The Mets finished the month of April with a 15-7 record. Since they started the month 2-5, it seems everyone should be happy with that mark. Last April the Mets had an 11-game winning streak and were the talk of the town. They finished the month with a 15-8 mark. The 2015 club limped into May, having lost four of their last five. This year’s team begins the second month on fire, having scored 87 runs in their last 14 games, an average of 6.2 per game.
What’s gone right:
Generally speaking, just about everything. The offense is clicking, the starters have been good and the relievers have been just as good, if not better. Individually, Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker all have .900+ OPS marks and Curtis Granderson has recovered from a 1-24 start to the season to have an .818 mark. Asdrubal Cabrera and David Wright are either meeting or exceeding expectations. Juan Lagares looks much improved defensively from a year ago.
You can say something positive about all 12 of the pitcher currently on the club. Noah Syndergaard has been a beast and in smaller sample sizes, Jim Henderson and Logan Verrett may have been even better. While Jacob deGrom missed time and hasn’t been dominating, he sits at 3-0 with a 1.02 ERA. Much like deGrom, Jeurys Familia may not seem overpowering but he has a 2.25 ERA and 8 Saves. Steven Matz had an ugly debut but has ripped off three strong starts.
What’s gone wrong:
Neither of the team’s catchers has hit and Travis d’Arnaud is back on the disabled list. And that’s about it.
Oh, sure, you can say that Lucas Duda hasn’t been great or that Matt Harvey is not electric but Duda has a .316 AVG with 4 HR and 9 RBIs in his last 11 games while Harvey has won back-to-back games with 12 Ks in 11 IP and a 3.27 ERA despite a .406 BABIP. It doesn’t seem fair to point to them as something gone wrong.
No, the only other things to accurately fall into that category is the play of Wilmer Flores and Rafael Montero. Flores hit a homer yesterday, so you can hope that this is the beginning of things turning around for him. But he also gave up an error that allowed three unearned runs to score. No one can look good with a .095 BABIP but since he’s a reserve who depends on his bat to be useful, it’s hard to paint this with a happy face.
Montero got called up and turned in two ugly bullpen outings before being sent back to the minors. Just like with Flores, it was a tiny sample and nothing with which to solely make a judgment. But the reality is that Montero is so far back on the depth chart that it’s hard to see him making a contribution with the Mets this year. Or perhaps ever.
The long-term outlook for Montero is bleak. And is it any better for Flores? He still has value for the 2016 club as a caddy for Wright. But if Wright were to say retire, would the Mets install Flores full-time at third or would they go out and look for an upgrade? My money would be on the latter. The ship has sailed for him at SS, with Cabrera playing well and Amed Rosario coming up behind him. Perhaps 2B is an option but it’s far from a sure thing that he would get the position in 2017, even if Walker leaves in free agency.
So, the Mets have two young guys who seem to have value but not much future with the MLB club. Do they have a moral obligation to trade either or both of these players to another team where they’ll get a shot? That may be overstating things for the Mets but certainly if they receive a fair trade offer for either player, they should strongly consider it.
While Montero has been a huge disappointment, he has been acceptable as a SP, with a 4.07 ERA in 48.2 IP in the majors. Last year the average starter had a 4.05 ERA in the National League and this year the mark has been 4.17 for SP. Wouldn’t the Giants be better off taking a flyer on Montero rather than hoping for rebounds from the ghosts of Matt Cain (7.00 ERA) and Jake Peavy (8.61 ERA)? And the Giants are hardly the only club.
Coming into the year, the talk was that the Mets were going to use Flores as a super-sub. Perhaps because of his poor start that hasn’t happened. He’s gotten six starts at the corners but zero in the middle infield. And with the play of Cabrera and Walker, we shouldn’t be advocating for a big change there, either.
Flores put up respectable numbers last year in mostly full-time duty as a SS, posting a .703 OPS in 510 PA. FanGraphs shows 29 qualified SS in the majors right now and 17 of those are beneath what Flores produced last year. Of course it’s a lot different with a middle infielder, where you have to strongly consider defense. But Flores, with his combination of age, major league experience and ability to play multiple positions, should be attractive to numerous clubs.
The Mets aren’t in the business of making other teams better. They should only make a deal that makes sense for them. But it’s not hard to imagine once the trade deadline approaches that the Mets may make a similar deal that they did last year, when they imported Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe – two veterans used to producing even while sitting on the bench. Either of those players might be a better fit for the 2016 club than Flores and both would be more valuable than Montero.
If the Mets were to trade Flores at the deadline for someone of real value to the team, I could see it happening. “Someone of real value” would also powerfully suggest that the trade partner would actually have a role in mind for Wilmer, so there’s that. But I doubt Flores really wants to go, even with his wildly inconsistent playing time and performance.
I’ll say it here for the record: whoever the Mets eventually send Montero to is going to get a bargain. Not a Johann Santana to Minnesota bargain; but maybe something on the order of Rick Reed to the Mets, that sort of bargain. He can pitch, he just needs to straighten himself out, and that probably means repetitions away from a pennant race.
Moral obligation? You’re kidding right? They have an obligation to field the best 25 man team possible period and morality has nothing to do with it. Wilmer’s versitility gives them a very useful bench piece and during a long season thems need starting depth in case of injury.
No, I’m absolutely not kidding.
Wilmer’s versatility isn’t worth squat if he can’t hit with sporadic playing time because he’s not an asset defensively. You can say it’s too soon to make that determination.
But if a guy is capable of being a starter in the majors, which I think both Flores and Montero are capable, then if a team has no spot for them as a starter, they’re holding them back. The easiest thing in the world to do is say, “Tough!” but just because it’s easy doesn’t make it right.
Well, the likelihood of either or both Flores and Montero being kept or traded is at least in part determined by the terms of the collective bargaining agreement, which also, incidentally, puts Wilmer’s compensation at something north of half a million dollars. I say the agreement is a mess on several fronts, but it is their framework for doing business.
Are you saying that the Mets should be more moral than the Owners and the Union? I wish you luck with that one.
There’s what you’re contractually bound to do and there’s doing the right thing.
They’re not the same thing.
I think it’s important to do both. I realize I’m in the minority here.
Cabrera is not a young player, with some leg injuries in his past, and it is crazy that TC hasn’t rested him yet. The hope, the plan, the intention is to win games in late October.
It feels as if TC is afraid to play Wilmer or rest anyone.
That’s been a criticism of TC since Day 1. Any veteran who produces is going to play. And sometimes producing isn’t a necessity, either.
Thats a partly true assessment Brian, and really aimed at 2-4 years ago when we were giving ABs to Bobby Abreu and the like. But look at today. We are a competitive team that needs players that produce. Our aged middle infield is outstanding. I would hate to imagine if we were figuring out Herrera and Flores as the middle. And yet the youth is pitching and Conforto is taking a lead role in the team…so hes not just doing it for fun…if you can produce you will play.
When this team stunk, every young player deserved the time to see if they had the moxy to be big leaguers, and for that I am still angry we saw so many wretched has beens on the field under the guise of “we dont have time to lose” or whatever the hell TC said.
Wilmers infield versatility is his greatest value, I don’t see this team looking to move him. Now Montero will almost certainly be traded for a need at the deadline probably a veteran bench peace ala KJ barring injury. Now injury may force a Wilmer trade but with the uncertainty of wright and a week 3rd base class in free agency, especially after the beltre extension I don’t see this team willingly surrendering their safety net.
The only “moral obligation” this team has is to deliver a competitive team to their customer, the fans now that the rebuild is over while protecting their players from injury and treating them appropriately when one happens. Beyond that the only thing owed the players is that the team meet payroll on payday. “Moral Obligations” like “Moral Victories” have little to no value on a contending team.
I don’t know how you’ve convinced yourself that Harvey hasn’t been a colossal disappointment so far…
He has an ERA near 5, a WHIP of more than 1.5. His K-rate is at an abysmal 6.7 k/9. Per the official definition, he has 2 QS, per mine he has only 1.
Those numbers would be considered “gone wrong” even for a #3-4 starter, let alone a pitcher of Harvey’s caliber
Totally agree. And its been a surprising April, with the starting rotation being pretty much a disappointment considering they have been touted as the rotation of a generation. What we’ve seen is a lot of Zack Wheeler…5-6 innings, and placing a ton of innings on the pen.
He was not good at all his first three games.
He’s made improvements the last two. If you want to penalize him for style points, that’s okay, I guess.
3 bad ones + 2 “improvement” ones = that’s ok with you?
Well if you’re using that rationale, Wilmer has a .705 OPS in his last 12 PA after a .217 OPS in his first 19, so therefore he shouldn’t be a disappointment according to you.
Two starts for a pitcher > 12 PA
Edit: Updated for correct PA
I can’t imagine Wilmer Flores having any trade value unless he starts really hitting. And if he does that then the Mets will have no motivation to trade him since he’s still young, affordable, and can play four positions albeit poorly.
The scary thing about the April Flores was that it seemed he had morphed into Eric Campbell, the sequel. Other than Flores’ ability to man SS the two players were identical in being poor at 1b, 2b, 3b, and in the batters box.
Flores sucks, get rid of him. Trade him and Montero to the Indians for their backup catcher.
These guys are everything that’s wrong with this team. The Mets may be undefeated if these two scrubs could do their job after being sitting around for a week at a time.
If we could get a solid MLB catcher for the pair it would be worth it. Neither will have a long-term every day effect on the team.
What does a solid MLB catcher look like?
The talk of Trading Flores Right now gets Me to respond to your blog…but it has very little to do with reality. As structured, they will expect and need him to produce 350-400 versatile and productive AB’s.
He is a victim of sporadic PT, and a slow start—some of this is due to the early season schedule.
Montero has no value now…… but there is room to provide him innings at AAA to build his value, both as a Met and as a Trade piece. If he were traded or released, that’s the same scenario he’d see with any other team. If he pitches well he will get a shot—if he doesn’t he won’t. His best outcomes and interests are driven by performance,,,nothing to do with moral obligations.
If Flores were to be dealt you are looking at 350 PA of Campbell. Who I am fine with as a 25th man but would prefer he not get the bulk of playing time off the bench.
Flores needs to adapt to his role like Lagares has. If he continues to play poorly then the Mets will be looking for an upgrade for his role. Flores would then take Campbell’s spot as the 25th man and Campbell would be the casualty. 32 at bats in his new role is not enough time to make the evaluation. Flores best position is probably second base where the throws are shorter. Flores may find major league success at that position if he can beat out Dilson Herrera in 2017, which I don’t think he can.
Montero has had some brief opportunities and has not seized them. If he is a major league starter it will probably occur with another organization.
The feeling I get is that both players will be major leaguers for other organziations where the competition for spots are easier.