Bartolo Colon won six of his first seven decisions and we had visions of 2013 dancing in our head. Unfortunately, things didn’t remain this rosy the rest of the year. Of course, six of those first seven games were against NL East clubs and the seventh was a home game against an Orioles squad that had Jimmy Paredes, Delmon Young, Caleb Joseph, Travis Snider and Everth Cabrera in their starting lineup.
Baseball-Reference includes Bill James’ Game Score calculations for each start. The higher the Game Score number, the better pitched game it was. The metric is scaled so 50 is an average start. Colon had 13 of his 31 starts as below average by this metric. Of his 18 starts that were average or better, 13 of them came against the NL East.
His last three starts of the season came against NL East squads. In those games he allowed 9 ER in 17 IP for a 4.76 ERA. What happens if he stops dominating the weak sisters of the league? Here are our individual forecasts for Colon in 2016:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | Hits | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Barbieri | 126.0 | 4.29 | 91 | 19 | 16 | 3.79 | 4.0 |
| Charlie Hangley | 142.0 | 3.82 | 126 | 47 | 11 | 3.36 | 6.0 |
| Brian Joura | 95.0 | 4.28 | 67 | 18 | 14 | 4.21 | 5.0 |
| Mike Kohler | 145.0 | 4.10 | 85 | 18 | 19 | 4.04 | 3.0 |
| Matt Netter | 148.0 | 4.30 | 115 | 20 | 20 | 3.74 | 6.0 |
| James Newman | 160.0 | 4.20 | 115 | 30 | 15 | 3.48 | 6.0 |
| Jim O’Malley | 145.0 | 4.15 | 95 | 22 | 17 | 3.80 | 5.0 |
| Rob Rogan | 154.0 | 4.25 | 110 | 25 | 21 | 3.97 | 3.0 |
| Larry Smith | 135.0 | 3.99 | 100 | 21 | 14 | 3.47 | 3.0 |
| Chris Walendin | 120.0 | 4.40 | 77 | 18 | 20 | 4.47 | 2.0 |
The preseason plan is for Colon to spend the first half of the season in the rotation and then move to the bullpen once Zack Wheeler returns. So, the innings pitched forecasts become more interesting than usual. Colon would seem to have a leg up to remain in the rotation if one of the other four starters got hurt. He also turns 43 in May. It seems strange that most of us are projecting him to finish with an innings total that would make him a low-end SP#3 or a high-end SP#4. And to make things even stranger, eight of the 10 people here expect him to have an ERA in the 4’s. Will the Mets really allow him to make 25 starts with an ERA that high?
Here is our official Colon projection for 2016:
Of course, pitching is only part of the Colon experience. His at-bats have become much anticipated events. Last year, he had eight hits, which is a pretty remarkable total given his age, lack of hitting experience and times he just gives away at-bats as he goes up to the plate determined not to expend any energy. We think he’ll fall short of his 2015 hit total. Let’s hope those four all provide big belly laughs.
Back to his pitching. Is our forecast especially optimistic? Here’s what the big boys think:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel | 176.0 | 4.09 | 125 | 32 | 21 | 3.81 |
| Mets360 | 137.0 | 4.20 | 98 | 24 | 17 | 3.84 |
| Steamer | 148.0 | 3.85 | 98 | 21 | 18 | 3.82 |
| ZiPS | 157.2 | 4.11 | 116 | 29 | 19 | 3.78 |
In what might be a first, we have the least optimistic forecast out there! We predict the fewest innings and the highest ERA. The innings make sense, as we have the knowledge that he’s likely headed for the bullpen, while the computer models don’t know that. Interestingly, all four systems see Colon with a FIP within 0.06 points of one another. Steamer thinks he’ll essentially match his FIP while the rest of us think he’ll pitch worse than his peripherals.
I am surprised by the generally optimistic take on his innings, too.
The feeling seems to be that it will all go as planned. But I definitely could see the plug getting pulled after 10-12 starts. We shall see.
Reminds me of that old Mother Goose rhyme: When he is good, he is very, very good. But when he is bad, he is horrid.
This is one of 3-4 signings from this winter that could go very wrong this year. I’d also list De Aza and Cabrera in that category. Fingers crossed.
I didn’t agree with many of the moves made by Alderson this offseason but one of my main complaints was that they were squandering money when in-house options were available.
Now, if Colon or Bastardo or Reed or Cabrera flop, they can plug someone else in. And the $25+ million spent on those guys didn’t prevent them from re-signing Cespedes.
It’s still not optimal and not what I would have done.
Odds are that at least one of those four is going to be a failure. But I don’t spend much time worrying about it. An injury to one of the main 4 SP is my biggest concern.