|
Atlanta Braves |
Miami Marlins |
New York Mets |
Philadelphia Phillies |
Washington Nationals |
| #27 Danby Swanson, SS | #9 Steven Matz, LHP | #4 J.P. Crawford, SS | #3 Lucas Giolito, RHP | |
| #32 Sean Newcomb, LHP | #86 Dominic Smith, 1B | #25 Nick Williams, OF | #13 Trea Turner, SS | |
| #37 Ozhaino Albies, SS | #96 Amed Rosario, SS | #34 Jake Thompson, RHP | #29 Victor Robles, OF | |
| #43 Aaron Blair, RHP | #64 Mark Appel, RHP | #75 Reynaldo Lopez, RHP | ||
| #79 Austin Riley, 3B | #70 Jorge Alfaro, C | |||
| #82 Kolby Alard, LHP | #95 Franklyn Kilome, RHP |
Baseball Prospectus released their list of the Top 101 Prospects recently and it serves as a worthy exercise to see how The Mets are faring against their NL East rivals. After breaking down the list, a few things become readily apparent.
- The Miami Marlins are in dire straits when it comes to their farm system
- Philadelphia and Atlanta are well on their way towards rebuilding their franchises
- The Washington Nationals are still very dangerous
One can make arguments over who should and shouldn’t be on the list but Baseball Prospectus is a well-known and respected name in sports. It’s not hard to argue that their list is the gold standard that other prospect rankings are judged by.
What does this mean?
It means that the coup of signing Yoenis Cespedes to the contract we wanted isn’t the end of the line, it means that New York’s rivals (Those not in Miami) have solid internal candidates to help them defeat the Mets and it means that the Washington Nationals are just as capable of retaking that title of “NL East Frontrunner” as the Mets are to holding onto it.
Baseball is a never ending cycle and the only way to prolong success is to build from within. Hopefully next year the Mets will be adding a few more names to the list and showing off new World Series rings too.
With our draft picks at 21, 31, 64, and 100 this June, and an estimated pool of $7,678,004 (ranked 14th), we can start replenishing the farm system. I like that we got Walker plus a fairly high draft pick, in “exchange” for Murphy.
Plus, potential comp pick from cespedes and walker next year.
Thanks for this. I think it’s been clear for some time that SA & company did not do as good a job on the farm system as had been widely proclaimed. Fair to good, not even very good. They’ve traded for some prospects, and that’s been successful. But in terms of draft and development, I am not very impressed.
Are you serious? You do realize when you promote players, they then come off the list? You have to expect a downturn in top prospects when you graduate D’arnaud, Pawlecki, Syndergaard, Conforto, Flores, Degrom all in a two year period. Also add in Fullmer who they traded for Cespedes. Gimme a break. With multiple high picks this year and then next year they will be able to replenish.
I would type all the names that have MLB debuted as Mets over the past 3 years…but it’s a very long list. There are at least 14 players….. most of them formed the core of last year’s success. They have a lot of very young players and pitchers who established that World Series Team.,
I’ll look at the Broad Side of “The Young Player Category”. The Mets under Alderson have slam dunked everything about adding young talent. My Pain with him is elsewhere.
Since you brought up draft and development…
Harvey
DeGrom
Syndergaard
Matz
Wheeler
Montero
Familia
D’Arnaud
Plawecki
Flores
Lagares
Conforto
Nimmo
Dilson Herrera
Dom Smith
Amed Rosario
Gavin Cecchini
Alderson made many shrewd deals to bolster what we have today. The deals for Beltran and Dickey alone are amazing. Beltran for Wheeler >>> Cespedes for Fulmer.
Sure you can say the Mets missed by selecting Cecchini over Corey Seager but that stuff happens all the time. In addition, the picks we lost by decisions made by Omar Minaya can’t be discounted as well. Yes, some of his picks worked out, but we also lost a lot with dumb signings.
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Justin, your list, which is a hodge-podge, suggest to me that you didn’t understand my criticism of Alderson, who I think has gotten far too much credit for guiding a mediocre farm system. In my way of thinking, I am not giving him credit for drafting players he did not draft, though I think it’s reasonable to say that he’s had some success developing them, though that’s impossible to measure. Also, by focusing on “draft and development,” I am putting players acquired through trade in a different category. And again, yes, he done trading for prospects that other teams have drafted.
Let’s quickly look at your list:
Harvey: Omar drafted.
DeGrom: Omar drafted
Syndergaard: Trade in exchange for Dickey, signed on cheap by Omar
Matz: Omar drafted
Wheeler: Trade in exchange for Beltran
Montero: Omar signed (technically, he signed a month after Omar left, but 98% of the work was done on Omar’s watch)
Familia: Omar
D’Arnaud: See Syndergaard
Plawecki: Sandy (it remains to be seen if this guy is better than Vance Wilson)
Flores: Omar
Lagares: Omar
Conforto: A Sandy Success, 1st Round
Nimmo: SA
Dilson Herrera: Trade in exchange for Byrd
Dom Smith: A Sandy Success, 1st Round
Amed Rosario: SA signing
Gavin Cecchini: SA, 1st Round
So on a list that’s is designed to counter my muted, mild criticism of Sandy Alderson, you give me mostly a bunch of Omar guys and some 1st rounders by SA. You forgot to mention Robles and Mejia, but those are Omar guys too.
I look at the system today, which is finally almost exclusively a result of SA’s five years — he can no longer lean on talent brought in by others — and I’m not particularly impressed. Five of the Mets top twelve prospects are SS, but none of them is close to shortstops already in the system for the Braves, Phillies, or Nationals. There’s very little pitching. And so on.
Of course, yes, he can turn around and trade Omar’s pick, Matt Harvey, and replenish the system. That’s good. But I don’t think it’s that hard to trade Matt Harvey for prospects, though, to be sure, Sandy has been brilliant at those types of trades. Flipping Omar’s guys.
Oh come on. You just couldn’t wait to rain on Sandy’s parade could you Jim?
There are still guys in the pipeline, especially infielders.so not sure what you’re talking about.
Eric, what parade? There will always be guys in the pipeline. It’s a good system and there are seven teams, and so on.
I’m just being realistic about the Mets farm system and the job that SA has done with it, which is wildly overrated by many people.
I hope the next draft is a success.
I don’t think that is very fair, James. If we’re talking about strictly drafted players, Sandy and co. may have left a bit to be desired, but they’ve done a pretty good job of leveraging their assets. I do think you missed the mark on the development, piece, though. I think we can see a clear difference in the way the Alderson and Minaya regimes conducted the development of their minor leaguers. For example, where Minaya rushed players super aggressively perhaps to their detriment (Martinez, Gomez, Pelfrey), Alderson has been very methodical in assignments. I think you’re underselling the development capability of this regime quite a bit, honestly.
Rob, I do agree with the development part of your comment, and have several times in the past credited them for successfully shepherding Omar picks such as Harvey & deGrom & Robles through the system.
I am not saying they are a total disaster. But when you look at players who were drafted by SA, and developed by SA, it’s not a long or impressive list.
I say again, that no team has graduated more impact kids than the Mets these last three years and that dried out the system. However, Alderson’s recent draft choices involved a few reaches that haven’t worked out yet, so until the system gets replenished, the Mets will lag. Hopefully, in three years they will be like the Nationals, strong MLB team and a strong system.
However, how much of the blame is Alderson’s? It helps the Nats that their System spends money in scouting and isn’t afraid to buy airline tickets to go see top talents that are giving showcases in other countries.
Yes, the Phillies and Braves have more players in the top 100 than the Mets. They also are unlikely to be even competitive at the major-league level in 2016. The fact that they acquired some top-100 prospects as part of a full-scale selloff and rebuild is neither surprising nor disturbing.
Prior to the 2015 season, the Mets had a top-5 farm system in the eyes of most experts. They used that strength in precisely the way you’re supposed to — adding helpful pieces to the ML roster (Conforto, Syndergaard, Matz, Plawecki) and trading some pieces (Fulmer, Meisner, Cessa, Gant) for guys who helped win a pennant (Cespedes, Clippard, Johnson, Uribe).
It might be time now to replenish the system some. In addition to what others have said, I would not be astonished to see Harvey traded at the trade deadline or next winter for some blue-chip prospects. But the system is precisely where you would expect it to be given the events of 2015.
After the Shelby Miller trade, one can only imagine what Harvey would bring back- especially if he has the ‘year after the year after TJ’ kinda year that many guys coming off TJ have.
We still have players in the pipeline at many key positions, who will be ready when current contracts expire or get too rich
1B. Dom Smith (2018)
2B. Herrera (not sure why he’s fallen off prospect lists…too many ML ABs?) (2017)
SS. Cheech, Rosario, Carpio (2018, 19)
3B. Urena (2020)
RF. Becerra (2018 or 19)
CF. Nimmo (2017 or 18)
LF. Lindsey (2019)
We need to draft at Catcher and OF, and replenish the pitching now.
I expect Becerra on this list next year.
“The Washington Nationals are still very dangerous”
Since when do you evaluate major league clubs based on top prospect lists? Lol
And to think we could have had a real CF, Fulmer back, got rid of 2 overrated players, and 18 mil extra to spend… if only if only…
And really? Mark Appel is still a top prospect? Is he paying someone off at Baseball prospectus? Or does he have a friend/relative working there?
My point in the statement seems to have been missed
I can’t agree more this guy has been outright awful. He like Nimmo are on prospect lists for draft position and not accomplishments.
The goal as we heard it was sustained quality in the pipeline. This has been a total fail. I think this article does an excellent job at recognizing that if you only trade well and fail to draft well, it is hard to keep the pipeline fully stocked. It is hard to imagine the high schoolers value so far off. It looks like Dom Smith has a chance to make it, possibly Rosario. It’s thin past that.
Well, the good thing is that in the end Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s top prospect rankings… are all just projection systems. And we all know how reliable those are…
Just to point out, last year’s squad featured ~half of our lineup that didn’t make any top prospect list – Duda, Murphy, Lagares, Tejada, Campbell
I’ll see how difficult it would be to list the MLB contributors promoted by the various NL East teams over the past several seasons. If I can sort through it, I’ll make a post evaluating our rivals recent farm system successes.
That the Philles and Braves have stocked farms is more a testament to them tanking and trading away all their veterans than it is to scouting and drafting prowess.
My take is the Braves do not have an elite farm system unless a bunch of guys hit their upside.
I put in 2016 mlb farm rankings into Google and Bleacher Report (ugh) came back. They had the Braves rated third overall. But they also had Sean Newcomb rated as the system’s second-best prospect. I think the jury is still very much out on Newcomb. I just have a hard time balancing how a team could be ranked so highly and yet have such a question mark ranked 2nd.
I love the arguments you gentleman are putting out there, but the fact is that much of the Braves and Phillies replenished farm system came from trades. Everyone likes to hate or love SA. Yet it is he who made the trades that stocked this system with talent like the prior 2 teams mentioned did as well. When you look at the system there are some very bright spots down lower that they are developing and aren’t mentioned. Yes credit can go to both Omar and SA, but Omar lost many picks as well in signings of FA’s that didn’t work out. Compound that with ownership investment fiasco….. Let that sink in…..we were forced to rebuild. Hopefully we keep the system stocked and don’t spend like a drunken sailor like our fan base wants done. Ladies and gentleman, FA is no longer what it once was, it has become a young man’s game of cheap, controllable talent. FA is what fills the holes you can’t fill from within the system in that manner.