As the New York Mets begin Spring Training, one of their promising pitchers arrived to camp, eager to begin his second full season after enduring Tommy John surgery. Headlines and rumors flooded as Matt Harvey spoke to reporters about a possible contract extension with the team. Although various outlets have reported that he is open to an extension, it seems highly unlikely that the Mets and Harvey will reach an extension before he is eligible to become a free agent.
Want to know how to publicly generate a big splash when returning from the offseason? Simple, give the media, fans and organization some news they are eager to hear. It is a great public relations move on behalf of Scott Boras and Harvey. This move paints Harvey in a preferable light, as many people have speculated that the 26-year-old pitcher will hit free agency in order to make the most money he can make. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that, as athletes have to make a living. Luckily, Harvey has one of the best agents in Boras, who been great at negotiating on behalf of his clients. Why not hit the open market, rather than limiting yourself to negotiating with one team? Here are some reasons why Harvey will not be signed to a long-term contract before the 2018 season.
Possible Long-Term Extensions with other Pitchers
With the amount of talent on this Mets pitching staff, the front office may decide to negotiate with other pitchers, knowing that they may be able to sign pitchers such as Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler to team-friendly extensions to keep them around for a while. This is not to say the extensions will be cheap, but if the team signs other pitchers to deals first, it will be interesting to see how the team handles negotiations with Harvey if the team locks down one or two other pitchers.
Other Players on the Books
The Mets were smart in negotiating with their captain, David Wright, as the team wanted to pay him up front, as he is earning $20 million from 2014 to 2018, which is Harvey’s last season under team control. In 2019, the then 36-year-old Wright will earn $15 million, and $12 million the year after. If the Mets plan to keep their young talent together, they will have to re-sign Travis d’Arnaud, Jeurys Familia, and Wilmer Flores. Who knows how much their salaries will add up to, but they will most likely be on the books. Other players, such as Michael Conforto, deGrom, Syndergaard and Wheeler will be up for free agency quickly after 2018, so the Mets will have to allocate funds to plenty of players. Lucas Duda could also be on the books come 2019, but the Mets may go with Dominic Smith, so we will have to wait and see what happens at that point.
Hitting the Open Market
Whether we like it or not, it makes sense for Harvey to hit free agency. The Mets have plenty of pitching, and teams that are in desperate need of pitching will spend loads of money to acquire an ace. Look at the Arizona Diamondbacks this offseason. The Diamondbacks have Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock fronting their offense, while lacking a true ace. That is why the team spent $206 million over six years to acquire Zack Greinke. In a couple more seasons, who knows how much money a team in need of pitching will be willing to spend on Harvey, especially since he will be 30 when the 2019 season begins.
Even though Harvey said he is open to an extension, the chances of it happening any time soon are low. Mets fans would probably love to see the Dark Night be locked up by the Mets, but there is more money to be received if Harvey goes into free agency. We will see what Boras and Harvey decide to do in the next few years.
One variable that remains to be seen. If the Mets are as good this year and next as we all think they’ll be, they will see massive revenue boosts from increaed ticket sales, concessions, parking, merch, tv revenue, etc. between higher expected attendance and the cash cow that is an extended playoff run, the Mets could have more money than ever to spend on payroll. I would love nothing more than to keep Harvey, Thor and deGrom Mets for life. I’d like to think there’s at least a glimmer of that possibility.
So can you really envision the Mets spending >80 M$/yr on 3 players?
There’s room for creativity. Lets say each player gets a 5/125 deal. They don’t all have to be structured the same way. One can be front loaded, one back loaded and one midlle loaded. That way instead of paying out 75 a year, you’re paying out 60 or 65.
Not gonna happen. No way, no how.
Right now they are spending $63 million on Cespedes (assuming he opts out), Wright and Granderson. That’s 45% of a $140 million payroll.
We know they’re comfortable sinking this much payroll into three players. So, they’d need to up it to the 170 million range to keep that percentage to pay out $80 million to the top 3. We just saw the payroll jump around $35 million after one successful season. Is it unrealistic to expect another similar jump if they have three consecutive successful seasons?
I’m not sure I would go with comfortable…although they did.
that number also has no arb numbers for Wheeler and Matz, which are gonna add 10-15M$ more by 2018.
Harvey is the first out, with a chance to reel in a haul. And its my guess thats what happens. Boras will want 300M$ for Harvey’s autograph. No way no how does that happen in queens.
My opinion is that the arb numbers will have no impact on their ability to retain three pitchers, assuming they continue to make the playoffs.
of course, not alone, but by the time you offer 300M$ to Harvey and 250M$ to deGrom, those arb numbers of another 15-20M$ is gonna hurt.
Don’t worry, deGrom will struggle to get 150 mil during his entire career (but he’ll be plenty well off with less than half of that)… He’ll be 30 before he starts making more than the min, and 32 before he tops 10mil. He’ll be lucky to get a 5 year deal that can take him to his 36-37 age season at that point. Maybe even less when the D-backs GM (and hopefully other GMs)learn the hard way that it’s not wise to give out major money to a player in his 30s
It’s no surprise he’ll be the one that will be pushing for the extension the most, because he’s already almost at 30 with FA still eons away
Also, arb numbers rarely get past 15 mil, and that’s usually only in the last year of arb. High end of ranges are 7mil/13mil/20mil
Strasburg got 4mil/7.4mil/10.4mil so something like 4mil/8mil/12mil is a better estimate of the arb years. Add 2-3 mil per year if they make Super 2.
Noah will have the chance to earn the most in his career, because he debuted at the youngest age and so far hasn’t had any major injuries unlike Harvey
yeah, deGrom will get less good call. I was thinking arb on Matz and Wheeler.
I believe they will lock these guys in as soon as they can. Harvey has another 3 seasons until he’s a Free Agent. He’s many pitches and many dollars away from FA…same with Noah.
My current feeling is that they will eventually move to lock up deGrom and Syndergaard — and that a 3rd massive contract for a pitcher would not be prudent, and may not be feasible.
I also think they can sit on this for another year.
I love Matt Harvey — he’s the best of the bunch — but I think trading him could yield a very positive return. Just look at what the Braves got for Shelby Miller. The question is when. My sense is that Harvey will seek to become the highest paid pitcher in baseball. This will be a huge decision. The timing, the trade details, all of it.
Matz is a question mark at this point in time, no worries there. And Wheeler is, too.
So that’s my take: 2 big extensions, max. So take your pick.
They will not be able to keep these 5 aces together. They will sign the three that want to be Mets – likely deGrom, Matz and Thor and trade Harvey and Wheeler who will be free agents first in 2018 and then 2019, respectively.
They should be able to reload with young pitchers and position players from those trades and keep the other three locked up.
I would guess that Harvey will be traded at the deadline 2017 or 2018 and Wheeler 2019. In season trades will let them get back multiple top level prospects or young talent .
I would love to see all 5 together but economics tell us we can not invest $100 million or more in 5 starting pitchers, when Tommy John could wipe each of them out.
My hope is that we see the World Series a few more times before we need to start dealing with the financial realties of baseball.
No way Cespedes books after one year. He is going to own New York.
Harvey says he is open to an extension. He is three years away from free agency at age 29. A three year extension would commit the Mets to a six years that would take Harvey through his prime years. He is already signed this year to $4.33. If Harvey were to ask for a larger contract than Kershaw then those last 3 would be in the neighborhood of 3/ 108-111 . David Price made 2/24 in his two arbitration years after his $4.35 arb year so let’s add 2/26 for Matt and the Mets will need to come up with a 5/137 deal to keep Harvey through his prime years. A two year extension would probably be in the neighborhood of 4/102. These last set of numbers are not daunting since we are talking about one of the best pitchers in the game. If Harvey is not open to the extension under these terms then maybe in the winter of 2017 the Mets look for a Shelby Miller type trade. Letting a player like Harvey walk in 2019 for a comp draft pick should never be allowed to happen.
Historically, in Oakland, Sandy opted to retain his stud pitchers through the end of their contracts rather than trading them.
Fun to speculate but there are far too many variables in play to predict this outcome. Locking up Harvey, trading him for a haul or getting every inning we can out of him plus a draft pick are all possible. The outcome will depend on team success and finances, player success and health, demand, the Wilpons, Boras, etc.