The reporting date for Mets pitchers and catchers is less than a month away. Can you believe it? The team is fresh off a World Series appearance, the elite rotation is a year older and wiser, and they got their man in re-signing Yoenis Cespedes to bolster the lineup. Things are looking good for the team and their fans at the moment and good spirits abound.
That doesn’t stop us from taking a quick glance into the future on a slow day, though. We’re looking two years into the future, in fact, and specifically opining about the condition of the outfield once Curtis Granderson‘s contract has expired. Cespedes is also, presumably, a year removed from his stint on the team after having opted out after the first year of his three-year contract. What does the 2018 New York Mets outfield alignment look like?
We’ll have to make some assumptions here, of course. First, Michael Conforto figures to have solidified himself as a dominant lineup presence and entrenched himself in left field. Second, Juan Lagares righted himself, either through a new conditioning regiment or through surgery, and has been a staple in center field since Cespedes left for his big contract in 2017. Finally, the Mets haven’t chosen to fill the hole in right field via trade (of someone like, say, Matt Harvey) or free agency.
On that latter point, there will be a slew of mostly underwhelming free agent outfield options to whom the Mets may be compelled to offer one of their infamous low risk, low salary contracts. For this exercise, however, we’re going to assume that the team will go with one of their exciting in-house options. In this case, those options boil down to Brandon Nimmo or Wuilmer Becerra.
Barring some catastrophic injury or under-performance, it’s likely that Nimmo spent most or parts of 2017 playing in all three outfield spots for the big league team. Of course, there are certainly scenarios in which Nimmo may already be a starter in 2017 at some point. Lagares may never have rediscovered that player he was in 2014 and Nimmo still projects to be able to be an adequate center fielder. Likewise, perhaps Granderson simply fell off of a cliff after his great 2015 season and is now essentially a very expensive bench player. Again, for the purpose of this exercise let’s assume these awful things did not occur.
That would make Nimmo the incumbent starter in right field. That’s certainly not just a formality, however, since it’s quite possible that Becerra spent his 2017 banging on the major league door with his performance. The choice could very well come down to these two prospects in 2018.
Back here in 2016, the statuses of these two prospects is quite interesting. By most accounts, Nimmo is currently the more highly regarded prospect. Some of that has to do with his draft pedigree. Some of it has to do with his performance. Some of it has to do with his proximity to the majors. Becerra, after all, hasn’t played a single game above Low-A. Still, the general feeling is that 2016 is a very important year for Nimmo. Is it make or break? Maybe not quite, but it’s not unfair to say that optimism for Nimmo may be trending just a tad downward while many believe Becerra has a real shot to have a huge breakout year in 2016.
Becerra is an exciting prospect in his own right, though he’s not had as much attention as Nimmo besides his notoriety for being a throw-in in the R.A. Dickey trade. Again, that has a lot to do with Nimmo’s draft pedigree as a first-round pick. It should be noted, though, that Becerra was one of the top international free agents in his class and signed for a pretty large sum.
What this comes down to here in this scenario is this: which prospect do you think has a better shot at becoming an average-or-better right fielder in the major leagues? Obviously they’re just prospects at this point, and 2018 may actually be a bit optimistic for Becerra, but we can have some fun here anyway.
Nimmo’s 2016 in AA/AAA: .269/.362/.372, 48 BB, 78 SO, .734 OPS, 5 HR 5/6 SB/CS
Becerra’s 2016 in Low-A: .290/.342/.423, 33 BB, 96 SO, .765 OPS, 9 HR, 16/8 SB/CS
These are two solid performances. Nimmo was better at getting on base. He struck out less and walked more, though he showed less power overall. Becerra hit for a nice average, got on base just fine (though he struck out more and walked less) and hit for more power. Becerra also provided more value on the base paths in terms of stolen bases.
Two important pieces of context need to be noted here. Nimmo did this at the highest levels of the minors while Becerra was at the lowest stop in full-season ball. That’s a big deal. On the other hand, Becerra put up those numbers while playing his home games in Grayson Stadium. In fact, he performed better in Savannah than Nimmo at the same age (though Nimmo was dealing with some health issues). Granted, that stadium is tougher on lefties (like Nimmo) than on righties (like Becerra), but it’s a tough environment nonetheless.
Nimmo may be rounding into his ultimate profile, which is not quite what many had hoped. His power hasn’t developed as many had believed it could, and though he could probably play a decent center field, he’s more likely to wind up a right fielder long term. That pegs him as a high-OBP doubles hitter with above average defense in right field. That’s not really your typical corner outfielder profile, but it’s not something to dismiss out of hand.
Becerra, on the other hand, has shown your more typical profile for right field. He’s athletic with blossoming power, a strong arm, and good range. He also has solid platoon splits while Nimmo has struggled throughout his career to his left-handed pitching. In short, Becerra is rounding into what we hoped Nimmo would be if he wasn’t able to stick in center field.
We’ve no way of predicting what the roster situation will be in 2018, obviously, nor can we know how these two prospects will ultimately pan out. Perhaps the Mets do trade Harvey and acquire a high-end right fielder. Maybe both of these prospects flame out spectacularly. Either way, 2016 is an important year for both of them but in very different ways. For Nimmo, he can prove that the Mets didn’t reach too far when they used their first pick in 2011 to select him. For Becerra, 2016 could be the year his name is launched into the top-prospect stratosphere. Maybe we’re just ready for some baseball. Let’s go Mets.
Name the last youngster this regime handed a job to. They don’t even trust kids to the fifth starter’s role for half a year! They didn’t trust Lagares and signed a reclamation project in CY, or either MDD or Kirk and signed a “lead off” hitter in EY. Herrera is still in the minors but they brought him up in 2014. Why was he up if he wasn’t ready, or even close? MDD was benched in September for Mike Baxter!!!! Mike Baxter, who was released the day following the season’s end! I know everyone thinks MDD stinks, but at that time we still had hopes for him and to be benched for that stiff? And next year again for a 40 year old on his way out? Actually I thought the Abreu thing was classy, just no other team was willing to do it, but again there wasn’t an opportunity for the younger player. No team is the last hope for a player quite like the Mets and their “veteran” love. I guess being a Marine makes Alderson love all “veterans”.
Wilmer Flores last year? D’Arnaud the year before that. Conforto this year.
They hand them the jobs either when they think they are ready or have earned it, or if they have no other option. Just like every other major league team.
They had jobs to the youngsters that actually have big league talent. On top of Flores, Conforto, and TdA you can add Tejada. I think it’s reasonable to expect Hererra in 2017.
The problem with Nimmo is that like MdD, KN, and Lagares, they really are 4th or 5th outfielders. I think there is very little chance that Nimmo is playing RF on an every day basis post Grandy unless this year is a break out.
I think Eric and Chris hit it well here. It seems as though they’ve got a good idea on what they think they have in their players. Sometimes they hit (Duda vs Davis) and sometimes they miss (Turner), but I I think they go to war with who they have if they think they can handle it (or if better options simply aren’t available).
Terry Collins, on the other hand…well. He loves his veterans.
But they’ve been incredibly, over-the-top risk averse with their young guys throughout Alderson’s tenure. You can, I guess, make an argument for that strategy now, with anything short of a playoff appearance a disappointment. But you couldn’t make that argument previously, when we were forced to watch guys like Rick Ankiel or Daisuke Matsuzaka or Bobby Abreu or either Chris Young in seasons where expectations were low, rather than give a shot to a minor league guy.
The default position is that the minor league guy is going to flop and the veteran will produce. And we’ve seen enough flops from the veterans to know this is not true. It’s not to say that all of the minor league guys will succeed. But how many minor league/young guys got the 287 PA shot in a partial season that OF Chris Young got? Off the top of my head, the only one who got that was Kirk Nieuwenhuis in his first year.
And the only reason he got that many is because he hit right away. There’s nothing wrong with playing the hot hand. What is wrong is making blanket judgments on young guys who don’t come up to the majors hitting the second they arrive. Every player goes through hot and cold streaks throughout the year.
Curtis Granderson had a great year last year. But he had two stretches where he didn’t hit much at all. From May 19-June 9, he hit .191 and had a .624 OPS in 80 PA. And from April 6-27, the very beginning of the year, he hit .212 with a .646 OPS in 81 PA.
Do you think they would put up with a .646 OPS in the first 20 games from a youngster? Conforto had a .782 OPS after 20 games. Nieuwnhuis had an .829 mark. It’s hit right away or take a trip back to the minors.
This administration gives much longer rope to veterans than guys with little or no experience. And it doesn’t have anything to do with “think they can handle it.” It has everything to do with, here’s a brief shot – hit right away or else. Josh Satin hits in 2013 right away, so he gets a chance. He has a .143 BABIP after 43 PA in 2014 and hits the highway. Why did they think he could handle it in 2013 but not 2014? Because he had the great misfortune to be cold right away the latter year. That’s the only difference.
The Mets made a decision on 43 PA with a (relatively) young guy in Satin, despite the fact he hit well for them the year before. But they give 287 PA to a guy who stunk the year before and who they never saw play good in their uniform. There’s a bias against young guys. Now, you can – to a certain extent – defend that bias. But one thing you cannot do is deny the bias exists.
Isn’t the main difference that he veterans have delivered quality performances at the big league level and so understand how to do so infinitely more than a rookie who needs to find his way through the clubhouse with a map every day? You cannot deny past performance. Take Grandy and the back of his baseball card. I take him all day every day over every rookie OF the Mets had laying around…and it paid off. Not all do, of course.
Where I’m in complete agreement is that we needed to get the young kids critical playing time to see their potential performance capabilities when we had 4 years of rebuilding. Abreu, Young, Ankiel were gigantic blunders by the FO, and the quote by Collins of “we have games to win” 3 years ago was criminal. We had no hope and should have given every kid with promise extended big league exposure. Now however, that is not a luxury this team has unless you are like Conforto…and even then… (I’m looking at you Joc Pederson).
Certainly, the veterans have to some extent done it before. But the question is how much value should you put on that? Chris Young had declined in three straight years before we signed him. Why was the default position to expect 2010 rather than 2013 when we signed him?
To be fair, I was in favor of that signing when it was made. I probably defended him longer than most. But even I gave up on him before the Mets did.
With Granderson, even when he struggled in 2014, it was at least as much his contract as his past performance which drove his continued playing time. But my point in bringing him up earlier was that even a veteran, one who was as productive as Granny in 2015, has cold streaks. It’s the nature of the beast. But from this front office’s POV, veterans have cold streaks and youngsters “need more seasoning.”
I just hope that when Dominic Smith, or anyone’s favorite hitting prospect comes up, that the Mets give him a Chris Young opportunity.
Chris Young (sadly both Chris Young’s) are very interesting examples. OF Chris Young went on to hit pretty well across town, enough to earn a multi year contract now. He really was only a bust in Queens. P Chris Young has an even better post Mets history, including beating us stupid in a WS game, and he has a WS ring. All things considered it is reasonable to envision giving them time to perform.
The thing with a rookie is that there is simply now way to compare a 3 for 30 streak against a vet, who understands how to get out of the tailspin.
My opinion is that you’re assigning some type of mythical super power to both veterans and the game at the MLB level.
Question: At what point does a player acquire these powers? For instance, does Kirk Nieuwenhuis now possess this veteran ability? He’s certainly struggled numerous times in his four years in the majors. But in his most recent stint with the Mets, he posted a .279/.364/.559 line. I know he’s with another club now, but if he gets off to a poor start after 20 games, should he get the Curtis Granderson treatment or the Josh Satin treatment?
For sure not, because he has never been an every day player. He’s forever locked into being “not good enough” unlike either of the Young’s I mentioned, or a guy like Byrd (is he still doping?). Look Im not saying every old veteran is a slam dunk. We could got through a string of disasters in recent history from Abreu to Frank Frank, but Im glad we had Uribe last year, because I dont want to give another AB to Campbell for any reason under the sun.
Their willingness to play through young players struggles will be tested this season. Pitchers and Positional pleyers included—they ahve many young guys who will hit some patches.
They can only get to the upside of Conforto, Matz, Syndergaard, Plawecki, and Herrera by living through the struggles that will come. They have a good enough core to carry some of those struggles.
It seems you and Chris have discussed this through mostly, so all I’ll say is that this team has definitely shown a bias towards veterans when they shouldn’t have. I believe I’ve written some stuff explicitly calling them out on this (Lagares was one a few years ago, I think). I agree with you that during the losing years they should definitely have played youngsters with potential over guys like freaking Ankiel. The “games to win” mentality was annoying as it stunk of Collins’ concern with his job and the team’s misguided thought that being mediocre rather than awful would appease fans.
That being said, we’ve gotta give the benefit of the doubt in a way to these guys in their overall assessments of their own players, I think. Maybe the Mets just saw Satin, as an example, for what he was and rode the hot hand until it could be ridden no more. He spent his age 30 season being bad in AAA for the Reds, for what it’s worth.
Yes, but they wouldn’t let Conforto face lefties even though he hit them fine in the minors.
Any medical update on Legares? His talent is real, so I wonder how much injury impacted him.
Juan played winter ball and did well. He’s good to,go.
I read it more and more. Nimmo is a bust. Its been 5 years and has goo OBP but that’s it. If he wasn’t a first round pick we would not even know who he is. He is going to get a cup of coffee be awful sent down and the sign minor league contracts for few years because of draft position.
I still hesitate to call him a bust, probably beyond all reason at this point. He’s fallen off of top 100 lists, though, so I mean the writing is on the wall at this point. 2016 is big for him.
I wouldn’t assume that Nimmo will be a bust, either; but in considering him I always remember the video clip of his batting cage work right after he was signed. He could barely make contact against lefthanded pitching.
Of course Nimmo had never seen much lefthanded pitching in Wyoming to that point. The Mets just assumed he would make the adjustment in signing him. Many players never do.
A platoon outfielder with pretty good defense and nominal power, who will take a walk. And one who gets hurt a lot; it’s not a rosy projection.
Nimmo will be 23 this season…doesn’t look like an early superstar, but he’s been productive at increasing Levels, when Healthy. Some guys make it…some don’t—but this doesn’t yet scream wasted/dead pick.
A LH Bat with a Glove that can play some Centerfield … he has a shot at a career.
I agree that I think he has a shot at some kind of career even if he doesn’t live up to his draft status.
Rob,
Thanks for a well written article. Speculating that far down the road is hard but you give good perspective on the two young players. I feel that Nimmo’s lack of power will likely limit his major league career to backup status at best. Becerra has a ways to go but of the two I think he has the potential to be a major league regular.
Thanks, Larry! It’s looking like that may be the endgame for Nimmo, but I do still think he’s young enough and that his background is such that he may still yet break out. 2016 is important for him, and it doesn’t help that he’s already hurt.
I was Becerra a few times last year and as the season progressed he improved. He is a 5 tool player and impressed me defensively in right field. He seems to be the real deal.
Nimmo needs a strong year in 2016 so that if Lagares does not step up then Brandon can at least slide in as a platoon partner if Cespedes leaves in 2017.
Right now my gut feeling is that Becerra will be the better MLB player.