After what he deemed a successful bullpen session before his start on Friday night, Matt Harvey told manager Terry Collins that he was “back.” After his start on Friday, that was clearly not the case. The final line doesn’t look too awful, but it was certainly less than Harvey-like and not what we’ve come to expect. He labored through five innings against a Braves offense that is dead last in the majors in wRC+, and he needed 101 pitches to do it. He was very likely one Yoenis Cespedes assist away from not even qualifying for the win he got in this one.
There were several issues with Harvey last night, including his inability to hit his spots or get his slider working. It’s hard to pinpoint just what the heck is going on, though, as there seem to be several things of interest both in his approach and his outcomes while also considering that we’re talking about four games worth of data. Speaking of data, the numbers throughout this article were pulled from a mixture of FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball, and Texas Leaguers.
That slider in particular seemed to be something he was determined to get going, though he wasn’t having much success with it. There was some talk in the off-season, including here at Mets360, about the spin rate of Harvey’s slider and how it was down in 2015 when compared to the devastating slider he had in 2013.
Collins mentioned during Spring Training that the spin was back on Harvey’s slider. In the early going this season, that does appear to be the case. In fact, the average spin rate on his slider in 2016 across four games (934 rpm) is higher than it was in 2013 (854 rpm). Last night the spin rate wasn’t quite there, sitting at 707 rpm. That certainly may have contributed to his troubles last night, as again it was clear he was trying to get it going.
The act of merely trying to get his slider going could be part of what has ailed him so far this season. On average, he’s been throwing it more often (18.1%) than he did in 2015 (15.6%). Indeed, it’s more in line with how often he was throwing it in 2013 (18.9%). Additionally, the vertical and horizontal movement on it are a tad higher than both 2013 and 2015.
Even though he’s got the spin rate back up and the movement on the slider, the results are certainly not on par with 2013. While he’s throwing it for strikes more often than in 2013, hitters are putting it in play more frequently (17.3% vs 21.2%) and are clobbering it to the tune of a .500 batting average against.
While looking over the numbers for his slider, however, something interesting jumped out. He’s been using his change-up much more frequently in 2016 (15.1%) than he had in either 2013 (8.4%) or 2015 (8.5%). Hitters are putting his change-up in play a whopping 30.9% of the time. We saw the same thing in the game last night, where he threw it 17% of the time and hitters put it in play 35.3% of the time. Is this a conscious effort to throw the change more often, or simply a result of small sample sizes?
While the line drive rate against him is higher (27.8%) than his career rate (20%), the amount of soft contact against him this season (30.7%) is higher than his career (19.3%) as well. That, in addition to his higher-than-normal BABIP of .351 could mean he’s been a bit unlucky. Still, the fact that he’s walking more, striking out less, invoking less swinging strikes, and hitters have a higher contact rate against him suggest that luck would only be a part of his issues.
Below you’ll see two zone profiles for Harvey. The first is his career through 2015 and the second is for the 2016 season so far. You’ll notice some interesting differences.
You’ll notice that in the past he’s been able to get his pitches low and in the zone very effectively. This season, particularly down and in against left-handed hitters, he hasn’t been able to live down there quite as effectively. In fact, he’s not been living quite as effectively on the left-hand side of the plate as a whole this season and instead has trended toward the right-hand side, down and outside specifically. In short, he doesn’t appear to be using all sides of the plate as well as we’re used to seeing. As the images above hint at and the eye test reaffirmed last night with the adjusting Travis d’Arnaud had to do behind the plate, Harvey just isn’t hitting his spots.
Is the issue mechanical? Is it simply lack of execution? Is it luck? Is it the fact that his velocity is down across all pitch types this season? It’s most likely a combination of all of these factors and more, including the light Spring Training he had, that are working in concert to derail his season a bit to this point. It’s not time to panic yet, and he hasn’t been truly awful, but he and Dan Warthen will need to spend extra time together to pick out just what the heck is going on here. The offense picked him up last night, but it’s an offense that’s shaping up to be feast or famine on the home run ball that will need to be picked up for stretches by Harvey and the rest of the pitching staff.
It was not a great game for Harvey but it was absolutely a step in the right direction.
It was nice to see his velocity back. He seemed to get ahead of most batters but couldn’t put them away, likely a byproduct of not having a good breaking ball. His command was not sharp.
I think looking at his pitches by inning is instructive:
13-31-13-15-26
His pitch count in the first, third and fourth innings is right where you want to see it. The second inning was the umpire delay and the fifth inning he got squeezed and allowed a leadoff walk that should have been a strikeout. It’s a 1-2-3 inning if he gets the call he should have.
You’ve got to fight through adversity and Harvey didn’t do a particularly good job of that.
I know it’s the Braves and nothing to get excited about but overall, I feel better about Harvey now than I did this time yesterday.
His first start of the year: bite on his slider….hop on his fastball…. lacking command and stamina….
… he now looks “tired armed”. …and there’s talk of some mechanical confusion as well.
As with all of these guys, I worry 99% about Health— pitchers do slump—I hope this is a slump
I was screaming at the tv last night. Harvey’s mechanical flaw is so obvious. He’s “landing short,” not striding as far as he should. His front foot is landing about a foot short of where it should so he’s not following all the way through and he’s too upright when he releases the ball. Hence all those belt high pitches. I coach 10 year olds and I point this out all the time. Warthen would have walked out to the mound but Ricky Bones stayed in the dugout with his thumb up his ass. Watch the way deGrom and Syndergaard stride toward the plate as a point of comparison.
Interesting observations especially about the Mets coaches. Maybe Harvey has a leg issue so he isn’t striding correctly. Seaver had some “down” years too. He didn’t win 20 games every year.