The Mets had an unexpected World Series appearance last year, the team seems to have a solid shot at back-to-back playoff appearances and generally speaking, most fans right now are pretty optimistic. As they should be. However, it seems like there’s something bubbling right below the surface. Let’s call it entitlement.
Sure, the Mets had a golden year in 2015 but c’mon after all the suffering that went on before that, the Mets were due! Overdue, in fact. But is this really true? No one’s arguing that the recent past before 2015 was fun. But to hear some corners talk about it, the Mets wandered in the desert for 40 years. It’s reminiscent of the time right around when Sandy Alderson was hired when everyone was complaining about the albatross contracts of Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez.
So, let’s shoot for a little context. The chart below, which includes the current National League teams, is taken for the last 20 years. There’s nothing magical about 20 years. There are no strike-shortened seasons in that time frame. Also, it eliminates the first three years of the ’93 expansion teams but not the World Series appearances for the Marlins, so that seems good. It leaves the Diamondbacks with only 18 years, which seems bad. Overall, it’s not perfect, it’s not awful, so it will do.
| Team | Playoff App. | Yrs since last | Longest drought | 90+ Losses | O/U .500 | Most Losses 5 | WS Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 8 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 17-3 | 392 | 0-0 |
| Cardinals | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 17-3 | 395 | 2-2 |
| Braves | 13 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 16-4 | 399 | 0-2 |
| Giants | 7 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 14-6 | 427 | 3-1 |
| Diamondbacks | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 8-8-2 | 434 | 1-0 |
| Mets | 4 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 10-10 | 436 | 0-2 |
| Reds | 3 | 2 | 14 | 4 | 5-14-1 | 448 | 0-0 |
| Padres | 4 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 7-13 | 451 | 0-1 |
| Phillies | 5 | 4 | 11+ | 4 | 10-9- 1 | 458 | 1-1 |
| Marlins | 2 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 6-14 | 459 | 2- 0 |
| Cubs | 5 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 8-12 | 464 | 0-0 |
| Rockies | 2 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 6-14 | 465 | 0-1 |
| Brewers | 2 | 4 | 12+ | 5 | 5- 15 | 477 | 0-0 |
| Nationals | 2 | 1 | 16+ | 9 | 7-12- 1 | 478 | 0-0 |
| Pirates | 3 | 0 | 17+ | 10 | 3- 17 | 488 | 0-0 |
The Mets have four playoff appearances in this span, which puts them in the middle of the pack. Six teams have fewer, seven teams have more and they are tied with another team. Obviously, the Mets are in good shape with the next column, having made the playoffs last year. But any fan will tell you before that it was eight years since their previous playoff berth. How does that compare?
Again, it was pretty much middle of the pack. Eight teams had longer playoff droughts, including three of the other four teams in the NL East. Six teams did not have to wait as long between playoff appearances.
Okay, it’s one thing if your team doesn’t make the playoffs – but what about rooting for a team that’s just really bad? Using 90 losses as a proxy for really bad teams, the Mets have reached that level four times. How does that rate? It’s not bad at all. Only four teams had fewer really bad seasons, seven had more of these downer years and three had just as many.
Well, 90 losses is pretty arbitrary. An 89-loss season is just as bad. The Mets just finished six straight losing seasons and only one of those reached 90. Moving to the “Most Losses 5” column, which is how this chart is sorted, this is the most losses over a five-consecutive-year period. Only six NL teams had fewer losses over their worst five consecutive seasons than the Mets. Again, pretty much middle of the pack.
The Mets had 10 seasons in the last 20 where they finished under .500 for the year. How does that rate? Eight teams had more than 10 seasons with more losses than wins. This is nowhere near the worst rate in the league. In fact, stop me if you’ve heard this before, this is pretty much middle of the pack.
Finally, the Mets have made it to the World Series twice in the last 20 years, which puts them a little bit above the pack. Nine teams in the league made it once or none at all, three others made it twice and only the Cardinals and Giants have made more Fall Classic appearances.
Overall, we can see that what the Mets have produced over the last 20 years is pretty much what an average club has done in the league. In this span, it’s generally been more fun to be a fan of the Braves, Cardinals or Giants. It’s also generally been less fun to be rooting for the Pirates, Reds and Rockies. And nothing is written in stone, either. While in the past 20 years the Braves have had great success, that hasn’t been the case lately and their chances look bleak in 2016, too. And the same thing in reverse for the Pirates.
No doubt, some of this is due to the Mets’ poor play being a recent thing. Six straight below .500 years. And here’s something not in the chart where the Mets are near the bottom. Only three teams had more consecutive losing seasons. But three teams had just as many. Also, would you rather be a team like the Padres, whose longest streak was five but who had just one winning season in the last eight, no playoff appearances in that span and little hope for a Mets-like turnaround in the immediate future?
There’s little debate that 2009-2014 wasn’t fun. But nine of the other 14 teams in the league have gone through a stretch of five or more consecutive losing seasons sometime in the past 20 years. Just because the Mets have done it recently doesn’t make what they did unusual. And just like with the Castillo and Perez contracts, Mets fans should stop acting like no one else experienced what they went through.
Really nicely developed Brian. I think this kind of perspective of objective reality should be the kind of thing we as fans appreciate. It is a funny thing with preconception, fandom, and passion: folks lose reality. I read a paper recently by a physicist who teaches Newtonian mechanics (F=ma kind of stuff) at the college level who recognized that students will learn things that run counter to preconceived notions that are wrong in order to get a good grade, but the second the course is over the students rapidly return to misbelieving reality.
Met fans seem to be trapped in a world of (1) as you point out, bad beyond recognition followed by (2) bouts of hysterical glory…win 5 games in a row and we are 95+ game winners and WS shoe-ins for absolute certain.
Thanks Chris.
The hope now is that the Mets can rip off a sustained run of strong performance. Generally, that’s been their M.O. Compare that to the Diamondbacks, who in the past 12 years have been .500 or under nine times. But two of the times they had a winning record, they popped up with 90 and 94 wins. I don’t think the Mets are going to revert to sub .500 play. But I’m guessing fans of the 2007 and 2011 D’Backs felt the same way…
Great piece, Brian. I forgot for a minute how long the Pirates were terrible. I’m happy for their fans. The Cardinals are a very well run organization.
Fan is short for Fanatic.
Sports offer nothing if not the irrational exuberance and expectation of a new season, and the thrills and agonies that can only come through the “devotional” of a true Fan(atic).
From First Thaw to first frost…… 162 games, day by day….. with each and every pitch and swing…….
…. do not reason with me. Reason would make it all go away!
Reason doesn’t make it go away.
Actually, I’d suggest the exact opposite. Reason adds to the joy. Once you have reason, you stop doing things like complaining about how hard the Mets had it immediately prior to 2015.
Here’s an all time w/l for all the franchises:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/
The Mets sit in 21st Position as WL %….480
Since 1986, the Mets have won their Division 4 times. The Phils have taken the title 6 times. The Braves have won the division 12 times.
If you remove the 1986, 1988 Met teams, they have won the division 2 times in that span.
The Mets were the Darlings of NY in the mid and late 80’s. Since that time, their City Neighbors have re-taken the city and the Suburbs Lock, Stock, and Barrel.
The Mets nearest and most compelling competitors have outperformed them heavily over the past 30 years. With sporadic exceptions, the Mets have been largely outperformed by the Phillies, The Braves (Especially!!!), and the Yankees.
Yes…. frustration with being on losing end of each of these rivalries has greatly fueled perceptions that may be darker than reality; but not by much.
Their all-time record is at less than .500, sitting in 21st place of currect rosters and They’ve performed poorly versus their chief and most visible rivals. They own very scant Georgraphy as the dominant team in their own Market— a Market they abdicated. This is not a record that reflects meerly on the period immediately preceding their present success.
I believe the low opinion of the Franchise and it’s Ownership are well founded and well earned by the Franchise, and specifically the Present Owners.
I’ll just go back to my irrational Love with The Name on the front of the Jersey and Ignore all of that.
Well, they’re still being hurt by their 340-something below .500 record in the first seven years of their existence, when they had to compete under rules that were less-friendly than the previous year’s AL expansion teams, much less what the 1990s expansion clubs operated under. It’s not a coincidence that 13 of the bottom 17 teams in winning percentage are expansion franchises.
I’m not going to add at this point but in the last 30 years the Phillies have been over .500 12 times. The Mets have been over .500 15 times and they both are 1-2 in WS appearances.