This time a year ago, Michael Conforto was one of the prospects who made the Mets’ system one of the best in the game. Few imagined that he would make his MLB debut in 2015 and virtually no one expected him to no longer maintain rookie status for 2016. Conforto had an outstanding rookie season and now he’s counted on to be a productive member of the starting lineup.
Conforto was used in a platoon last year and it’s an open question if he’ll be in the same situation again this year. A few months ago, the expectation was that he would be an everyday player. But with re-signing Yoenis Cespeds, it’s no longer a given that Conforto will face LHP on a regular basis in 2016. Terry Collins may opt to get Juan Lagares more playing time by having him sub for Conforto each time a lefty starts the game.
Here are our individual projections for Conforto:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | UZR/150 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Barbieri | 433 | .304 | .376 | .500 | 16 | 59 | 9.6 |
| Charlie Hangley | 592 | .283 | .342 | .491 | 27 | 94 | 18.5 |
| Brian Joura | 575 | .270 | .335 | .461 | 18 | 74 | 6.5 |
| Mike Koehler | 500 | .270 | .330 | .475 | 21 | 80 | 5.0 |
| Matt Netter | 520 | .282 | .340 | .470 | 24 | 81 | |
| James Newman | 550 | .285 | .350 | .520 | 18 | 70 | 16.0 |
| Jim O’Malley | 486 | .277 | .348 | .494 | 21 | 65 | 19.0 |
| Rob Rogan | 553 | .275 | .335 | .480 | 21 | 74 | 12.5 |
| Larry Smith | 500 | .264 | .330 | .460 | 18 | 76 | 8.0 |
| Chris Walendin | 535 | .269 | .327 | .455 | 17 | 66 | 3.5 |
The ones who project the least amount of playing time also have Conforto with the highest OPS, which makes sense, as they expect him to be platooned. The biggest surprise to me is Charlie expecting 27 HR, which would be a wonderful thing if it came to be. But it’s not a huge outlier, as Matt predicts him to post 24 homers. Perhaps the most unexpected thing last year with Conforto was his defense. He came in with a less than stellar defensive reputation but after some initial shaky moments, he looked fine out there and UZR loved his play. He had a 26.5 UZR/150, which is outstanding. Of course it was a small sample and we’ll be unlikely to see a repeat of that over a full season. Still, if Conforto finishes with a positive UZR, most of us will take that and be happy.
Here is our official forecast:
Last year Conforto had an .841 OPS and we are predicting an .810 mark. It certainly feels right to expect a drop in his fine numbers from a season ago in his first full campaign in the majors. But is it a big enough drop? Daniel Murphy posted .871 OPS in his rookie season and he turned around to notch a .741 mark in his first full year. Let’s look to the computer models and see what they say.
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel | 297 | .270 | .330 | .468 | 9 | 26 |
| Mets360 | 524 | .275 | .335 | .475 | 20 | 74 |
| Steamer | 527 | .260 | .321 | .435 | 18 | 65 |
| ZiPs | 610 | .255 | .320 | .466 | 26 | 87 |
Our projection is mostly in the same ballpark with the others. ZiPS sees a very big power season, almost matching Charlie with a forecast of 26 HR. Steamer is more bearish, with a SLG mark 40 points below ours and an OPS 54 points lower than the 360 crew. Ours is the most aggressive, but our OPS is only 12 points above Marcel and 24 points above ZiPS.
Michael Conforto had a 841 OPS, but take out the two game at Coors and it drops to 806.
Assuming he can maintain that pace against righties and let’s say a 600 OPS against lefties and a 6:1 ratio of RH to LH pitchers, we’d be looking at around ~780 OPS.
I still think that’s too high. Conforto had a 17% HR/FB ratio, which would be 28th and there with the big boys like Joey Bautista. If i drop him down to the 14-15% range, he would have hit 7.5 HRs and dropped his season OPS ~40 points.
So doing the 6:1 ratio, 770 OPS vs Righties and 600 OPS vs Lefties, i’d get my projection of ~745. Daniel Murphy 2.0!
A few points about Conforto that we need to remember:
– Hard to believe that his pop isn’t real because of the opposite field home runs. When guys are hitting them out the opposite way, they have pretty good power.
– He has been known to have an accurate and strong arm but isn’t known for his mobility. If he has to play right field and Lagares in centerfield is the 2014 outfielder we remember, Conforto’s range will not be as crucial. Also, he has a better arm than Granderson who for some reason can’t even throw over the top.
– Too, Conforto has shown to be aggressively patient. Meaning, he will take what isn’t his pitch and rip what is. He has been fooled by pitches, but doesn’t usually chase. This shows good discipline which is important in batting average. If Keith Hernandez says you’re a #3 hitter, I’m not arguing.
– Lastly, while Conforto will look to pull, he doesn’t have a pronounced uppercut for the homers but rather a line drive swing. Unlike Murphy, Conforto will look to pull and he will not give away an atbat to swing at the first pitch and hit a shallow flyball to left center. That alone should make him a better young hitter than Murphy was.
I agree with Name as to the 6:1 ratio, but since he will probably hit 7th, I cannot expect 500 plate appearances. My forecast for Conforto is .282/.363/.460 with 22 HR and 75 RBI, but only 50 runs scored.
I just thought he was primed for a big year. I think he’s the genuine article.
I think he’s a hitter.
And the math gymnastics don’t do anything for me. There’s not enough of a history to give it much meaning.
We don’t know.
I do think a big factor will be where TC bats him in the order. He’s diminished & wasted in the 7-spot.
Conforto, 22 yoa, 325/506/841, 194 PA, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 132 OPS+
Wright, 21yoa, 332/525/857, 283, 14 HR, 40 RBI, 119 OPS+
Conforto is the real deal, a #3 hitter, and I am bullish on him and very excited about him.