.81 | 215 | 44 | 18 | 2.83 | 33.3 |
| Mike Kohler | 185.0 | 2.70 | 201 | 40 | 16 | 2.73 | 36.0 |
| Matt Netter | 215.0 | 2.70 | 204 | 49 | 13 | 2.71 | 35.5 |
| James Newman | 220.0 | 2.45 | 240 | 45 | 19 | 2.69 | 34.8 |
| Rob Rogan | 204.0 | 2.65 | 217 | 46 | 16 | 2.70 | 34.0 |
| Larry Smith | 185.0 | 3.08 | 186 | 46 | 17 | 3.06 | 35.0 |
| Chris Walendin | 217.0 | 2.72 | 225 | 57 | 15 | 2.75 | 35.0 |
Interestingly, eight of the nine of us see him with a higher ERA than a season ago. Only James predicts further improvement in that category. But it’s not like the rest of us have him falling off a cliff. The most pessimistic projection is Joe’s call for a 3.09 ERA. We all see him remaining healthy and having great success.
Here’s how we think he’ll do overall in 2016:
Last year, deGrom finished tied for second in the majors in getting hitters to chase pitches outside the strike zone, with a 36.5 O-Swing%. We predict more of the same for him in 2016, with a 34.8 mark. The Royals did a good job of not chasing pitchers but we don’t seem to be worried about the rest of the league following suit.
Now, let’s check in on some of the other projections that are available for deGrom:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel | 169.0 | 2.93 | 173 | 43 | 14 | 2.85 |
| Mets360 | 204.1 | 2.72 | 209 | 46 | 17 | 2.84 |
| Steamer | 203.0 | 3.17 | 209 | 51 | 20 | 3.18 |
| ZiPS | 178.1 | 2.83 | 186 | 46 | 13 | 2.80 |
We have nearly the same IP forecast as Steamer and our FIP is nearly identical to Marcel and ZiPS. But overall ours is clearly the most optimistic, most notably as we predict an ERA 45 points lower than Steamer.
Check back Thursday for our next entry in the projection series.
My worry about Jake is that he went from — by my count — 179 IP in 2014 to 214 IP in 2015. By the end, he appeared to be running on fumes & desire.
The concern is that there could be a bit of a lingering effect on him in the 2016 season. Pitchers on the Giants staff have historically struggled in years following a long postseason run.
He’s obviously a great pitcher, but he does thrive on his electricity. If that’s down a notch, I could see more outings where he struggles.
I’m hoping for the best, but in my mind he’s a candidate for some decline.
Love him. Today, if the Mets could only lock up two of these pitchers long-term, I’d go with deGrom and Syndergaard. This is all subject to change.
These projections, all these analytics are a joke,especially for a pitcher. Everything can change at the drop of a dime. Key as I see it is more old school, innings pitched, ERA, walks vs strikeout ratio and that is it. Even Wins and Losses are difficult to measure the way bullpens come into play seemingly each and every game.
How many blown W’s did the bullpen give Harvey ?
I can remember 4 at least.
If d’Grom goes 200 innings with an ERA around 3 or less, not to worry Mets’ fans, there will likely be a good 15 victories to go with it. If the other “guns” do similar, then a pennant and hopefully WS victory will go with it as well.
Root for health…every bump in the road that this staff will face can be overcome if they’re healthy.
Matz, Syndee, Harvey, and DeGrom need to combine for at least 750 innings. If the “combined 5” (including Colon/Wheeler) can hit 900-950 innings, it will be a nice year
Can someone tell me why the baseball ref projections for IP are so far below what seem reasonable?
By my count, I am expecting >200 from Harvey and deGrom, ~200 from Syndergaard and Colon, and 170-180 from Matz.
Marcel is just a weighted average of a player’s previous years with a little bit of regression. In this case, deGrom’s 140 IP rookie season is weighing it down
Thanks. Clearly thats preposterous for people young in their career.
What Name said.
BTW – why are you expecting around 200 innings for Colon?
where else are those innings coming from?
Let’s see, you’re projecting somewhere around 980 IP from the top five starters. Last year the Mets got 901.2 IP from their top five. The year before it was 853.
You know the plan is for Colon to pitch in the rotation until Wheeler comes back.
Last year the Mets used 10 different starting pitchers. I imagine it will be similar this year.
I certainly am aware of that, and that out starters already pitched more than others last year. But wheeler won’t start til after the ASB, and Matz will be on a short leash in terms of innings. Will colon get 30 starts? Unlikely. But if the the staff is otherwise healthy colon will get plenty of innings. He’s a proven innings eater and has a rubber arm. Maybe gets closer to 150.
I’d still take the under on that.
I’d be curious where you think those inning are gonna be made up
Wheeler will get most of them. Last year there were 73 starts in the second half, or around 14 starts per pitcher. That’s around 80 innings.
If Montero’s healthy he’ll be an option, along with Verrett and Gilmartin. My guess is there will be a Triple-A veteran signed – maybe Stauffer comes back. Who knows, maybe Bowman gets returned by the Cardinals and is in line for a spot start.