When we last saw the Mets in 2015, they didn’t hit well, they didn’t pitch well and they didn’t field well. That’s a tough trio of things to overcome and unsurprisingly, they lost four of their final five games. Flash forward to 2016 and the fielding has been sort of okay, the hitting has been dismal but the pitching has been great. The end result is a 2-2 record, with the two losses being of the one-run variety.
The sample sizes of any one individual are tiny but we can at least get something to look at if we look at team totals, instead. Let’s focus on the positive – the pitching. The Mets lead the National League with a 1.29 ERA and they’re third in WHIP, with a 0.886 mark. They also lead the pack with the fewest homers allowed (1), although that’s a little misleading since 10 teams in the league have played more games than they have.
The team line is 35 IP, 5 ER, 3 BB and 36 Ks, which is remarkable.
Sure, half of these numbers were amassed against the Phillies, who are contenders for the worst team in baseball. But the other half were put up on the road against the defending World Champions. So, let’s call it a wash. Against a middle of the road schedule, Mets pitching has been dominating even more than we would have expected.
Perhaps what’s surprising about this pitching performance is that the bullpen has been every bit as good, if not better, than the starters. Who among you had the relievers opening the year with 11.1 innings and allowing just one unearned run? How many expected the pen to have 12 Ks and zero walks in this span? Certainly not me.
The early workload has been spread pretty evenly, with no reliever pitching in more than two games and six of the seven guys in the pen having made an appearance. The odd man out right now is Logan Verrett, who once he gets into a game will feel the “pressure” to keep up with his mates and keep the good times rolling.
It’s one thing for a unit from whom not much is expected to over-perform. It’s another thing to have a group from which much is anticipated to either meet or exceed those expectations. And that’s what the starters have done so far. Sure, we probably expected the starters to have a great K/IP ratio but were we expecting a 9.1 rate when Matt Harvey didn’t dominate and Bartolo Colon made one of the four starts? And what were the odds that the starters would have a sub-2.00 ERA and an 8.0 K/BB ratio?
If Vegas had a line on this, it wouldn’t have been a killing for those who wagered but they still would have made some nice money.
Later this afternoon, Harvey will have a chance to add to these impressive totals. Lifetime against the Phillies, he’s 6-1 with a 2.44 ERA, with 59 Ks in 51.2 IP and a 0.871 WHIP. In the past, Rollins and Utley gave Harvey problems but they’re both elsewhere now. Ryan Howard has just three hits in 20 PA against him.
Harvey is the only pitcher on the staff with an ERA above two, as he carries a 4.76 mark, having allowed 3 ER in 5.2 IP. It’s not that he pitched poorly against Kansas City. But without registering the strikeouts we expected, Harvey left himself in a position to be “Royaled,” where the team had an advantageous sequencing of less-than-booming hits. Hey, it happens. Regardless, if he turns in a typical outing for him against the Phillies, that ERA should be approaching 3.00, which certainly will feel more Harvey-esque.
Of course, it would be nice if the team scored some runs for Harvey. New York waited until Harvey left the game to push across any runs in his first outing. The Mets’ 3.00 runs-per-game mark ranks 13th in the NL, ahead of just the Phillies and Braves. But surely Yoenis Cespedes’ 38.9 K% and the BABIPs of Travis d’Arnaud (.111) and Curtis Granderson (.100) can’t continue, right?
Bartolo working various fastballs between 87 and 92 is very encouraging…it points to continued production for him, even if in a variety of roles.
Time for the bats to settle in…every ab yesterday was a HR Hero swing.
Harvey, as Rubin points out today, is on a streak of bad starts. He really needs an excellent outing today to break the chain, as well as run support from this offense that is presently on life support. Yes its early, but watching first pitch strikes, failing to opportunize on RISP, and endless Ks are themes we have seen plenty of from this team, so im not convinced its “the weather,” which sounds like an excuse.
After two starts, Harvey has a 1.80 ERA in the first five innings of the game and a 21.61 ERA in the sixth inning. Hopefully it’s just a coincidence.