Mets fans old enough to remember the 1986 season will readily recall a talented and arrogant team that blew through the National League with 108 regular season wins on their way to the epic World Series win. Thirty years ago 100-win seasons were not uncommon. In most seasons, at least one if not more teams won 100 games. Now, in an era of expansion, free agency, reduced power numbers and talent shortages at many key positions, the century mark has become a loftier goal. The 2015 Cardinals barely made it with a 100-62 record and they were the first to reach the mark in five years.
This season there are two National League teams with a legitimate shot. The Cubs and the Mets enter 2016 looking more seasoned, confident and improved from their 90+win 2015s and deep playoff runs. FanGraphs, using an inexact formula based on projected player WAR, runs scored and allowed, estimates that the Cubs will have the best record at 94-68 and that the Mets will go 86-76, tied with the Yankees, Astros and Giants for the fifth best record. The Red Sox, Dodgers and Nationals are all projected to win more games than the Mets. Prior to the Yoenis Cespedes resigning, FanGraphs had us destined for 84 wins, so that means their pegging Cespedes, who had a 6.3 WAR last season, to slide down to just 2.0 or thereabouts.
FanGraphs also projects David Wright to play in 154 games and the Red Sox to win 91 games. Seriously? Yes, they greatly improved their team with the additions of a bona fide ace – David Price – and a top notch closer – Craig Kimbrel, and yes they have a nucleus of exciting young bats. But their number two pitcher is Clay Bucholz, their cleanup hitter is 40, Hanley Ramirez will be playing first, Pablo Sandoval is battling weight problems, and they play in a very competitive division. For this reason alone, this writer is not buying into the FanGraphs win total projections. Now onto the Mets.
On July 31 of last year the Mets stood at 53-50. A weak offense and lack of depth was holding back first-rate pitching. From then on, the Mets rounded into a complete team with a healthy David Wright and Travis d’Arnaud, the additions of rookie Michael Conforto and trades for veterans Juan Uribe, Kelly Johnson, some guy named Cespedes and the relievers Addison Reed and Tyler Clippard. From August 1 through the end of the regular season, the Mets went 37-22 to capture the division title and steam into the playoffs. That’s a .627 winning percentage, which, in a full season, translates to a 102-60.
Sound far-fetched? This is clearly a much better team than the one that played in the first half of last season. There are no retreads or AAAA players taking up roster space. Five former starters will be filling out the bench. With two switch hitters and several players who can handle multiple positions, this team is far deeper and more versatile. Spring training will be a dogfight among quality arms to fill out the bullpen. And the rotation really has the chance to be dominant. We’ll be getting full seasons of Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz, plus Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom with no innings restrictions. Bartolo Colon, who is usually at his best early in the season, will take the fifth turn in the rotation until Zack Wheeler and his dazzling stuff returns to bolster an already ridiculous group of power arms. This team, as currently constructed, could be better than the one that went to the World Series.
We’ll have a full year Cespedes in the middle of our batting order. Michael Conforto, a star in the making, is bound to improve. Wright is healthy and, should he need time off, Wilmer Flores will prove a much more capable fill in than Eric Campbell. Travis d’Arnaud will hopefully give us a full season, Asdrubal Cabrera will give us better offensive production from shortstop and Neil Walker will give us better defense at second. Lucas Duda, with an improved lineup around him, should be able to return to his 2014 form. In fact, most players on this team figure to have better seasons in 2016. Curtis Granderson, due to his age, is projected to have a diminished offensive season, but he is the exception.
This team has the big guns to pitch shutouts and 1-run games, a balanced lineup to score in bunches, a deep bullpen to lock down close games, a strong bench to contribute in key spots, and the organizational depth to overcome injuries. We also have two big midseason acquisitions already in place. This summer Wheeler and former closer Mejia will join what will already be one of the most formidable pitching staffs in baseball. And if injuries should create an obvious need, the Mets still have the trade chips to patch holes at the trade deadline.
And we have two other things going for us – the Phillies and the Braves. That’s right, we’re going to have 38 games against two very bad teams. For what it’s worth FanGraphs projects them to have the two worst records in baseball in 2016.
This Met team is talented, deep, hungry and confident. That’s what was said of the 1986 Mets.
Yes spring training is just about here, and yes there is excitement about signing Ces back for a year. So I get the excitement. But seriously, already projecting >100 wins this year, for a team that won 90 last year,without the first pitch being thrown. This is a hard game, and it lasts forever so injuries mount, and its filled with all kinds of variables, and there is greater parity than ever. All this makes projections worthless. How about we set a goal of winning the division, regardless of how many Ws that means? I got news for ya, the team will never have a .627 winning percentage at the years end. Id put a crisp $100 bill on that. remember the Nats?
Its also worth noting the Marlins are a better team, with Fernandez back and Stanton healthy. The Nats are still a damn good team.
“All this makes projections worthless.”
Exactly what every guy I’ve fleece at the poker tables said.
Except that poker and baseball are not similar in any way.
I agree with Chris…let’s concentrate on playing solid ball, using the season to get our keystone combination comfortable with each other, getting Wheeler back, getting a solid regime in place for resting Wright, and winning consistently. Hopefully, that puts us ahead of the Nationals. Obviously, the Marlins have some talent too, but the Nats have to be considered our most serious competition.
I wouldn’t Project 100 wins…. only the Cardinals did it in 2015, followed by Bucs at 98 and Cubs at 97—so, it’s a tough and big number.
Interesting that those teams did it while playing each other in-division…reinforces how strong the must have been—Iwonder what their interleague Matchups looked like strength of schedule wise.
I’ve got ’em anywhere between 98-102, personally.
It’s just one fan/writer’s opinion. I know a lot can happen and enough injuries can derail any team. Heck, everyone thought the Nats were a 100-win team last year. This is a team with tremendous pitching, a solid lineup and bullpen and the depth to overcome injuries in slumps, plus a lot of room for improvement, hunger, confidence and two very weak teams in the division. I feel pretty good about 100 wins. Harvey unchained, full seasons of Thor, Matz, Conforto, Wright, d’Arnaud, Cespedes, and Reed with Wheeler and Mejia coming back. I think this is going to be a really good team.
Biggest difference between Mets and Nats – chemistry.
Now that the team is in place, they need a style of play, Mets ball so to speak. A team built on hustle, hunger, making you pay for mistakes, and putting the fear of God in opposing pitchers. What I’d also like to see is a team that shortens the game so that if they are winning after 6 innings, it’s lights out, game over. With this pitching staff and offense, that is not asking a lot. Shoring up the bullpen to a shutdown level is the last piece of that puzzle and they are almost there. Do that and 100 wins is within reach..
Ask most fans and they’ll tell you that they want their team to win the pennant whether it be with 90 wins or 100 wins.
The Pirates won 98 last year and the Mets 90. Which team has the more positive memories of 2015?
Prognosticating for 100 wins is setting your self up for disappointment. Just win the pennant!
The Team is Built on a Light’s Out Starter every day of the week—that’s the ID
If that proves itself, you’ll se many teams playing very tight 1 run ball against them.
After the misery…this is a nice team…and a Root-able group!!!
Now is the time for optimism. If we can’t have some fun and predict 100 wins for what may be a very good Mets team, then what’s the point of following baseball? This is more fun than all those seasons we predicted a .500 team even though we knew a win total in the low to mid 70s was more realistic.
Can always count on BK. There is no reason to be anything but optimistic right now
The starting rotation is the key that opens the 100 win vault. The Mets could conceiveably have 4 pitchers with around 3.00 ERA. The present offense should easily put enough runs on the board to support the pitching staff. The 37-22 ending was not a fluke and the present team has a better offensive unit.
If Metsense agrees with me I must be on to something.
If metsense agrees with me I must be on to something.
Three points:
– Just because Fangraphs added two wins upon signing Cespedes doesn’t mean he will produce at a 2.0 WAR. Very likely they anticipated the De Aza/Lagares tandem to be at about 4.0 WAR and so Cespedes can still be at 6.3 WAR.
– David Wright did not join the team until August 24th. The roll had long started by then.
– If TDA plays 100 games, we should all be ecstatic. Say he rests twice a week: at 26 weeks that is 52 games off. Also, he has never not been on the DL, so take away another ten games at least. So, 100 games seems to be the ceiling; hope the floor is much higher than last year’s.
TexasGus, you make an excellent point that also supports my thoughts on why FanGraphs win total projections are flawed. Their war projections presuppose that every starter will play a full season. Aside from injuries and trades, i think Flores, Lagares and Plawecki are all going to see significant ABs due to rotations (splits, rest days, dh, slumps, pinch hits, etc)
Most of us make predictions every year. It’s a clear way of documenting how we assess the team, the organization. Because injuries occur, often the prediction is as much about the GM and ownership as it is about the roster.
Last two years, I picked 74 and 87 wins. I won’t pick until the end of ST, but sure, it’s reasonable to see this club as having 100 win potential. I don’t see the problem with saying so.