Many expected Noah Syndergaard to make his MLB debut in 2014. But he didn’t have a particularly impressive season in Triple-A and the Mets opted not to give him a promotion. He started back in the minors at the beginning of 2015 but made his debut on May 12 after going 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA for Las Vegas. Syndergaard made 24 starts for the Mets, started games in each round of the playoffs and finished fourth in Rookie of the Year balloting. It’s hard to imagine his debut going much better.
Featuring an average fastball velocity of 97.1, the highest among all pitchers with at least 120 IP last year, Syndergaared posted a 9.96 K/9. Perhaps even more impressive was his 1.86 BB/9. The only blemish was an elevated HR rate, as he had a 14.3 HR/FB rate and a 1.14 HR/9. However, in 19 IP during the playoffs, Syndergaard did not allow a homer. So, what’s in store for him in 2016? Here are our individual projections:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | AVG FB V | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Barbieri | 215.1 | 2.13 | 242 | 59 | 16 | 2.67 | 96.2 |
| Scott Fergson | 180.0 | 3.20 | 210 | 55 | 19 | 3.09 | 96.4 |
| Charlie Hangley | 188.0 | 2.91 | 202 | 47 | 15 | 2.77 | 95.3 |
| Brian Joura | 213.0 | 2.81 | 215 | 44 | 18 | 2.83 | 96.2 |
| Mike Kohler | 165.0 | 3.15 | 181 | 46 | 18 | 3.19 | 97.0 |
| Matt Netter | 205.0 | 2.98 | 225 | 53 | 15 | 2.67 | 97.0 |
| James Newman | 210.0 | 2.85 | 225 | 45 | 20 | 2.87 | 96.8 |
| Doug Parker | 185.0 | 3.15 | 195 | 50 | 23 | 3.45 | 96.3 |
| Rob Rogan | 187.0 | 3.20 | 208 | 44 | 19 | 2.94 | 98.3 |
| Larry Smith | 181.0 | 3.27 | 185 | 26 | 20 | 2.96 | 95.9 |
| Chris Walendin | 215.0 | 2.95 | 234 | 47 | 20 | 2.82 | 97.1 |
Clearly, none of us have heard of the sophomore jinx. Mike Koehler has the most pessimistic forecast and he calls for 165 IP and a 3.15 ERA. Doug Parker calls for the same ERA but with 20 more IP while Larry Smith has the highest ERA at 3.27 but also cracking 180 IP. Joe Barbieri has images of the Cy Young Award dancing in his head, with a 2.13 ERA over 215.1 IP. Four others join Joe with a prediction of 200+ innings and a sub-3.00 ERA.
Here’s how we think he’ll do overall in 2016:
Every club in the league would be thrilled to have these numbers from their third starter. Well, time for the reality check. Let’s see how our forecast stacks up against the computer projections.
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel | 135.0 | 3.47 | 142 | 33 | 16 | 3.30 |
| Mets360 | 195.0 | 2.98 | 211 | 47 | 18 | 2.89 |
| Steamer | 176.0 | 3.14 | 194 | 46 | 17 | 2.97 |
| ZiPS | 172.0 | 3.09 | 194 | 43 | 17 | 2.91 |
Clearly the most optimistic of the group but not by an outrageous amount. Specifically, check out the FIP numbers. Ours is right in line with what both Steamer and ZiPS projects. We’re just expecting him to outpitch his peripherals and give a few more innings. Seems like expecting big things from Syndergaard this year is not unrealistic.
No one thinks he’ll succumb to TJ surgery this year, like every other Mets starter has? It’s probably not a question of if, but when.
BTW, you have a typo in the Strikeouts row for 2015.
The Braves Big Three were a Big Three because they never were touched by Injury.
It’s an important distiction because Steve Avery was young and massively Talented and he was almost a Big 4th, but he was derailed by an arm injury. …and “because Gen 2k…”.
This is all about Arm Health. 180-210 iinnings of Noah… 2.75 Era….3,35 Era…. 3.5 Era…I would take it….
Tell me these “big 4” are in/around/slightly over 760-790 innings…. an 800 inning combo would be an amazing Floor!
I’m a bit surprised that many people expect Thor to throw many more innings than last year, especially considering the postseason work. I figure closer to Kohler’s innings prediction, and as Alderson said, he needs to be sharp for possible postseason work.
Wonder how much bravado the Royals will have when facing Thor, knowing he challenged them openly in the media, but I doubt they will be interested in dealing with him. Only Moustakas and Hosmer probably have the guts to stand up to the big guy but I hope he gives them a good bowtie.