The big news for the Mets during the Winter Meetings was the acquisition of a new double play combo. They traded for Neil Walker, which was generally praised as a strong move. And they signed free agent Asdrubal Cabrera, which was met with a more mixed reaction. Three weeks into the season, most fans are thrilled with the production these two infielders have given the club.
Walker was not Plan A for the Mets, who made no secret that they wanted Ben Zobrist to come in and play 2B, even if Zobrist wanted a multi-year deal starting with his age 35 season. He may not have even been Plan B, depending how you feel about the club offering arbitration to incumbent second baseman, Daniel Murphy. But after those two decided what the Mets offered wasn’t enough, the club shipped Jon Niese to Pittsburgh, in a trade where each team dealt from depth to address a need.
Much like Murphy, Walker was an offensive-first player. But his defense, while below-average, seemed likely to be a step up from what the Mets had seen recently. And while Murphy had an incredible six-week run late last year, throughout their careers Walker was a superior offensive player, too. The main question seemed to be how to handle Walker’s platoon issues. He had a career OPS coming into 2016 145 points higher when batting as a lefty.
In last night’s game, the Braves removed a lefty reliever specifically so Walker would have to turn around and bat lefty. Who saw that coming? And no one could blame them, as Walker came into the game 7-11 with 3 HR batting righty. During Spring Training, batting coach Kevin Long had Walker remove a toe tap he had while hitting righty. The early returns have been phenomenal, making those of us who thought he should sit against LHP look silly.
Throughout his career, Walker has had much better results when he hits fly balls. Typically, batters produce a better AVG with grounders than they do with flies. So far this year, Walker has a .292 AVG when he hits a fly ball, compared to a .214 mark when he hits a grounder. Of course, your slugging percentage is going to better with fly balls and Walker has a 1.042 SLG when he hits one of those.
About the only thing Walker hasn’t done well offensively this year is in drawing walks. It wasn’t until Saturday night, in his 16th game of the year, that Walker drew his first base on balls. As well as Walker has hit this year, he has only a .299 OBP due to 1 BB in 67 PA. He’s allowed to do that, so long as his SLG checks in at a .606 clip.
Meanwhile, Cabrera came to the Mets after a bounce-back season last year with the Rays, where he upped his OPS 50 points from 2014 thanks to a post All-Star break surge. In the second half last year, Cabrera put up a .328/.372/.544 line, thanks in no small part to a .348 BABIP. In the two previous seasons, Cabrera combined for a .241/.303/.394 slash line and in the first half he had a .223/.275/.352 mark.
It was an open question if Cabrera had found a flaw and corrected it in the middle of last year or if his strong play was nothing more than a short-term BABIP fluke. We still don’t know that answer, as he sits now with a .383 BABIP. In 4,686 PA in the majors, Cabrera holds a lifetime .308 BABIP.
If we look at other areas, we see that Cabrera is making the same contact he has throughout his career, as his K% of 17.2 is almost identical to his 17.3 lifetime mark. He’s not walking quite as much as his lifetime rate but his 6.3 BB% is right in line with last year’s 6.5 mark. One area that is a bit concerning is his power. Cabrera has a lifetime .144 ISO and last year he had a .169 rate. But so far in 2016, Cabrera checks in with a .119 ISO.
However, that may be a bit misleading. Like most Mets, Cabrera did not get off to a great start offensively, as he had just two extra-base hits in his first 42 PA. But in his last five games he has three extra-base hits, including a homer last night, as he and Walker went deep back-to-back in the ninth inning.
Right now Cabrera sits with an .816 OPS. No one expects him to finish the year with that mark. Yet if he matches his career rate of .741, most of would take that, no questions asked.
Nothing has been said yet about defense with our two starting middle infielders. The defensive stats take longer than the offensive ones to stabilize and we’re still dealing with a small sample. That being said, they look strong to the naked eye. Cabrera came in with a poor defensive reputation but he’s seemingly made all of the plays.
Mets fans were used to Wilmer Flores, where every play was an adventure. Yes, he made those plays but too often that was because Lucas Duda successfully did a near-split to keep his foot on the bag while corralling an errant throw. When Cabrera fields the ball, he delivers a strong, accurate throw to first and the out is made without any drama.
The problem is his range. Very few Mets fans are complaining about his range so far but we’ve already seen it be an issue. We can best see this by examining his RZR, or Revised Zone Rating. This may sound like a new stat but it’s been around longer than both UZR and DRS. It’s not as complex as either of those two metrics.
The definition is simple. RZR is the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out. Among qualified shortstops so far in 2016, Freddy Galvis leads the way with a .939 RZR. He’s had 33 balls hit in his zone and he’s made the play 31 times. That’s pretty remarkable.
We have 29 qualified SS right now and the median RZR is Carlos Correa’s .750 mark. He’s had 32 balls hit in his zone and he’s made the play 24 times. Meanwhile, Cabrera ranks 25th. He’s had 39 balls hit in his zone and he’s made the play 25 times for a .641 RZR. Last year, Cabrera ranked 22nd out of 23 qualified SS with a .748 RZR.
Meanwhile, Walker has been pretty reliable getting to balls. He ranks fourth among 29 qualified second basemen with an .861 RZR, making the play on 31 of the 36 balls hit into his zone. Where we’ve seen Walker struggle is with converting double plays. Most recently he bobbled a ball hit right to him on a tailor-made double play ball in the fourth inning. He got one out on the play and wasn’t charged an error. But not getting two meant the Indians scored a run they shouldn’t have in the game Bartolo Colon pitched, one the Tribe won in extra innings.
We’ve seen both Walker and Cabrera contribute offensively, which is great. The memory of a home run is much more powerful than a ball not reached or a double play not turned. The early offensive production of the new middle infield combo has been better than anyone could have expected. If these two hit anything like this for the entire season, the Mets will make a return trip to the playoffs.
If given the chance to sign up for the total production – offense, defense, baserunning – that Cabrera and Walker have delivered so far, every one of us should sign on the dotted line. But we should keep in mind that the defensive play has not been stellar. We did not expect Gold Glove defense and we haven’t gotten it, either. And that’s okay. We should be thrilled with the early results with the understanding of what those results actually are.
Seeing Freddy Galvis cover ss was quite a point of comparison. Cabrera might not make a lot of errors but he really has the range of a coat rack. I’ve seen too many grounders get through between him and second base. Meanwhile, guys like Galvis, Simmons, Lindor, Gregorious (who I wish we could have gotten) can cover beyond second.
You wanted the Mets to get Didi Gregorious? Are you serious? The Diamondbacks wanted Noah Syndergaard for him. Plus, the guy can barely hit better than Ruben Tejada. The only reason he’s hitting respectability in the Bronx is because of the talent he is surrounded by, not to mention the incredible veteran leadership (i.e. Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Mark Texiera, Brett Gardener). (I promise I’m not a Yankee fan)
His defense is sharp, but at what cost? The Mets were better off with Flores last year and are far better off with the veteran Cabrera this year. I will concede that Cabrera’s range is a bit below average, and there is much to be desired there.
To top all that off, if anything really goes wrong we have Gavin Cecchini ready to go by July. Gregorious would have been a colossal mistake for this team.
I’m not suggesting I liked the Dbacks asking price, but at a position where defense is valued over offense, I’ll take Gregorious over Flores or Cabrera any day. 15 homers is nice, but we’re not talking about prime Miguel Tejada here.
Last year, by the advanced numbers, there were three elite defensive SS — Simmons, Crawford and Ahmed. Didi was in the good-but-not-great territory (7.9 UZR/150, +5 DRS). This year in the early going he has a (-4) DRS.
fWAR preferred Didi over Cabrera last year. But if Didi were to somehow finish the year a negative defensive player, he wouldn’t hold that lead.
This reads to me like a fair and accurate assessment.
These guys classically demonstrate Sandy’s predilections. No speed at all. Defense not a high priority.
So when fans complain about the type of offense the Mets deliver — I don’t, but I read the complaints often — the middle infield is where it comes into play. This is the area where teams normally get their faster players, the guys who can “handle the bat,” put balls into play, run the bases, etc.
If fans really wanted a different type of team and offense, this is where the complaints should focus. Though personally, I am not complaining. I’ve come to accept that this is the vision of the Mets GM. When it comes to scoring runs, this is a good offense.
I wonder how often in MLB history two middle infielders have gone back-to-back with HRs?
I recognize that putting the ball and play and running around the bases is an aesthetically appealing form of offense. But the idea that it’s the most efficient type of offense, or the one that all teams should aspire to — I don’t get that at all.
The Mets have scored 51 runs in their last 8 games. I don’t care how they did it but that’s an offense I want to root for. The best 8-game mark for those hit the ball and run the bases Royals this year is 35 runs.
Agreed. They’re a run producing team versus a run manufacturing team and possibly prone to wide swings in production at times but I think it all evens out over time.
So look the Nats and now the Mets are eating at the buffet table of crappy teams and crappy pitching. I really dont think the stretch of wins for either team or the prolific offense is some measure of either team against even middle of the road competition.
When they start facing quality pitching and then homeruns dry up…and the Ks mount…and we leave 15 RISP every day…the dream for a simple base hit will surface.
Before the road trip, you were worried about the Mets ending the month 5 games under .500
Now that seems unlikely, so you denigrate the quality of their wins. They can only play who’s on the schedule. First week of the season they were not hitting against poor teams. Now they are hitting against poor teams. I’ll call that progress and look for more of the same and not look for something new to fret about.
Sure, its progress…but this prolific HR barrage is not “general”. I said the same about the Nats. The Nats dont have a difficult series until May. I want them to hit and win against these teams, but lets be real, dont get used to a continued record setting HR pace.
I also said the Nats could be 15-20 over…and as of today they are 10 with a week left in the month.
And the Mets have picked up a game on them in the last 10
I can’t think of any way to answer the question. But the first guy I thought of was Ernie Banks and he and Gene Baker hit back-to-back homers on 4/23/54 – http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CIN/CIN195404230.shtml
I am not sure how to research this kind of thing (without continuing to be lazy on this Sunday) but I have to believe that Whitaker/Trammell went b2b a lot during their time.
That’s a great call because they batted back-to-back frequently.
Not sure how many times they did it but the first was on 8/1/83
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/DET/DET198308010.shtml
Early on, I think that Trammell batted 9th and Whitaker lead-off.
A very balanced article. The eye test passes for me on defense. It is as expected, nowhere near gold glove but steadier than last year. Their offense will level off toward their career numbers and their career numbers should be what is expected for two, thirty year old players. One observation is that Cabrera is more savy than expected. I thought his RBI bunt hit was so astute.