The Mets’ rotation dominates with efficient, quality heat

Spring Training games have finally begun, and we’ve (almost) officially moved on from news stories focused on championship hogs and which car/truck/animal Yoenis Cespedes will ride to Tradition Field. We’ve transitioned to actual games of baseball, albeit exhibitions, but real games nonetheless. While we don’t yet have any meaningful data to analyze, we can certainly discuss expectations. Specifically, there are very high expectations for the starting rotation of the National League champions. It is, of course, the team’s strongest asset and generally the linchpin argument that pundits default to when justifying their Mets predictions for the upcoming season.

Last week we discussed the spin rate on Matt Harvey‘s slider, an important component in assessing its effectiveness. We also discussed Steven Matz‘s changeup and how surprisingly good it was in 2015. It’s not Harvey’s slider, or Matz’s changeup, or Noah Syndergaard‘s curveball that defines this rotation’s dominance, though. It’s the heat. More specifically, it’s the quality of that heat. You knew that already, of course, but did you know just how good the rotation’s fastballs were last year? Let’s explore.

The value rating of their fastballs comes from FanGraphs’ Pitch Type Liner Weights (PTLW), or pitch values. FanGraphs determines these values based on the run expectancy of each pitch (and separates each pitch type), which in turn takes into account each count the pitch is thrown in and the end result of that pitch (ball, strike, single, etc.). These stats are presented as “Weighted X Runs” (wX) where X is the pitch type and the value is the number of runs above average that pitch was worth (with zero being average). Total runs and standardized runs by pitch are the two forms of this metric supplied, but more on that a little later. Keep in mind that the value for a pitcher indicates his effective use of that pitch against a batter while the value for a batter is his effectiveness against that pitch type. The higher the number the better for both pitchers and batters.

So, with all of that out of the way, let’s take a look at the value of the rotation’s fastball in total runs (wFB) last season. As a whole, the wFB of the Mets’ rotation in 2015 was 56.6. Just how good is that? Consider two things here. First, the Cardinals rotation was the second highest with a not particularly close 37.8 wFB. Second, they had three of the top 16 in wFB: Jacob deGrom at 9th (18.5), Harvey at 11th (16.2), and Syndergaard at 16th (12.9). That’s impressive.

We can also view this through the lens of wFB/C, which is a standardized version of the PTLW numbers to account for the differing frequencies in which pitchers tend to throw each pitch type. In this case, it’s per 100 pitches. The Mets’ rotation still comes in first with a wFB/C of 0.60. The Cardinals come in at number two again with a 0.39 wFB/C. DeGrom, Harvey, and Syndergaard all placed in the same positions as well. Note that this included only pitchers with 150 or more innings in 2015.

The numbers from last year clearly show that the quality of the rotation’s fastballs matched up with the sparkling numbers they put up on the radar guns. What’s important to keep in mind, however, is that these pitches don’t exist in a vacuum. That is to say, other factors come into play during any given at bat and in any count. One of the most important factors to consider when valuing a pitch is how much it has potentially benefited from the other pitches in that pitcher’s repertoire.

A pitcher with multiple quality pitches can use each to play off of each other, thereby increasing the value of each. This is something we inherently know from simply watching the game. We frequently watch a pitcher set up a batter by keeping him on his toes with a scorching fastball, only to change speeds and make him flail out in front of a quality changeup. We should apply that same thinking when considering the values for each individual pitch type.

DeGrom, for example, matched his high-quality fastball with a changeup that ranked as the 3rd best in the league with a wCH/C of 2.49. Syndergaard’s curveball clocked in at 16th with a wCB/C of 0.78. Harvey’s slider, which lacked the spin it had in 2013, came in at 7th with a w/SL/C of 1.95.

On a somewhat unrelated but similarly impressive note, the Mets rotation pitched the second most total innings last season while throwing just the 14th highest number of total pitches. They were effective as well as efficient, a potent combination.

It’s important to keep in mind that the PTLW numbers are strictly descriptive statistics. They simply state what happened and are not predictive of future performance. Still, these numbers reaffirm what was apparent throughout the year. The Mets’ rotation isn’t made up of simple flamethrowers. These are pitchers that leverage high-quality secondaries to play up their elite fastballs to an incredibly effective degree. The best part is that, although the numbers aren’t predictive, these guys could be even better in 2016.