Earlier this morning, uber commenter James Preller reminded us of the fragility of David Wright with the following note:
I am highly suspicious of the fact that David Wright has not yet run the bases. I understand the official reasons, and there’s some logic to the idea that they are “not rushing it,” but still. I wonder if he’s in worse shape than they had hoped. After all, the WS ended in early November. Spring Training does have meaning, after all. Going slow is one thing, but he is not playing at all. I find it all ominous.
I don’t believe the Mets will tell us the truth on this topic, nor do I particularly blame them. A trade would indicate something, certainly. OTOH, they may be thinking that Flores is the guy at 3B. Or the guy who gets the first shot. I’ve puzzled over the $3 million deal for Tejada, except for the fact that if David can’t play, then keeping Tejada around makes some sense.
The other move could be, down the road, Walker to 3B and Herrera up, but that feels mid-season (if at all). Cabrera shifting to 3B also seems possible.
Anyway, my basic point: I don’t believe what they are telling us about Wright. Lying about injuries is a time-honored practice. I believe what I am seeing. The guy can’t get on the field. He’s been in FLA since January and he’s still trying to touch his toes. I have had a very dark take on his health since we first heard news of this injury. I feel he’s greatly diminished. My guess has been that he’ll play under 100 games at average-fair-poor quality. And now, watching from afar, I wonder if I’ve been too optimistic.
Oh, and to connect with the defense theme: DW’s defense is horribly diminished too. With Flores there, it could get scary. I think defense matters, a lot. Though I think the Mets are good enough to overcome it . . . to a degree. It’s a clear weakness, IMO. I can’t put lipstick on it.
One person that he didn’t mention was Eric Campbell. Now, virtually no one is on the Campbell bandwagon and after a season where he had a .197/.312/.295 slash line in 206 PA, it’s easy to understand why. But Campbell has more recent 3B experience than just about anyone, even if it’s nearly as painful to watch him throw as it is Wright.
But the real reason not to dismiss Campbell is that he was pretty unlucky last year.
Campbell posted a .348 BABIP in 2014 and followed that up with a .230 mark last year. And this happened despite a leap in his LD% from 17.4% in ’14 to 26.1% last year. Since line drives are the batted balls most likely to result in hits — somewhere around 70% on average — to have such an increase in LD% and such a decrease in BABIP is almost hard to fathom.
However, it should be pointed out that not all line drives are created equal. But Campbell doesn’t have any issues with hitting the ball hard. FanGraphs breaks down batted balls into balls hit Soft, Medium and Hard, taking batted ball type into consideration. A Line Drive hit at 90 mph is hard hit while a Fly Ball at 90 mph is medium. Among Mets in 2015 with at least 100 PA, Campbell had the third-lowest Soft%.
Another indication that he does a good job of squaring up the ball is that Campbell had the second-lowest IFFB% on the club among the 18 hitters who amassed 100 or more PA last year. And another factor in his favor is that he cut down on his strikeouts from his debut, going from a 26.1 K% to an 18.8 rate in 2015.
None of this is meant as a ringing endorsement for Campbell to be the primary 3B backup. It’s just a reminder that he’s in the running and there are reasons to believe that last year contained quite a bit of poor luck. The Mets did not bring in a true 3B backup and at least twice Campbell kept his position on the 40-man roster when the Mets had to make a move after the Rule 5 deadline.
Ive mentioned Cambpell almost every time Wrights possible curtailed playing time is raised. My comments have been shrugged off because Flores is the “guy”. I am certain he isnt. If you think he has issues at short, what you get at 3B will terrify you. Campbell is the best option by some distance over Flores, Walker, Tejada, or Cabrera…and as I have said repeatedly, if Campbell is getting 400+ ABs this year, this team is in deep trouble.
Third is easier to play than third. If Flores can hit, say 260/15/70, he’s he guy if Wright can’t go. Is Wright still insured? Flores s a good guy and deserves the shot.,
Flores has a slow first step, but worse, he cant throw. He routinely bounces the ball from SS and is wild. The throw from third is far more complicated because it involves a longer distance, it involves throws while charging, and a lot of the throws happen while off balance, which leads to being wild. He needs so much time to glove set and throw that many balls will be infield hits just becuase he cannot make the time, or errors.
Wright’s arm is similarly a fraction of what it was. But hes such a pro and so accomplished that he can compensate in many ways. For Flores, every ball will be a challenge.
“Good guy and deserves a shot” doesnt sound like a post season strategy.
I see it didnt take long.
Adam Rubin tweet: E-5 on would-be double play turn. Runners on corners, one out.
Also saw it was a throwing error…who could predict? Oh yeah, and it cost a run.
I wouldn’t read too much into Wright’s early ST participation. they’re easing him back in. Assuming he’s ready to go at the start, I’d be very careful about using him in those cold April night games.
My point is that yes, that’s the official word. They are easing him in.
I suspect it’s deeper than that.
Campbell is a useful 25th guy. It ends there.
I’ve always been more worried that David will play often and poorly. As opposed to being out for an extended period. That he’ll be in the 2-hole long after its obvious he can’t perform. The spot in front of Cespedes is a prime slot in the order. It should go to Conforto, IMO.
I like Yoenis in cleanup, though TC has talked about him batting 3rd.
Question: Would the Mets be better off if David Wright disappeared, just vanished like on “The Leftovers?” Poof.
He struck out 20x in the postseason. 54 ABs. The most important baseball of his life. I feel very, very sorry for him. And I expect this to end badly.
Great player.
But the general thinking is that the bench will be: Flores, Tejada, Lagares, De Aza and Backup Catcher. Do the Mets take Campbell in place of one of these guys or do they start with only 11 pitchers? Or does Campbell only make the majors when Wright goes on the DL?
I don’t think they’d be better if he disappeared. I don’t know how healthy Wright will be, but I don’t think it’s fair to judge him off the postseason. His postseason was better than Cespedes’ and d’arnaud’s one of whom they just decided to give one of the highest yearly salaries ever to and the other is one of the few young hitters they plan to build around.
Wright was pretty good when he first came back. He just might have hit a wall after being out for so long (in addition to facing great pitching). A similar thing happened when he returned from injury in 2011. He was good initially but then really fell off the last 20 games or so.
Of course that also brings into question whether he will be able to maintain any level of productivity over an extended period of time. His back isn’t going to get better. And all the extra work he needs to do is likely quite tiring.
“Stop Wasting Your Breath James”
In all seriousness, I’m intrigued by this situation and your opinion. At first glance this seems like a harmless attempt to preserve a staple in our lineup.
The more I think about it the more James may be right. What’s another week do for Wright? Why not simulate the situation he’s going to be in all season? 2-4 games on 1 game off. Seems fishy.
I guess we’ll have a better idea in a week or two.
Also Brian you are one of the few people that can talk me into three possibility of Eric Campbell as a viable backup. We’ll done haha
As a hitter, I don’t mind Campbell as a backup. I’m less sold on him as a fielder. Which makes him perfect for these Mets, I suppose.
There is little reason for Optimism about Wright. I think you’ve slammed the Nail Here– Less Games and a Less productive Player when he does play.
They have a deep and flexible stock of Infielders—they did that on purpose and in response to the situation. Yes… Wilmer may be a lesser Version of the David Wright we Knew—This version of David Wright is at least as diminished as anyone who would now replace him.
It is a bit of a concern. The rest and going slow part makes sense but the timeline does make me wonder if there was some setback along the way. Even with the month of rest, he still would’ve had 3 months to prepare. But if he was feeling that bad now he probably wouldn’t be swinging a bat and taking ground balls
There certainly is zero likelihood that the Mets are exaggerating David’s health issues; they are at least every bit as bad as advertised. Also, his throwing alone last year was plenty of cause to give anyone pause. So yes, I and all Mets fans have more than enough to concern us here. But there are some common sense limits, like: does it really serve the Mets best interests to perpetuate an illusion? I don’t see it; I doubt they are propping up a player who really can’t answer the bell at all.
My own read of David’s absence from the games so far follows my own approach to life as I have aged. It happens that I have some knowledge of various building skills, and a many of the requisite tools. This results in neighbors calling on me for various tasks. And always, when I find myself doing that sort of thing I have to remember: ration the number of times you have to pick up something off the ground. There only get so many times in a days you can do it, make sure you can still do it at the end of the project.
I think David’s and the Mets’ modus operandi follows that thinking. In other words, it’s not a great situation, more of a controlled slide, but hardly the end of times.
Good comment. Two things:
1) the Mets, and many other teams, have a longstanding tradition of downplaying injuries, to the point where I think it’s foolish to take any of their comments at face value; and
2) Last year at this time TC lectured on and on about the importance of getting 55-65 ABs in Spring Training in order to be truly ready for the season. It was a point of emphasis for him.
My guess is that David is in worse shape than they had hoped. Just speculation. Could be wrong, and hope I am.
It’s a nuance issue. In one reading, the Mets are managing the situation, and in control; in the other reading, they are trying to make the best of a worsening condition. One is proactive; the other is reactive (though the pretense is that it’s part of the master plan).
I understand James concerns especially with Wright’s starting date being pushed back. I hope it is only for precautionary reasons.
Walker should be getting reps at third base. Hererra had a strong 2015 AAA season and should be given the nod at second if Wright can’t play. Flores in his two years has had the opportunity and has shown to be a slightly below average offensive player. Herrera is a better player than Flores. Flores and Walker could form a platoon but at Walker’s $10m that doesn’t appear likely. I don’t think this is the Mets current thinking and instead will use Flores at third if Wright can’t play while keeping Walker at second. At least there is enough depth for various options but I just don’t forsee Campbell as one of them.