The 2016 National League is sharply divided between haves and have nots. Six teams, two in each division, are in rebuilding mode, stripped bare of quality veterans, save a few overpaid, untradeable ones. The other nine, three in each division, are talented enough to compete for one of the five playoff spots.
The have nots should provide some easy wins for the competitive teams. The Phillies, Braves, Padres, Rockies, Reds and Brewers have all been trading assets for prospects the past few seasons. While this familiar tear-down-to-build-up approach is bearing fruit for the Mets, Astros and Cubs now, these six teams aren’t likely to see the light at the end of the tunnel for another two seasons.
The Phillies, still stuck with an aging, overpaid and utterly untradeable Ryan Howard, have him and fellow glory days holdover Carlos Ruiz surrounded by rookies in the field, the rotation and the bullpen. And most of their top prospects aren’t there yet. It will be a long season for Phillies fans. The same is true for Atlanta fans who’ve held onto first baseman and Mets killer Freddie Freeman and pitcher Julio Tehran as a building blocks, but have otherwise traded away every player of value, including superstar shortstop Andrelton Simmons. Thanks to their lopsided trade of Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks, they have a stockpile of top talent in the minors so they plan to be competitive again, just not in 2016. They will, however, be a little better than the Phillies thanks to the additions of Erik Aybar and Ender Inciarte.
The Padres still have a couple of decent pitchers and an overpaid, untradeable former star of their own in Matt Kemp. However, they are also void of talent and desperately trying to hit the reset button following an ill-conceived 2014 spending spree. The Rockies still hold some talent and a few trade chips on the offensive side – namely Carlos Gonzalez – but their pitching staff may be the worst in the league.
The Reds and the Brewers were talented teams not too long ago, but just didn’t have the revenue to support the necessary payroll so Cincinnati traded away most of its rotation and closer, while Milwaukee traded away everyone but Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy – though rumor has it he’ll be gone by spring training. Like Colorado, Cincinnati still has enough bats to score runs, but lacks the pitching to compete.
Last year’s playoff teams – the Mets, Cubs, Cardinals, Pirates and Dodgers will all be competitive again, as will 2014 playoff teams hurt by injuries last year – the Nationals and Giants. The other two – the Diamondbacks and Marlins, may be a little short of the rest, but they have enough talent to play .500 and maybe jump into the fray with a bold midseason move.
The Marlins hope for full seasons from ace pitcher Jose Fernandez and big bopper Giancarlo Stanton, as well as continue improvement from some of their younger players. They added free agent pitcher Wei-Yin Chen to round out a potentially strong rotation, but their bullpen is a weakness. Similarly, the Diamondbacks made a huge splash in free agency to bolster their starting staff and have a decent lineup, but not much of a bullpen. These are, in this writer’s estimation, the weakest of the nine contenders.
As for the big seven fighting for five playoff spots, the Dodgers appear a little weaker due to losing Zack Grienke, but have three stud prospects coming up. The Nationals, similarly, lost a few key cogs in the offseason, but have a few studs in the pipeline. They return a top flight rotation and the reigning MVP. The Cardinals will also have to overcome a few free agent losses and their lineup doesn’t look particularly strong going into the season, but they’re getting ace Adam Wainwright back to front a deep pitching staff that led them to a 100-win season. The Pirates will return a similar team built around pitching, defense, contact hitting and star outfielder Andrew McCutcheon.
Meanwhile, the Cubs and Giants were aggressive players this offseason, both in free agency and trades. Both added veterans to their rotations and the Giants may still be in play for a bat. The well-coached, well-rounded Giants hope to keep their even-yeared run of success alive.
It’s a good thing the Mets were equally aggressive in shaping their roster this offseason, because 2016 will be a very competitive one in the National League.
This article never seems to go anywhere. I mean, when was the last time an entire league wasn’t competitive?
In most years there are more middle of the pack team that could swing either way. With this trend of NFL style tear down to build up strategy, there is a very clear delineation between haves and havenots. I’d bet my house that not one of those six havenot teams will even sniff the playoffs. That’s unusual. Nearly all of the league’s talent is consolidated among 9 teams. I’m not sure a team of all stars from the six bottom feeders would make the playoffs. There’s not an ace or good closer to be found.
If I’m not mistaken, a lot of NL talent drifted over to the AL this off-season.
A lot of top closers went to the AL, but otherwise i think the cross league movement was balanced. AL added Upton, Zimmermann, Simmons, et al. NL added Zobrist, Cueto, Samardzia, Chen. 3 pretty big name FAs still floating out there could tip the scales.
i’m very interested to see where Fowler, Desmond and Gallardo wind up. The Angels could really benefit from Fowler and any number of teams could use Gallardo. Desmond looks like an idiot for not signing that big contract Washington offered him a year or so ago.
The AL offers a lot more parody. Other than the A’s, who always seem to overachieve, no team is in blatant rebuild mode. There are six truly bad teams in baseball and they are all in the NL.