In 2015 from the beginning of the year until the end of July, the Mets hit 89 homers in 103 games and had a 53-50 mark. After the acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets hit 88 homers in 59 games and went 37-22. Obviously there was more to the Mets’ hot streak at the end of the year than simply more balls going over the wall. But it would be silly to ignore the importance of the long ball to the Mets’ offense.
Those 177 home runs placed the Mets third in the National League in round trippers. It was also tied for the sixth-best mark in team history. Before August, the Mets averaged less than a homer per game, a mark that would have seen them finish with 140 over 162 games. That pace would have resulted in the 18th-most homers in franchise history. In the final two months, the Mets averaged just under 1.5 homers per game. If they kept up that pace over a full season, it would have resulted in 242 homers, which would have easily established a new franchise high. The NL record for most homers in a single season was set by the Astros in 2000, when they hit 249.
With the Mets re-signing Cespedes, adding two offensive-first middle infielders during the offseason and having Michael Conforto for a full year, the expectation was for the club to once again be a better-than-average power team. But so far in Spring Training, the homers have been few and far between. In fact, the Mets are next to last in the majors with 9 HR in 16 games.
Okay everyone, all together now, Spring Training stats are meaningless. On top of that, no team has played fewer than the Mets’ total of 16. The Royals have played 22. But in those 22 games, the Royals have hit 27 homers, an average of 1.2 per game. Meanwhile, the Mets have an average half of that, with a 0.6 mark.
Additionally, you’re giving a lot of playing time to guys fighting for the last few roster spots, ones not likely to be hitting the long ball. While that may be true, the guys expected to hit homers for the Mets simply aren’t doing that so far. Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda and Cespedes were the team’s top HR hitters last year. That trio has combined for 1 HR in 63 ABs.
Still, the Mets figure to be a team that amasses strong HR totals not on the back of one or two guys battling for 50 homers but rather having an entire lineup at or near 20 home runs. And while the top guys aren’t setting the world on fire this spring, neither are the rest of the guys who all have some pop in their bat. Asdrubal Cabrera, Conforto, Travis d’Arnaud and Neil Walker have 2 HR in 87 ABs.
So, how worrisome is this? Right now, it’s pretty low on the list of things to be upset about. The Mets could play back-to-back games in parks where the wind was blowing out and move up significantly in the team homer ranks.
If that’s the case – why write this up at all? Because fans have taken certain things for granted, things that we expect to be strengths that will more than compensate for weaknesses in other areas. Who cares if the Mets are a poor defensive team with a bench construction that makes little sense and a shaky bridge to the closer? The starting pitching is going to be outstanding and the lineup is deep with power from every non-pitcher spot in the lineup.
Those two strengths can cover up a multitude of weaknesses. But if the power is not what we expected, than that can highlight the other areas of the offense that are less than ideal. If you finish third in the league in homers, like the 2015 Mets, no one cares that you’re 11th in OBP and 15th in SB. This is not a team that is going to manufacture runs on a consistent basis.
Just to be crystal clear, this is not a plea for any type of emphasis on small ball strategies and productive outs. Yes, it would be nice if the Mets’ pitchers did a better job of executing sacrifice bunts. But hopefully you’re aware that basing an offense on productive outs was debunked over a decade ago. So, the other hitters in the lineup should be working counts and swinging away – looking for a pitch to drive for extra bases.
And so far this Spring, it’s not a case of power without homers, as the Mets rank 27th in SLG with a .389 mark.
Right now, we speak confidently about Spring Training stats being meaningless. But we hope that when the seasons starts in earnest that the Mets are able to flip the switch and start producing hits for extra bases, specifically homers. And if they want to start doing it now during the final stages of Spring Training, that would be okay, too.
While I’ll admit I don’t understand the math in play (would have been great if he broke it down), but I don’t believe small ball doesn’t work. We’ve seen teams use it and win. I’d rather have a team get on base, steal, sacrifice and scrap together wins like the Royals did rather than sit on a home run that never comes.
You are right though, ST doesn’t mean anything.
Even with the ridiculously small sample size of a best-of-7 series, in the last 10 years, the team with the higher OPS won the World Series nine times. The Royals didn’t win because of the superiority of their offensive tactics — they won because they faced a team that hit even worse than they did. If the Mets held a 73-point OPS advantage, the odds would have been overwhelmingly in their favor to win the series.
In 2009 the Wilpons opened up a beautiful stadium but unfortunately an idiot designed the outfield dimensions and walls. Rumor has it that Jeff Wilpon was the architect of this aberration. It is a welcomed relief that the dimensions we’re changed over the years and that the field now plays fair. It is also exciting to think that the Mets may lead the league in home runs. Small ball or boom ball makes no difference as long as they win. Let’s Go Mets !!!
Chicks dig the long ball!
The Mets are built to beat you with Arms and Power…. The Defense is Survivalist…the speed and “situational/small ball” are their lesser attributes.
Play Ball!
the problem comes when the droughts happen. boom or bust.i dont think any rational Mets fan believes the Ces we saw in Aug/Sept is who we will see for 6 months. he set career levels and its unreasonable to extpect the same going forward.
On the positive side, it’s nice that every one of the starting 8 is capable of hitting at least 15 homers. This team should top 200 homers in 2016. If you get an average of 15 out of d’Arnaud, Walker, Cabrera, Wright and Flores, 50 combined from Grandy and Conforto, 60 combined from Duda and Cespedes, and another 20 -25 from the bench… Defense and speed aside, a team with a dominant pitching staff that hits 200+ homers is playoff bound. Faith in Sandy.
As I recall the Mets had one of their better spring trainings last year and then had that 11 game winning streak near the beginning of the season. That streak was as much a reason that they won the pennant as anything as it set the tone for the competition and gave them the cushion until Sandy brought in the calvery at the end of July. Of course we expect the boys to crash more HRs in ST but I can live with it if they hit the road running once the bell rings in KC in a few weeks. The problem this year is for the first time since 2006 we actually expect the mets to win it all. Nothing less will be a disappointing season. #yagottabelieve #letsgomets.
Right about now is when the “it’s still only spring training” mantra starts to lose a little bit of it’s comforting aspect. The last 2 weeks of ST are usually when the starting pitchers’ arms get stretched out and the regulars are starting more often and staying in the games longer — when teams make themselves look more or less like they hope to on Opening Day.
So if the power is going to show up, it should start showing up soon.
Do you remember how well the Mets did in the last 2 weeks of Spring Training 2015? Whether it’s day 1 of Spring Training or day 31, none of matters (except for health), at all.